Live data from Hacker News

Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

axios.com

591–600 of 1001 posts

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#591

One piece of the puzzle I'm struggling with in all of this is why if housing is so expensive and rents so high are more houses not being built? Surely the incentive is there, what's going wrong?

NIMBYism. The incentive is definitely there but the issue is that existing landowners don’t want any more buildings. After all - more supply while keeping demand fixed hurts their profitability.

You need eminent domain from the government to fix this. At this point - it’s complete class warfare and landowners are fucking over many generations.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just letting them do what they want when it affects me directly Unless someone straight up breached their contract to evict and give "your" apartment to someone else, you were not affected "directly" by anything. > I have my desires, which requires placing demands on their behavior Desires? Is this really the word that you want to use? The more you write, the more you are displaying your sense of entitlement. > (yo…

EDIT: Ok, after the parent edit I am convinced you’re a little bit more reasonable, however, I can tell you’ve already made up your mind and are more interested in defending your position (which you haven’t actually ever elaborated) and making reductive claims about the character of your opponents (that they are just “complaining” or “entitled”) than actually having a discussion. You seem to want your interlocutor to…

> I can tell you’ve already made up your mind

When this is your first statement following your attempted "apology", how can anyone be interested in continuing with the conversation?

> You seem to want your interlocutor to follow all the polite rules of discussion while abandoning them all yourself.

It's not about "politeness". It's about honesty. I'd rather have a honest-but-dry conversation than a pleasantly-dishonest one.

> your position (which you haven’t actually ever elaborated)

My position (if it couldn't even be called that) is that NYC is a victim of its own (relative) success compared to all the other cities in the US. The best way to get NYC to become more affordable would be to rescue other cities. There are just too many people with too much money chasing not enough houses in urban areas that are desirable, so of course the prices will go up in the places that are.

Rent control is not going to solve this. It's only going to create a privileged class that is going to cling on to their old leases. Landlords will have zero incentive to invest. Developers will have less incentive to build, and then only the existing stock will continue to be around.

It's supply that needs to be fixed. Also, it may seem counter-intuitive at first, but to fix cities in North America you need to get rid of suburbia.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#594
post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. I come from a rural village where I could leave my bicycle unlocked over night at the center of the village and it wouldn't get stolen. When I moved to a city, one realization I made was that cycling is just a lot less convenient if you have to worry about your bicycle getting stolen. Also I can't leave my home door unlocked when I go somewhere (and thus have to remember to take the keys with me). I think sma…

There are big city fixes for this. For example, most big cities offer bikeshares with docking stations all over the most popular places. So you can just use one of those bikes and not have to worry about theft.

In SF those aren't very cheap, and you also replace the anxiety of "will my bike be stolen" with "will there be any bikes left when I need one?" and "will there be any docking stations available near my destination?"

I use bike shares opportunistically, but they are not a reliable mode of transport.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#595
post #526
post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not how it's working out right now in NZ. Interest rates up. House prices down (-20% in my city). Number of available rentals up (almost doubled in some markets). Rental prices down (looks like around -10%). It looks like underutilised housing is being flushed out due to high servicing costs. The jig is up.

Interesting, where are those rentals coming from? Is it just an overall drop in demand for any housing? Intuitively to me, if you make one thing harder to do (buy a house), unless people disappear or you suddenly build more rentals, they go in the other direction and create more strain there (renting). Where are these people living if they can't buy but are renting less? Are both demands are dropping?

I think that it's a case of underutilised properties being flushed out.

No one really considers it, but in a booming market you might be more likely to have a higher percentage of underutilised properties. When the market turns, those properties that were making money just by virtue of existing now lose money. A second home or a holiday home is one example. A house being slowly renovated is another. Plain old land-banked properties, etc.

Put it this way. As the property market has boomed, the proportion of properties owned by investors has increased. Because only investors will underutilise a property (homeowners occupy it by definition), the proportion of underutilised properties increased. When the market turns, capital gains look less certain, and holding costs increase, investors try to get out. The underutilised properties get flushed out.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I like that the city is generally safer than the rest of America. Coming from New Hampshire: this is just fantastically untrue. NYC is about one hundred times more violent than where I live. It is so thoroughly not the same that I can usually tell when people come from cities simply based on how nervous they are. I think most people don't realize how badly it affects them, or how violent cities are versus "the rest…

100x is shocking, so I explored a bit. Over 2010-2020 Amherst PD reported ~5 violent crimes per year[1], in a town of ~10000, or about 50 per 100000. NYPD reported ~49k per year over the same period[ibid], on about 8.3m residents, or about about 590 per 100000. So about 11x difference in per-capita reported-to-local-PD crime. I'll admit I'm surprised it's still an order of magnitude, I share GP's sensibility that the…

"Violent crime" is not a consistently defined or tracked category across cities, so it isn't comparable. The NYPD has a notoriously... loose definition of "violent crime", to the point where it counts things that no reasonable person would be thinking of when they hear that term.

For this reason, researchers typically use homocides to make comparisons, because that's consistently defined and tracked across jurisdictions, and because it's harder to manipulate those statistics when recording.

NYC - particularly Manhattan - has a much lower homocide rate than other places.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#597
post #493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before I start with my comment, I'll remind everyone that averages skew very high when there are outliers. NYC has a high quantity of extremely high rent tenants. I wish more news articles used medians and median per capita when discussing rents. The main point I want to make: even with those high rents, we tend to forget how much our cars cost us, directly and indirectly. Directly: AAA's average new car TCO is close…

> AAA's average new car TCO is close to $10,000 a year. Multiply by two for a typical couple and that's $1600 a month you could dump into your NYC apartment's high rent. First, you can get by just fine without a new car. My car was $26k new - 18 years ago. I’ve put another $10k over the years in maintenance (tires, oil, repairs). Insurance is $500/year. Gas is maybe $2k/year at $4/gal. Not even close to $10k/year. Th…

Here are some numbers that are not focused on new cars specifically. If the $10k figured I gave you is high, you can still expect that Americans are still going to spend thousands per year on their car, maybe around $5,000 a year. [1]

Insurance $500 a year as you stated, and then you've got a typical driver driving somewhere around 15,000 miles a year if not more. [2] If you've got a 30MPG car [2.1] at $4.50 a gallon [2.2], you're paying $2,250 just to fuel it, before any expenses for maintenance, oil changes, tires, etc. If you've got a car payment like 35% of Americans, the average payment for a used car is around $500 [2.3], but since we're dealing with averages and vehicles whose lifespans exceed their loans, maybe we can just go ahead and cut that in half to $250/month.

Don't forget that the poorest Americans get the worst auto loan rates, so their payment may be pretty high for a car that has already depreciated significantly. They're losing money to interest that isn't even technically being put into the vehicle itself.

So our grand TCO for this hypothetical car is $5,750, which is really close to the averages that you see in my first reference. [1]

I think this is a really, really reasonable ballpark estimate.

How are you supposed to own only one car if you are a dual-income household in the suburbs and work two different jobs at different locations? Owning one car per person is not a "luxury" in this country, it is just about the norm (1.88 cars per person in the USA). [3]

If it was a "luxury," the entire freaking country wouldn't be doing it.

You really think NYC has a lower obesity rate as an effect rather than a cause, as in, all the people with obesity just say "well, I guess I can't live here anymore, I'll go move to the suburbs?" Do you have any information to back up that type of thinking?

New York (due to NYC) is the most physically active state according to FitBit, and you're gonna jump on here and claim that this completely disconnected obesity rates? [4]

It's not hard to figure out that higher levels activity help prevent obesity. Calories in calories out, walking and walking up and down stairs burns more calories than sitting. [4.1]

The 65+ commuters in NYC are actually the most active commuting segment of the population and over half walk 10 blocks or more per day. [5] I have a hunch they might still be alive and productive because they're so active!

NYC's subway system will be 95% accessible by 2055, [6] which is really quite soon on the scale of city planning and development. About 25% of stations are currently accessible, and really a subway system 25% the size of NYC's system is still a vast transit network. This also doesn't include New York's vast bus system, which is essentially 100% accessible. Tell me, how do you expect the vision impaired to get around in areas that require cars?

When it comes to your point about getting out to the mountains, it's important to note that NYC has plenty of transit-accessible outdoor spaces, including perhaps the best city park in the entire world, Central Park. NYC is extremely well-connected to regional rail and other methods of transit to all sorts of destinations, including outdoor spaces. [6.1] And, yes, New Yorkers can rent a car once in a while, it's a lot cheaper than owning one! They can even stop paying for their MTA fares while they're out of town, while car owners continue to pay for insurance even if they're spending time away from home. A lot of those car owners are even paying daily to park their car at the airport!

Last point: How hard is it really to live in a small apartment, when most people are drowning in clutter and wasteful purchases? [7] How much space in your house is dedicated to storing your vehicle? How much space in your home is dedicated to storing things you rarely or never use? Holiday decorations?

[1] https://www.move.org/average-cost-owning-a-car/

[2] https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-miles-dri...

[2.1] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-fuel-efficiency-us-light...

I'm also being generous, the national average is 25MPG not 30MPG.

[2.2] https://gasprices.aaa.com/

[2.3] https://www.finder.com/car-loan-statistics

[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/551403/number-of-vehicle...

[4] https://www.ibtimes.com/do-new-yorkers-walk-10000-steps-day-...

[4.1] https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/obesity-prevention-source/obesi...

[5] https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/survey/survey-...

[6] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/nyregion/nyc-subway-acces...

[6.1] https://www.outdoors.org/resources/amc-outdoors/adventures/8...

[7] https://www.thesimplicityhabit.com/statistics-on-clutter-tha...

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100x is shocking, so I explored a bit. Over 2010-2020 Amherst PD reported ~5 violent crimes per year[1], in a town of ~10000, or about 50 per 100000. NYPD reported ~49k per year over the same period[ibid], on about 8.3m residents, or about about 590 per 100000. So about 11x difference in per-capita reported-to-local-PD crime. I'll admit I'm surprised it's still an order of magnitude, I share GP's sensibility that the…

"Violent crime" is not a consistently defined or tracked category across cities, so it isn't comparable. The NYPD has a notoriously... loose definition of "violent crime", to the point where it counts things that no reasonable person would be thinking of when they hear that term. For this reason, researchers typically use homocides to make comparisons, because that's consistently defined and tracked across jurisdicti…

[deleted]

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NYC is generally safer than the rest of America. NH is typically the safest region in the entire country. But the truth is that there are high numbers of relatively rural areas that are substantially more dangerous than NYC. Also, I think that crimes/mile is fairly un-instructive because of how much the legal boundaries of a city shift/as well as the amount that a person will travel in a given location (I live in NYC…

> NYC is generally safer than the rest of America. I don't think that's true: NYC is at 5.8 violent crimes per 1,000, and the national median sits at 4.0. That's 45% more violent than the median. That's not small! I feel like some PR firm must have implanted this idea in everyone's minds that NYC is somehow magically safer, but it's not showing up in the stats, and if the stats are skewed by reporting its almost cert…

I don’t think the relative percent is a good way to compare 5.8 per 1000 vs 4.0 per 1000. It can easily be flipped to show that NYC is only 0.18% less safe than the national median.

Re: Manhattan rents cross $5k threshold for first time

#600
post #390

The problem for me, as a long time NYC resident, is that there's no other place in America I want to live even with work from home as a possibility. I like mass transit. I like not owning a car. I like that the city is generally safer than the rest of America. I like that it's the center for tech on the east coast, the arts for the entire country, and finance for most of the world. I like that we generally get along…

I feel like the main deterrent for boston and chicago is the weather but I could be wrong.
Post reply on HN