Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes • Hacker News Board

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#291

Post by philliphaydon » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 10:56 AM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #285

philliphaydon wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So because they restructured some they must restructure all despite the fact they refused to restructure Sri Lanka. So Sri Lanka is stuck paying like 5% interest vs japans 0.7%. I know you love the CCP but it’s hilarious how much credit you give them despite not wanting to live in China.

I can also turn this around: what about the non-Chinese lenders who own much more Sri Lanka debt? Do they restructure? Why single out China specifically? Why is it necessary for China to allow restructuring all debt? Would you impose this standard on all other lenders? It is entirely possible to be fed up with anti-China propaganda while not being specifically a CCP supporter. It is also entirely possible for an over…

It’s not anti-China propaganda when 1) it’s not propaganda. And 2) it’s about the CCP not China.

But calling it anti-China is a typical tactic to attempt to discredit people.

China credit is the only one knocking on doors and wanting ports to be built by paying off governments to push things through when the courts are saying it’s not a good deal and it has non favourable clauses with the end result of china getting to control the port they built at the cost of the government.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#292

Post by denton-scratch » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:02 AM UTC

kumarvvr wrote: post #15

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

> A country ought to feed its people, provide basic services like power and medical facilities on its own, without depending on imports.

Ah, wouldn't that be nice!

I live in the UK, a country that hasn't been able to feed itself using only its own produce for centuries; Napoleon called us a "nation of shopkeepers" because we couldn't survive without trade. Our staple is wheat; but our wheat isn't as good as North American wheat, and anyway we are far from self-sufficient.

We used to export coal, oil and gas; but the North Sea has largely dried up, the coal mines are mostly closed, and anyway coal is sort of un-hip these days.

I wish the NHS would stop putting services out to open tender. Private (overseas) medical companies bid for the business, so that more and more of our health services are provided privately, by US medical companies. We're perfectly capable of looking after the health of our population without overseas help; but apparently our politicians don't think it's a good idea.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#293

Post by FooBarWidget » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:05 AM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #291

FooBarWidget wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can also turn this around: what about the non-Chinese lenders who own much more Sri Lanka debt? Do they restructure? Why single out China specifically? Why is it necessary for China to allow restructuring all debt? Would you impose this standard on all other lenders? It is entirely possible to be fed up with anti-China propaganda while not being specifically a CCP supporter. It is also entirely possible for an over…

It’s not anti-China propaganda when 1) it’s not propaganda. And 2) it’s about the CCP not China. But calling it anti-China is a typical tactic to attempt to discredit people. China credit is the only one knocking on doors and wanting ports to be built by paying off governments to push things through when the courts are saying it’s not a good deal and it has non favourable clauses with the end result of china getting…

It's not propaganda except the narrative literally came from Trump, while the US govt has publicly admitted to sponsoring anti-BRI journalism: https://prospect.org/politics/congress-proposes-500-million-...

It's "only about the CCP" except Chinese scientists, Chinese engineers, Chinese students and other ordinary Chinese people are declared "linked to the CCP" without evidence, thereby destroying their lives. "Nearly 90% of the defendants charged with spying are of Chinese heritage. This includes citizens with connections to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and long-standing Chinese diaspora communities in Southeast Asia": https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/02/1040656/china-in...

And even if it's only about CCP, how does that justify not basing accusations on facts? I do not at all oppose you having legitimate grievances against CCP. I do oppose false grievances with no basis in reality, against any party.

You end your post with a claim. Please provide evidence that China forced countries to take loans, as opposed to countries having agency in this matter.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#294

Post by philliphaydon » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:08 AM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #293

philliphaydon wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not anti-China propaganda when 1) it’s not propaganda. And 2) it’s about the CCP not China. But calling it anti-China is a typical tactic to attempt to discredit people. China credit is the only one knocking on doors and wanting ports to be built by paying off governments to push things through when the courts are saying it’s not a good deal and it has non favourable clauses with the end result of china getting…

It's not propaganda except the narrative literally came from Trump, while the US govt has publicly admitted to sponsoring anti-BRI journalism: https://prospect.org/politics/congress-proposes-500-million-... It's "only about the CCP" except Chinese scientists, Chinese engineers, Chinese students and other ordinary Chinese people are declared "linked to the CCP" without evidence, thereby destroying their lives. "Nearly…

Started with Trump lol people have been talking about China Debt Trap since early 2000.

People have been critical of the CCP massively since Xi took power and started causing conflicts with all neighbouring countries with his power push.

Please lol blaming trump lol that’s funny on a whole new level.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#295

Post by batushka3 » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:10 AM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #21

The first part of the article about how Sri Lanka would get foreign currency (swap, export or borrow) almost completely ignores the well documented devastation of the tourist industry, where people bring euros or dollars, due to covid19 and shutdowns of travel. Yes I suppose it falls into the category of swap, because people bring euros and exchange them for local currency to buy local goods and services. But it was…

And terrorists do not forget

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#296

Post by hgomersall » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:13 AM UTC

themitigating wrote: post #11

afterburner wrote: post #7

> But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a…

The US is very lucky as a significant amount of people have been taught that government aid/handouts are wrong, as in generally. I'm even impressed Trump spent a few trillion and still didn't get blasted for it by most people. The only two serious politicians who spoke up about it was Ben Sasse who in a conference call with constituents said "he spends like a drunken sailor" and Ted Cruise who at the end with the las…

You get a recession, like every other time the state has reduced spending below taxation whilst running a trade deficit.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#297

Post by cute_boi » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:14 AM UTC

HPsquared wrote: post #193

sumanthvepa wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sri Lanka is not a dictatorship. They have regular elections. The Rajapakshas might have been authoritarian, even corrupt. But they won the last election in a landslide. Sri Lankans cannot entirely absolve themselves of blame for repeatedly electing a populist regime.

Are the two mutually exclusive? I don't see why a democracy can't elect a dictator, even a different one every couple of years. In ancient Rome the title dictator was a short-term thing.

Doesn't dictator means the one who have total control & power over a country? So, by definition, I think srilanka is not a dictatorship.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#298

Post by raxxorraxor » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:16 AM UTC

kumarvvr wrote: post #15

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

Every common farmer could have told you that you will run into huge problems if you don't use fertilizer on a soil that has been fertilized for years. The soil probably has zero nutritional value for plants and any water will quickly evaporate. It is basically just sand that may or may not be too acidic or too alkaline because of chemical residues. It would take years to prepare the soil. You will also need more land to plant different crops and let it regenerate.

Chemical NPK fertilizer is something terribly effective for that matter. It would be a huge improvement to regulate how much is allowed and farmers need to be compensated for the additional land usage to be able to do sensible crop rotations and allow the soil to actually build up nutrition. Overall this could easily take a decade or two.

Of course the motivation wasn't ecological, fertilizer got more expensive and there was no money to buy it with. Industrial fertilizer is made from natural gas after all... You could probably also use oil...

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#299

Post by clarionbell » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:17 AM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #221

clarionbell wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It used to be, mind you some decades ago, a normal policy for foreign government to keep what they have payed for. Take Panama or Suez canal. That being said, the practice is essentially colonialism and for various reasons it became taboo in the west. Publicly that is. If you are private company there is still a lot of things you can get away with, but you won't get gunboats to show up anymore. Simply put. China is d…

If the lending country is poor and one does not take the asset itself as collateral, then how does one lend to these countries? Don't lend at all? What should these countries do to acquire critical infrastructure?

You are on the right track. That's one of the reasons China makes inroads across global south, because it's willing to "make a deal". Another reason is that China doesn't want any sort of commitments to international standards, democracy etc.

Western governments offer 'help', but it's rarely what local governments want. And often it means publicly complying with rules imposed from the 'outside'. When the 'outside' includes your former colonial overlord and you have turned anti-colonialism into most important aspect of your political identity (for example African Union has no problem with dictators, or genocide, but you better not have capital on different continent) you'd be undermining your regime by accepting it.

In the meantime China offers exactly what you ask for, and doesn't ask about minorities or how long your presidential term is.

For now it's mostly working out for locals, their governments at least. In the long run ... Congo had very beneficial relationship with Portugal during the first century or so, not so much afterwards.[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Kongo#Foundation_of...

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#300

Post by FooBarWidget » Wed, Jul 13, 2022, 11:19 AM UTC

philliphaydon wrote: post #294

FooBarWidget wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not propaganda except the narrative literally came from Trump, while the US govt has publicly admitted to sponsoring anti-BRI journalism: https://prospect.org/politics/congress-proposes-500-million-... It's "only about the CCP" except Chinese scientists, Chinese engineers, Chinese students and other ordinary Chinese people are declared "linked to the CCP" without evidence, thereby destroying their lives. "Nearly…

Started with Trump lol people have been talking about China Debt Trap since early 2000. People have been critical of the CCP massively since Xi took power and started causing conflicts with all neighbouring countries with his power push. Please lol blaming trump lol that’s funny on a whole new level.

I mean it's literally in the Atlantic article:

"The Trump administration pointed to Hambantota to warn of China’s strategic use of debt: In 2018, former Vice President Mike Pence called it “debt-trap diplomacy”—a phrase he used through the last days of the administration—and evidence of China’s military ambitions."

Look, you keep lol'ing, moving the goalpost and making new claims, but how about you actually discuss based on facts and provide evidence? I keep providing counter-evidence but you keep moving the goalpost every time you can't counter those.

Again, I have nothing against legitimate grievances. But keep it factual rather than based on spite.