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Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

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Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#111

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

Singapore is doing well right, so not sure if lack self sufficiency is sure shot failure.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#112

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

This is a common feature of dictatorships: a boneheaded decision from a central government wreaks havoc on the people in the field that would know better. It reminds me of Mao ordering all sparrows be killed because they eat agriculture seeds. This of course caused a much bigger crisis with insects destroying crops - because everyone knows sparrows also eat lots of insects.

Sri Lanka is not a dictatorship. They have regular elections. The Rajapakshas might have been authoritarian, even corrupt. But they won the last election in a landslide. Sri Lankans cannot entirely absolve themselves of blame for repeatedly electing a populist regime.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#114

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

I've been reading a lot of Soviet history lately and it provides a source of a huge number of similar agricultural disasters. Both Russian and Chinese attitudes towards agricultural peasants has been that they are dispensable humans, and it shows in how these countries have had disasters: * collectivitzation leading to the Holodomor in Ukraine, mass famine in Kazakhstan, and hunger throughout the USSR, killing millio…

>Lately I've been completely enamored with the book How Asia Works

Thanks for the recommendation.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A smarter person would have understood that there is a return on investment for fertilizer.

Doesn’t matter if you don’t have cash.

That means you go broke or into debt more slowly

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#116
post #55

Perhaps a dumb question: why does every little country need its own currency? Are they all just addicted to printing money? Ignoring the volatility and environmental concerns, why shouldn’t all these small to medium-sized countries standardize on a cryptocurrency?

Sri Lanka doesn’t have a currency problem. There population doubled since 1960 and they never industrialized.

They simply don’t make anything to sell that has value other than tourism and natural resources.

Trade imbalance has been an issue for decades and they simply hid the problem by taking out loans.

They have simply run out of credit.

My two cents

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#117
post #55

Perhaps a dumb question: why does every little country need its own currency? Are they all just addicted to printing money? Ignoring the volatility and environmental concerns, why shouldn’t all these small to medium-sized countries standardize on a cryptocurrency?

Sri Lanka doesn’t have a currency problem. There population doubled since 1960 and they never industrialized. They simply don’t make anything to sell that has value other than tourism and natural resources. Trade imbalance has been an issue for decades and they simply hid the problem by taking out loans. They have simply run out of credit. My two cents

But it's not just that. With a free economy the problem would sort-of have solved itself, as there are a lot of poorer countries that don't have currency crises.

To get as screwed up as this you can only achieve with centralized planning, where a single decisionmaker mistake can mess up the sustenance of millions.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#118
The paragraph starting with the sentence "So why is an exchange rate peg a mistake? It’s not necessarily a bad thing — it can help create financial stability. But if you peg your exchange rate at a too-high level, you’re setting your country up for disaster," is a good explainer for the cryptocurrency crisis too, especially those coins that pegged them selves against the dollar.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been reading a lot of Soviet history lately and it provides a source of a huge number of similar agricultural disasters. Both Russian and Chinese attitudes towards agricultural peasants has been that they are dispensable humans, and it shows in how these countries have had disasters: * collectivitzation leading to the Holodomor in Ukraine, mass famine in Kazakhstan, and hunger throughout the USSR, killing millio…

Lysenkoism should be taught in schools as an example of how extremely dangerous pseudo science can be.

No post body was provided.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#120

> Without imports, many Sri Lankans will quickly find themselves hungry, stranded How did these island nations sustain themselves before ? In other words, what has changed that they can’t live off the land anymore? And by that, I mean the sea. Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged? Is it being exported to wealthier nations that command higher prices, even as there is a domestic food crisis? How much of this is because o…

> In other words, what has changed

It's often a series of mis-steps that lead to catastrophic failures such as being suffered by Srilanka. Here are a few that come to my mind, in no particular order.

  1. Tourism took a big hit due to COVID lockdowns.

  2. They took on huge debt from China to fund their massive infrastructure developments with close to zero plan as to how to reap the benefit of that infrastructure. For instance this airport[1]

  3. The knee jerk banning of fertiliser.

  4. Corrupt and authoritarian (despite being democratically elected) government favouring their cronies.

News articles trying to analyse look for a recent bad policy choice such as fertiliser ban but one could see that even 5 years ago that Srilankan economy was being badly managed. The ingredients of catastrophe were there and COVID acted as the catalyst.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/05/28/the-stor...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/sri-lanka-rows-b...

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