271–280 of 386 posts
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Are there any neighboring countries which could reasonably assist in establishing a new government?
You mean carry out a coup and/or invade?
This only really works with a UN declaration/international support. Having historically friendly ties makes this a better proposition.
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Not just a dictatorship problem. Look at the halting of nuclear in Germany - a decision made by Angela Merkel after a bottle of wine with her husband according to The Atlantic. I would argue that the current energy crisis was also partly caused by the ESG drive which while laudable in aspiration got ahead of physical practical implementation capacity.
Merkel is pro nuclear, the public sentiment forced her hand after Fukushima though.
I wonder how many people died in Fukushima vs how many Ukrainians were killed by Russian soldiers this year.
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The Hambantota case is described in detail in The Atlantic's articl, which explains why it's not a debt trap. For one, the feasibility study for Hambantota was first made by Canada — the Chinese only came in later, competing with western countries for its construction. Second, see this excerpt: > Our research shows that Chinese banks are willing to restructure the terms of existing loans and have never actually seize…
I'm not sure why you're carrying so much water for China, a huge nation that can fend for itself. China absolutely throws its weight around - just like all the other big nations. It also blindly pursues its own self-interest again like all the other big nations. China also isn't a monolith, with companies and individuals making deals or going after projects abroad. Sometimes on win-win terms, sometimes trying to scre…
What is wrong with doing things not based on altruism? There is nothing wrong with business. Nobody builds bridges and hospital for free.
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Those conditions are negotiable. Countries can say "no" to "using Chinese companies". If countries say "we want local companies" then Chinese negotiators say "okay let's do that". Furthermore, a major reason why Chinese companies did the work was due to a lack of skilled workforce in the country. Some countries chose for a hybrid model, where they ask for Chinese companies to train local workers. Finally, if somethin…
> Countries can say "no" to "using Chinese companies". Except they aren't as the contracts prohibit open bidding. > The Atlantic's article says that Chinese lenders are often willing to restructure the loan. Except when they are not willing, which is most often the case. They restructure when things are seemly fine but if shit hits the fan like in the case of Sri Lanka, they wont discuss it. But the CCP prob jots it…
Regarding being able to negotiate: high-profile African commentators, such as Gyude Moore, have pointed out on multiple occasions that it's perfectly possible to say no to an offer, after which the Chinese offer new terms. You should check out his videos some time.
Sri Lanka is the first of possibly many countries to fall or suffer serious consequences in the next year or two. Inflation, coupled with a rally in the strength of the US Dollar, is going to push many smaller nations into resource shortages and ultimately towards revolution. Even many of the major world currencies are doing poorly. The Euro is tanking(back to parity with the dollar, for now, but it may go lower). Th…
>Industry in Germany and much of the EU about to grind to a halt. It's been striking how little discussion there is of this in /r/europe and /r/germany. (The latter has pinned a megathread for the topic, the classic way of killing discussion.) /r/de is slightly better, if only because of the absence of the constant "I don't know German but want to move to Germany and get a job" posts. I don't mean to say that there's…
I suspect it's because most Germans don't hang out there and those forums are populated mostly by expats.
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There's nothing "conspiratorial" about assuming fundamental principles of human behavior, even baked into neoclassical economics (which you might also subscribe to) and any realist political theory. Not only that but real conspiracies at this level happen almost constantly[1], John Bolton just admitted being involved in some yesterday on CNN[2]. Don't be dismissive and condescending, especially when it's quite possib…
The organic movement that led to a nationwide chemical fertiliser ban is in fact part of a CIA operation to destabilise food-insecure nations.
This is absurd... I grant you that the CIA is in the business of destabilizing nations and use the World bank and IMF to that end, but what possible proof do you have that this is the case? It's clear to see that myopic policy (even I as a former Biodynamic farmer thought this transition was absurd) coupled with nepotism and a currency crisis due to COVID which directly impeded their ability to source fertilizer on the open market as the Russian invasion took place is what created their downfall.
This all seeing boggy-G-man narrative is of CCP levels of hysteria!
It seems weird to me to describe this as a "currency crisis". The post pretty plainly describes an actual crisis: > Production of tea -- Sri Lanka's main cash crop -- fell by 18% in a year. Production of rice -- the main food crop -- fell by even more. The problem isn't the currency.
Sri Lanka's immediate problem is not lack of tea or rice, it's that they're out of money and can't pay for imports of essentials like fuel. In other words, a currency crisis.
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The current spike did not happen by chance or out of the blue. This is the result of worldwide efforts to limit the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis. To the extent that it was possible a lot of the countries followed the US in enacting liberal low cost lending. US of course with the mighty dollar was able to print a far more and pump far more into their economy than other countries. But many other countries follo…
> This is the result of worldwide efforts to limit the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis. > overheating of the market. Citations needed.
This needs citation?
> overheating of the market.
I did say "My theory"
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Believe me, the organic transition had nothing to do with agricultural practices and all to do with economics, with the logic being that fertilizer was an expensive import, and by banning fertilizer they could hemorrhage foreign exchange reserves a little less. Of course, they also earned a lot less because the bone-headed transition lead to a marked reduction in yield, only worsening the forex problem the ban of agr…
Very honestly, it might have worked out fine - organic produce fetches a much higher price overseas. If its already a somewhat niche product like tea, organic produce might go even higher and make up for the loss in yield. For Sri Lanka, it was the perfect storm of covid decimating tourism AND overseas demand for their produce. Without Covid, they might have been able to stay afloat on tourism dollars until the organ…
Beyond that, it's easy to get rid of modern fertilizers, but the tradeoff is significantly lower yield. To make up for the loss of yield, you need more space. Sri Lanka is a small island that is densely populated, so space is at a premium. Yielding less crop for the same money might have worked out if not for the pandemic, except for the fact that they domestically consumed most of their domestic staple goods, exporting the surplus. Now they've resorted to importing.
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Since 2014 more than 6 million people have fled Venezuela, bringing the population from 30 million to just under 25 million. That’s 20% of the population. Imagine 1 out of every 5 people you’ve ever known deciding to literally pick up and physically walk out of the country. That sounds like an absolute collapse of civil society.
Venezuela is a unique situation as it had been marred with tons of issues since the sanctions imposed on Chavez (and perhaps even before), because Ukraine has suffered the same thing when you include both internal and external displacement the numbers are actually a lot higher [0] and closer to 25% of the population, and this is not including the casualties of this barbaric invasion. And yet it still has a functioning State that is trying to move towards EU membership and is still getting loans and fighting in the East, while life sort of just continues in the West.
0: https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/plight-of-the-disp....