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Remember that Stripe changed its RSU grant structure a year or so ago, so this won’t negatively affect newer employees. Stripe gives out a fixed amount of $$ value of stock each year now. The typical recent senior hire will get around $200k a year in stock. Now that the valuation is lower, they’ll be granted more stock units than before, which is good. Getting granted fewer stock units at a ‘fake’ higher valuation wo…
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The current market so far . Interest rates will rise and CC transactions will migrate over time to less costly rails starting in the next 12-18 months (although Radar, Identity, and other value add products are likely to see continued use and rev growth). Imho, Stripe should've IPO'd at the top ~12+_ months ago. EDIT: @pbriet (HN throttling, can't reply directly to your comment) In the US, Zelle does $490B worth of v…
Credit cards, compared to Zelle or even higher-dollar direct-transfer things, have a pretty big moat: * for people who don't have the money up front, it covers "spending money that isn't in their account today" (for better or for worse). BNPL seems like worth paying attention to from this front, though. * for people who do have the money up front, why move to something with more of an immediate hit to my bank account…
With regards to your fraud point, you assume a level of sophistication of your average financial services consumer that doesn’t exist in my experience. CC surcharges will allow consumers to self sort regarding whether they want the CC transaction benefits (and will pay for them) or not.
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Why would they need to IPO? Is liquidity stopping them from building anything right now or growing? Why give up any amount of power for a strong private company? Stripe could stay private forever (or 20 years which is the avg lifespan I think of private companies)
They’ve hired 1000s of people with promises of an IPO and currently worthless RSUs. They would need to address that with a change in pay structure and likely some large bonuses up front. But otherwise agree with your reasoning.
Remember that Stripe changed its RSU grant structure a year or so ago, so this won’t negatively affect newer employees. Stripe gives out a fixed amount of $$ value of stock each year now. The typical recent senior hire will get around $200k a year in stock. Now that the valuation is lower, they’ll be granted more stock units than before, which is good. Getting granted fewer stock units at a ‘fake’ higher valuation wo…
isn't that $200k/year in stock worthless anyways?
Oh dear. Not even Stripe is safe from the market downturn and they are cutting their valuation by 28% - from $98B to $74B. It's extremely early to write them off but perhaps they should have IPO'd in 2019. Since they didn't, they had to wait it out during 2020, 2021, etc. As long as they are profitable, then they will certainly survive this with ease. But overall, no-one is safe from this and we will see how the mark…
I don’t envy Stripe’s position. I said as much on Twitter a few weeks ago. They put off IPO (for some reason), carried a huge internal private valuation, and have 1000s of employees sitting on paper RSUs waiting that IPO. Now it’s going to be either impossible to do or, if they force it, will be at a significant reduction of their private valuation.
And if they are in fact a 100B company then supposedly at some point the public market should price them "correctly".
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Stripe's growth is still pretty strong. I don't know why you think every tech stock has to move lockstep. Some companies are far better positioned to weather a downturn than others.
So is Square’s growth. When the entire sector you’re in takes a 50%+ dive you have to be pretty naive to think your own valuation shouldn’t do the same.
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They’ve hired 1000s of people with promises of an IPO and currently worthless RSUs. They would need to address that with a change in pay structure and likely some large bonuses up front. But otherwise agree with your reasoning.
If it’s RSUs why are they worthless?