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Russian gas flows to Europe

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Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#141

Post by jhgb »

Arnt wrote: post #89
clemensley wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no dispute about the safety of nuclear. We have statistics going back decades. https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy#:~:text=... .

Germany's shutting those down because of the Fukushima disaster. A lot of Germans believe (rightly or wrongly) that Japanese are as quality-conscious and dependable as they themselves. Corollary: if the Japanese can fuck up in the ways that led to Fukushima, then the German operators can fuck up in similar ways. Now, these people may be wrong. But they made the decision. Until Fukushima, there was a net pro-nuclear v…

> Germany's shutting those down because of the Fukushima disaster.

No, they're not. The shutdown decision was made (and put into binding law!) almost ten years before Fukushima.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#142

Post by rasz »

londons_explore wrote: post #135

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee. If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: * Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas. * cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' w…

>If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would:

There is no IF, NS1 is being turned off tomorrow. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/80867/

"Nord Stream AG to shut down both strings of Nord Stream gas pipeline on July 11-21 for scheduled repairs"

Most likely scenario at this point is "prolonged servicing" and no gas flow after 21.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#143

Post by _xnmw »

poisonborz wrote: post #126
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

> Ukraine could somehow "defeat" Russia while still avoiding WW3 Why? These kind of cold-war era proxy wars happened throughout history. One big power makes a move directly or indirectly, while the other side will be supported indirectly by other powers. It becomes a pure resource war, and no party has a reason to escalate it beyond the conflict zone. Russia has no reason to open new fronts even if NATO props the war…

This is not a proxy war. Russia is involved directly on its border. A proxy war is in a far off land.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#144

Post by _xnmw »

karpierz wrote: post #112
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

> 2. we believed our leaders would have the sense to settle with Russia instead of destroying our country. What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine? Russia is demanding that Ukraine allow part of its territory to secede and form "independent" nations, as well as have Ukraine avoid bolstering its ability to protect itself from its neighbours. Do you think those countries won't…

> What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine?

Any settlement would've been better than this. Every major city destroyed, 15% of the population emigrated.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#145

Post by jhgb »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #140
jhgb wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won't heat homes using electricity more efficiently than with direct heaters without significantly redesigning them, so all this would do would be using even more primary energy than before. This is going to happen over time as nZEBs according to the 2010 and 2012 EU directives are going to replace old buildings in the building stock, but you can't make that happen overnight. Also, since the origin of the electri…

We're literally going into an era, where politicians are advising their citizens to "wear a warmer sweater" at home, in one of the strongest economies in the world. Every killowatt of energy helps, and if you're able to switch a percent or two of your people to use electricity for heat, that can save a lot of gas for areas, where there are no alternatives. Yes, long term we can talk about many alternatives, but it's…

It turned out that "strongest economies in the world" are like that by literally destroying the world's ecosystems. If you have any idea how "wear a warmer sweater" is a bad suggestion until we make it so that the destroying of the world's ecosystems is not necessary, out with it. Energy-efficiency-wise, wearing appropriate clothing is one of the best ideas.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#147

Post by hintymad »

Honest question: Isn't it true that we should have peace through strength? If so, I don't see how it's a good strategy to have heavy dependency on Russian oil and gas while shutting down a country's own nuclear plants and other energy initiatives and go all in green. Or maybe the strategy is if Russian depletes its natural resources, we will win eventually?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#148

Post by sschueller »

rasz wrote: post #142
londons_explore wrote: post #135

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee. If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: * Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas. * cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' w…

>If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: There is no IF, NS1 is being turned off tomorrow. https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/80867/ "Nord Stream AG to shut down both strings of Nord Stream gas pipeline on July 11-21 for scheduled repairs" Most likely scenario at this point is "prolonged servicing" and no gas flow after 21.

This maintenance is done every year so I don't see why they would shut it off permanently.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#149

Post by throwrqX »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #128
hourago wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> somehow noone mentions words like "war", "occupation", "civilian deaths" etc., when our soldiers are there... Read more newspapers. You can choose: https://www.google.com/search?q=civilians%20dead%20in%20afgh...

This is google, so results might vary, but this is the first result for me: https://reliefweb.int/report/afghanistan/civilian-casualties... "Civilian casualties of explosive violence mount as Taliban capture Kabul" Somehow wikipedia is only the second link, mentioning the actual numbers of civilians.... but again... when was the last time news like this made headlines? When was the last time anyone imposed sanctions…

If you count New York Times as mainstream then plenty of times. For example

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/10/16/pentagon-pay...

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/world/middleeast/11casual...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/16/magazine/unco...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/18/us/airstrikes...

Although I agree there was no real punishment, after all the US isn't going to charge their own soldiers unless they can find hard evidence it was done on purpose because it would disincentivise them from doing their work, at best they could hope for some payment from the US, that did happen on the odd occasion, no where nearly as much I doubt as they would have received if they killed someone domestically like that though.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#150

Post by martythemaniak »

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war (https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=...). I'm glad you're alive and there's obviously no need to settle that bet, but despite everything you've been through, your understanding of the situation has not improved.

First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were widely mocked for it... for a week.

Second, there is no "settling". Ukraine could either be a puppet state with all its leaders, laws and policies decided and picked by Moscow, or it can be a normal country. This was never about Russia getting the Donbas and Crimea and you could not have assuaged Putin by giving him this. Sadly this will take a while, but Russia will lose this war the way they lost Afghanistan, Poland, Japan and countless other wars.

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