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Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

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Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#311

Post by collyw »

kumarvvr wrote: post #15

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

Pushed into by the WEF. Now memoryholed.

https://web.archive.org/web/20190122012624/https://www.wefor...

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#312

Post by denton-scratch »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #161
soldehierro wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe me, the organic transition had nothing to do with agricultural practices and all to do with economics, with the logic being that fertilizer was an expensive import, and by banning fertilizer they could hemorrhage foreign exchange reserves a little less. Of course, they also earned a lot less because the bone-headed transition lead to a marked reduction in yield, only worsening the forex problem the ban of agr…

Very honestly, it might have worked out fine - organic produce fetches a much higher price overseas. If its already a somewhat niche product like tea, organic produce might go even higher and make up for the loss in yield. For Sri Lanka, it was the perfect storm of covid decimating tourism AND overseas demand for their produce. Without Covid, they might have been able to stay afloat on tourism dollars until the organ…

> niche product like tea

Perhaps your niches are smaller than mine. Some people regard tea as an indispensable bulk commodity.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#313

Post by _7ezv »

cm2187 wrote: post #258
nibbleshifter wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is virtually no need to drive a private automobile in Paris if you are able bodied. The same applies to Berlin, London, and many other places.

...and have a taste for tunnels stinking piss, overcrowded trains, very long and sordid corridors (Chatelet).

Don't know about Chatelet but the last time I was to London (which is not more than a year ago), the tunnels and trains seemed fine. Yes, it gets crowded during the morning peak hours in some of the busy routes but apart from that, they seem to be really good. Makes me sad that most other cities do not provide that kind of easily accessible public transport.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#314

Post by tialaramex »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #265
londons_explore wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a whole government department to answer your questions: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food... Result: The UK grows enough wheat alone to give enough calories to support its population, with plenty to spare. It also produces all the major food groups in quite large quantities. If cut off from the world, the UK people wouldn't starve, but they might have to switch out their caviar f…

The UK is not self-sufficient in wheat, and depending on harvests has to imports millions of tons. "Enough wheat to give enough calories to everyone" only means that in an extreme situation and with very strict rationing nutritional needs could be met. Which is self-sufficiency at the limit only.

Indeed. In World War II Britain was dependant upon food imports even with rationing. After a period in which German U-boats happened to be unusually effective at destroying civilian transports, it got down to maybe a week's supply.

The government assumption was that - once the population realises they're going to be starved - they will revolt and insist on agreeing terms with Germany in exchange for food. Given what we later saw in Japan (which did starve its civilian population and they did not in fact rise up and force Japan to surrender) perhaps they were too pessimistic, we will never know because the next convoy got through.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#316

Post by denton-scratch »

worik wrote: post #249
andrewmutz wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are short on land, organic is not a good approach. It takes 40% more land compared to traditional farming.

Depends what you are growing.

How's the organic tea market doing? FWIW, I've never seen organic tea in shops, and I don't know anyone that insists on organic tea.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#317

Post by FooBarWidget »

clarionbell wrote: post #299
FooBarWidget wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the lending country is poor and one does not take the asset itself as collateral, then how does one lend to these countries? Don't lend at all? What should these countries do to acquire critical infrastructure?

You are on the right track. That's one of the reasons China makes inroads across global south, because it's willing to "make a deal". Another reason is that China doesn't want any sort of commitments to international standards, democracy etc. Western governments offer 'help', but it's rarely what local governments want. And often it means publicly complying with rules imposed from the 'outside'. When the 'outside' in…

There are those who believe that conditions such as committing to international standards and democracy, even though well-intended, are actually counter-productive — at least during a country's development phase.

It's indeed an open question how beneficial the relationship will be in the long term. But it's not at all guaranteed that it will end up like Portugal. China was a big naval power during the Ming dynasty, but didn't colonize Africa or South-East Asia. One should be careful with projecting western history onto China.

Some high-profile Chinese figures recognize the problem that BRI projects don't always end up benefitting people. For example, Zhang Chun, researcher at the Center for African Studies at Yunnan University, said this:

"There is a lack of an accurate analysis of Africa's benefits from the Belt and Road Initiative and that needs to be remedied"

Source: 欧亚系统科学研究会 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Vva1N_LVMBwcfpZcSl57rw

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#318

Post by MomoXenosaga »

pjc50 wrote: post #194
kumarvvr wrote: post #15

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

(The original article is very good at providing a beginner's explanation of forex crises, and should be bookmarked for every time someone wants to talk about inflation) > A country ought to feed its people This is much harder than it sounds, not just for dense tiny countries like Singapore but for much of Western Europe. The UK hasn't been able to feed its population from native production only since before WW2. I se…

The Netherlands is still able to import LNG because it is almost satanically rich.

Self sufficiency is advisable for the poorer countries though.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#319

Post by philistine »

dreen wrote: post #284
HPsquared wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the two mutually exclusive? I don't see why a democracy can't elect a dictator, even a different one every couple of years. In ancient Rome the title dictator was a short-term thing.

In Rome there were two periods when the title of Dictator was used. First during the Republic where it indeed was a temporary role with limitations, then resurrected during the Empire as title only to justify authoritarianism.

You’re not right. What Rome called a dictator is not the modern definition of the term. An elected autocrat can have similarities to a dictator, but they aren’t one. Unless they rig the elections!

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#320

Post by philistine »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #161
soldehierro wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe me, the organic transition had nothing to do with agricultural practices and all to do with economics, with the logic being that fertilizer was an expensive import, and by banning fertilizer they could hemorrhage foreign exchange reserves a little less. Of course, they also earned a lot less because the bone-headed transition lead to a marked reduction in yield, only worsening the forex problem the ban of agr…

Very honestly, it might have worked out fine - organic produce fetches a much higher price overseas. If its already a somewhat niche product like tea, organic produce might go even higher and make up for the loss in yield. For Sri Lanka, it was the perfect storm of covid decimating tourism AND overseas demand for their produce. Without Covid, they might have been able to stay afloat on tourism dollars until the organ…

Organic farming is strictly self-regulated. Usually it takes something like five years for a field that was used for traditional farming to be considered organic. The field has to flush the insecticide. With a decision to prevent forex issues by banning fertilizer, Sri Lanka could not afford to wait years for its organic products to be recognized internationally. The plan was foolish.
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