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“A Mild Recession”

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Re: “A Mild Recession”

#111

Post by roflyear »

atlgator wrote: post #29
epups wrote: post #22

Honestly I don't think the issue is that another recession is coming. It's going to be the fourth or fifth serious economic crisis I've experienced in my lifetime. What worries me is that the quality of our political leadership and in general our ability to diagnose and address complex issues is, in my view, at an all-time low.

They are downplaying this whole thing heading into the midterm elections. Inflation is transitory, it's the supply chain, it's Putin, it's gas station owners and oil companies, we're doing a soft landing. These are all cover stories for doing nothing. Low interest rates + $5T in bond purchases fueled remarkable growth and all time high employment. Raising interest rates and selling those bonds will do the opposite. T…

I mean, gas is a huge part of it. Take away fuel costs and you're left with housing costs and that's really it.

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#112

Post by roflyear »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #9
throwaway5959 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please show on the S&P 500 graph where buying to sell now hasn’t been a great opportunity in the last 100 years minus the last twelve months.

Surely you believe there is some P/E where a company is a bad investment?

Not in isolation no. How would that make sense?

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#113

Post by RickJWagner »

UkrainianJew wrote: post #93
epups wrote: post #22

Honestly I don't think the issue is that another recession is coming. It's going to be the fourth or fifth serious economic crisis I've experienced in my lifetime. What worries me is that the quality of our political leadership and in general our ability to diagnose and address complex issues is, in my view, at an all-time low.

The quality of the political leadership is a direct consequence of what average people want from their leadership. For the past decade or so the modus operandi has been: 1. Print more money, give it to bureaucrats and corporations 2. Toss in some non-monetary issue that will piss of ~50% of the population, while making the other ~50% feel entitled. 3. Promise one half to serve their interests by punishing the other h…

Yes!

Notice the Andrew Yang fans are oddly silent lately. Nobody cares to dig too deeply into the 'student loan forgiveness' issue, either.

Free money isn't really free.

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#114

Post by Shikadi »

jpadkins wrote: post #44
Shikadi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people believe this? The earth has limited resources

why do you believe wealth or value is limited by natural resources? That hasn't been the case for a very long time. I'd say the limiting factor on wealth is smart, productive people's time (given we are in the information age, and the bottleneck for value creation is specialized humans, not raw resources).

So you think smart, productive people's time is infinite? People require resources to live

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#115

Post by Shikadi »

lesuorac wrote: post #60
Shikadi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people believe this? The earth has limited resources

The earth having limited resources is just the inverse of the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Eventually we'll hit that limit [1] but the idea that its going to happen soon is undefended. The issue right now for growth is that we can't mine the earth's resources fast enough right not that we've used it up. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

Constant growth is not the same as infinite growth. Constant growth is the state of the economy now, believing in infinite growth is believing it can continue this way forever

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#116

Post by lesuorac »

formerkrogemp wrote: post #67
lesuorac wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The earth having limited resources is just the inverse of the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Eventually we'll hit that limit [1] but the idea that its going to happen soon is undefended. The issue right now for growth is that we can't mine the earth's resources fast enough right not that we've used it up. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

Its hilarious how often people who bring up "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent" also believe in the free market being capable of solving any- and everything. Claiming breathlessly that the efficient market hypothesis is true while also stating the market can be irrationally/inefficiently allocated longer than someone who knows better can remain solvent. Efficiency is not usually tied t…

In this context, I'm strictly arguing there isn't a problem that needs to be solved. While there is a limit on resources, we haven't reached that limit nor will we in the short term. So, even if the market is using our current resources inefficiently it doesn't matter because there's an excess of supply (in a raw materials aspect, sure there's a chip shortage but the earth didn't run out of sand).

Re: “A Mild Recession”

#117

Post by mrcheesebreeze »

pwinnski wrote: post #55
mrcheesebreeze wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats why if you have reserve funds they need to not be in us banks, they can close down and go out of business in a recession. Take physical wealth and move somewhere else if a really bad one happens.

That is not true, though? Or rather, banks can indeed shut down, but that's what the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is for. The FDIC insures up to $250,000 per customer, per bank. So there is not much safer place to keep emergency funds than a US bank.

actually banks are one of the worst ways to store money for real emergencies. In the event of a bad recession you will quickly find the banks are more fragile than you thought.

Multiple times in history people who thought the banks couldn't fail saw they crashed hard.

Furthermore as other posters said, inflation can make you money worthless quickly.

If you want an emergency fund, and I mean societal collapse proof funds, get physical wealth and store it.

Silver and gold have been useful in times of war, people who lived through the bosnian genocide said they used physical wealth that was still useful to get necessities.

I am not trying to be a prepper nut, but its good to prepare somewhat for a bad recession or a problem with violence that could happen.

just get a little, a few bars, and you are set incase anything goes wrong.

It'll never go bad in value, it'll never be irretrievable due to financial problems, it'll never be destroyed by rot.

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