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Russian gas flows to Europe

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Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#161

Post by jhgb »

Arnt wrote: post #157
jhgb wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Germany's shutting those down because of the Fukushima disaster. No, they're not. The shutdown decision was made (and put into binding law!) almost ten years before Fukushima.

That law wasn't the last word… it didn't prevent extending the allowed lifetimes of the already-built reactors a year or so before Fukushima.

If twenty years ago it was decided in law that X would shut down about now, and X is shutting down now, then I don't see a reason to not say that the decision to shut down X now comes from a law twenty years ago.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#162

Post by ajsnigrutin »

redeeman wrote: post #159
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I find most sad is, how differently we treat eg. USA when they decide to destroy a sovereign country due to their interests, compared to eg. now russia... I'm from slovenia, and we even sent soldiers to help them in afghanistan, and we still have them in syria... somehow noone mentions words like "war", "occupation", "civilian deaths" etc., when our soldiers are there...

and why is it that we continue to do immense trade with china, given their treatment of various people? their extreme pollution(the green agenda is supposedly holier than the pope), why is it that we happily buy a gazillion trinkets from king pooh but putin is simply unacceptable in ALL ways. china is arguably far worse.

China also gets a lot of cheap russian gas now, so apart from american politicians, they're on the "winning side" of this conflict.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#163

Post by redeeman »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #105
rasz wrote: post #58

"Tomorrow Russia will take Nord Stream 1 offline" https://twitter.com/PascalLTH/status/1546174453331230721 and might keep it offline until Germany bends the knee.

"bends the knee" might be buying gas at 1/10th the price and considering it a huge win for the terrorist state called russia

and where is this magical supplier of gas that will sell at 1/10 market price? (asking for a friend!)

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#164

Post by vfclists »

martythemaniak wrote: post #150
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war ( https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=... ). I'm glad you're alive and there's obviously no need to settle that bet, but despite everything you've been through, your understanding of the situation has not improved. First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were wide…

Ukraine cannot win this war unless it turns into a war between Russia and NATO, not Russia and Ukraine, with NATO troops and weapons entering the war on Ukraine's side.

This war will continue unless the Ukrainian govt decides to sue for peace and enter negotiations with Russia. This war is really about Russia telling the US and NATO to go F themselves. Putin is done with those "b**ches."

The purpose of prolonging this war through military support is to draw Ukraine into the remit of the West as they will be indebted in one way or another to the West if they "win" this war. That part is already done. The question is whether a defeat of Russia will allow that to be realized.

Ukraine's best bet now is to get rid of the Zelensky regime and replace it with one ready to enter into negotiations. If the West will not enter the war directly then the war is lost as far is Ukraine is concerned.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#165

Post by vfclists »

rasz wrote: post #156
vfclists wrote: post #151

Quoted post unavailable.

Thank you, Now I get it. Its the US bullying that was the cause for Ukraine invasion! This and Germany.

Look up the term realpolitik.

The US invaded Grenada and Panama when the regimes there threatened her interests and changed them. Why do you think that is a privilege reserved only for the US?

If you don't want to accept that sanctions imposed on Russia prior to this ware are a form of warfare you can't be helped. That is the thrust of my argument.

Putin understands very well, and simply said F those b*ches I am going in hard!!

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#166

Post by MrRiddle »

hash872 wrote: post #114
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

1. 'The West' wasn't hubristic, Europe was. The US has been telling Europe to get off of Russian gas & oil for decades, under multiple administrations. Both parties have been extremely clear about this for over two decades now. 'I'm astounded at how many people continue to live in the 3rd fantasy of believing Ukraine could somehow "defeat" Russia while still avoiding WW3' 2. The US lost in Vietnam without using nukes…

You should compare Ukraine to Cuba, not Vietnam. You know, when US almost nuked Cuba and USSR just because Cuba is too close for comfort? Sort of like Ukraine is for Russia?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#167

Post by londons_explore »

rasz wrote: post #142
londons_explore wrote: post #135

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee. If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: * Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas. * cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' w…

>If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: There is no IF, NS1 is being turned off tomorrow. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/80867/ "Nord Stream AG to shut down both strings of Nord Stream gas pipeline on July 11-21 for scheduled repairs" Most likely scenario at this point is "prolonged servicing" and no gas flow after 21.

There are plenty of other gas pipelines into europe.

Gas is traded internally all round europe, so 'cutting off' one country doesn't have much impact because they just buy from another.

It's the continent-wide energy shortfall that will be the issue, but as OP points out, there are plenty of ways to steeply cut energy use while keeping some semblance of regular life.

There are also lots of shuttered coal mines all round europe, many of which could be reopened if necessary, and coal to gas is an option - not done since the 1980's since it cost more, but it might well be back on the cards.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#168

Post by konschubert »

severino wrote: post #61
worik wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many invading your neighbours?

Well, I disapprove the raping and killing of entire families no matter if they're my neighbors or they live a couple of countries away. Don't you?

There is only one country who’s trying to erase another from the map of Europe right now, and it’s Russia.

It’s important to understand that Russia is a much bigger threat to European safety than the Saudis.

When it comes to defending central european borders, your whataboutism isn’t helpful.

You may call this cynical. But I think that this whataboutism that leads to inaction is the most cynical of all.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#169

Post by karpierz »

_xnmw wrote: post #144
karpierz wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2. we believed our leaders would have the sense to settle with Russia instead of destroying our country. What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine? Russia is demanding that Ukraine allow part of its territory to secede and form "independent" nations, as well as have Ukraine avoid bolstering its ability to protect itself from its neighbours. Do you think those countries won't…

> What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine? Any settlement would've been better than this. Every major city destroyed, 15% of the population emigrated.

Again, what settlement would Russia accept and leave Ukraine safe from further Russian invasion?

Because the only one on the table simply has Ukraine remove its ability to defend itself, and create a Russian client state that Russia will continue to use to wage proxy war on Ukraine until they're entirely within Russia's control.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#170

Post by heavenlyblue »

ithkuil wrote: post #71
shmerl wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see a lot of differences really in regards to the question of doing business with such regimes which equals to aiding their war.

perhaps the worry is that if Europe collapses, we may discover some of the members actually align with Putin? That's the nature of democracy, all it takes is a candidate (which we usually label as "populist") to leverage the resentment of the hardship endured because of being anti-putin.

In Eastern European countries this resentment almost surely already exists through some sort of “Russia’s Phoenix resurrected from the ashes”
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