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Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

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Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Microtransactions required to activate heated seats in your car. I'm sorry, but the fact that this is the first thing you list under "grim" is just comical to me. This isn't even a 1st world problem, this is a 0.1-world problem.

It's not that specific thing, it's that thing being a signal for what's to come. And it's not even the only signal.

To expand on this, it's the capitalization of every aspect of human existence. I simply want less capitalization in my life. There is essentially no way out - either I can submit to subscriptions or I can pay a premium to opt out. There are no alternatives. I don't want to go live in the woods. I just want to live without the constant barrage of the micro-threats disguised as micro-transactions. It has become all consuming.

I thought we would have some control over how the world turned out, but no, if there is an opportunity to extract money, I'll be forever at the losing end of that equation. I want to opt out in a system that provides no means to do so.

I wish there was a way to identify and protest the product managers in charge of making these decisions. Hell, I'd pay to subscribe to that service.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#72
Frankly, because optimism is pretty much the only thing that has a chance of making the world of tomorrow better than the world of today. We have to be optimistic (while realist), there is no other way so future generations have a chance.

Turning off the news helps a lot as well imho. Our species isn't built to carry the weight of the world on our shoulders, and it deeply impact our mental health.

If I look locally, I find a lot of reasons to be optimistic

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#74
* the global reduction of poverty

* the potential of our civilization if we could all get better education. in that context, automation is an opportunity, that, if recognized, will allow us to focus more on artistic endeavors and scientific research. education for that is possible and affordable. all it takes is political will to actually do that. imagine what we could achieve if everyone was highly educated.

* the potential the internet has unleashed in allowing people to become creative and share their creativity. yes, there is a lot of trash, but among that trash there are gems, and more great content and code is being self published now than was ever published before.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#75
Hm, for me, fighting climate change is something I'm starting to look vaguely optimistic about.

Some people are very defeatist there - china is just going to pollute more for every reduction so nothing matters and similar arguments. And yes, germany has messed up a lot by exiting nuclear power before exiting coal, but the nuclear train over here is gone. And yes, it's going to be hard, and we'll probably miss the marks and all our lives will change with it.

But on the other hand, looking around in Germany and Hamburg, there's lots of projects starting, progressing or even maturing aiming at reducing the use of fossil fuels. It starts to feel like a lot of systems are starting to slowly start moving.

For example, our local district heating provider is hard at work getting local industries hooked up to re-use their heat, we might see our first geothermal heat plant this year or next year (and it didn't take that long to work), they have concrete plans to replace their last coal-powered heater with several new green systems including one I have to read up on - some station to extract heat from the Elbe herself. Other plants are designed with green hydrogen in mind.

German car manufacturers are finally starting to apply their experience to electric vehicles. The local public transport is trialing electric busses. Recently there was a post on reddit of someone electrifying an asphalt laying machine. The city is funding a project to support EV charging ports in underground garages, which is supposed to dump the surplus of solar and wind power into electric cars when we have it and to throttle the charging of EVs past a certain level if we don't have surplus power.

We're also seeing different prototypes for large-scale power storage being built and going online. Are they all going to work? I don't think so. Are they the solutions we will use in 5 - 10 years? I also don't think so. But the best way to quickly get two good ideas is to try a dozen bad ideas and toss most of them when they fail.

Also interesting, a lot of different new, and established companies are starting to experiment more and more by diversifying their goods with vegetarian alternatives, or entirely new vegetarian ideas. And sure, it would have a bigger impact if half the world crashed straight into veganism, but that won't happen. And then I'd be happier if campaigns and goods like this gradually reduce the overall meat consumption.

I don't know if we can steer the crazy planet heating and climate back into a safe situation. Probably not. But it starts to feel like a lot of systems especially in Europe are starting to engage the problem at many levels. And that's a lot of scientific and engineering minds suddenly looking at the practical problems and doing something about it.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#77

Why do you believe that the world of tomorrow will be better than the world of today? Because the world of today is mostly better than the world of the past. OK, sure, you can find (or manufacture) counter-points to that by being extremely selective in what you consider "the past", but on balance, technological and social/cultural advancement have made the world a better place. So there are some peaks and valleys in…

Fusion creates heat, not electricity. Turning that heat into electricity is not costless, and puts a lower bound on the price of fusion energy. So we're never going to get "nearly limitless, clean, cheap energy" from fusion. But we do have a great upcoming source of cheap energy from the big fusion reactor in the sky. Solar power has been dropping in cost 80% per decade for the last 50 years, and that looks to contin…

There are ideas and projects aiming to go straight from fusion to electricity, maybe through photoelectric effect but without the water heat cycle. Those may be orders of magnitude harder than "normal fusion" but still - people work on that.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#78
I think the best medicine may be giving up attempts at perceiving an optimistic future. I don't have so much 'reasons for optimism' anymore as a list of negative trends that might still be reversible. Cf the amazing _Cruel Optimism_, by Lauren Berlant, on how straining to see good things that aren't there is considered harmful: https://www.dukeupress.edu/cruel-optimism

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#79
There is Mean World Syndrome[0] which can occur when you're constantly exposed to the news, and social media just exacerbates it, and feeds off our fear-based response. Just limit yourself to it, and there are even news sites that talk about all the positive things happening in the world, so read them instead. Technology is being abused, yes, but it has incredible potential if used right, and we need to teach people how to approach technology, not just leave them vulnerable and exposed. The Internet is this enormous rabbithole to get lost in, and we have to train people to navigate it, and be skeptical of all the disinformation and scams out there. Even savvy people get hacked and scammed, because they think they're invulnerable to various attacks. Education is key here.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#80
It's easy to look at things today and point to dozens of examples of why to be pessimistic.

But if you look at the past, the broad trend is continual improvement. If you were alive at any point in the past, I'm sure you could have also pointed to dozens of examples of why to be pessimistic – even over the course of years, decades, centuries at some point, especially in the distant past.

I don't think you've outlined reasons to be pessimistic about the future, just examples of things that may not be so good. IMO reasons to be pessimistic would be more fundamental about why the future will be different from the past.

Your point about 'outlining some positive vision of the world we're building with a rough idea of how to get there' is also misguided. That’s generally not how progress happens beyond a certain scale and over long periods of time.

Complex systems aren't designed, they evolve. What we do have is millions of brilliant people across an ever-increasing number of different specialties who may have visions of how to progress their corner of human knowledge in inches. That all that comes together, with varying levels of success, to make the future. Sometimes we take steps back, but the trend is always forward, because that’s what humans do.

But to your deeper point, none of it is predetermined and it is up to us to make it happen. And therein lies my answer to your question: The human drive towards progress is what got us here and I have no reason to believe it has fundamentally changed enough to make me pessimistic.

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