Russian gas flows to Europe • Hacker News Board

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#111

Post by _ph_ » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:32 PM UTC

clemensley wrote: post #100

Arnt wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany's shutting those down because of the Fukushima disaster. A lot of Germans believe (rightly or wrongly) that Japanese are as quality-conscious and dependable as they themselves. Corollary: if the Japanese can fuck up in the ways that led to Fukushima, then the German operators can fuck up in similar ways. Now, these people may be wrong. But they made the decision. Until Fukushima, there was a net pro-nuclear v…

Did you know that most likely nobody died from radiation after Fukushima? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disa...

Well, people were evacuated in time. The big question is: can they come back, like ever? The threat isn't so much people dying from radiation if evacuated in time, it is that large regions of densely populated central Europe can become uninhabitable and not usable for agriculture.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#112

Post by karpierz » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:32 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

> 2. we believed our leaders would have the sense to settle with Russia instead of destroying our country.

What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine? Russia is demanding that Ukraine allow part of its territory to secede and form "independent" nations, as well as have Ukraine avoid bolstering its ability to protect itself from its neighbours. Do you think those countries won't try to take more territory from Ukraine, with Russian backing? Do you think Russia will really stop invading Ukraine, after having already done it twice?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#113

Post by frosted-flakes » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:32 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #99

qbasic_forever wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Freezing to death this winter because your source of fuel oil is now your geopolitical enemy seems like a more pressing problem than the tiny amount of waste 3 plants will generate decades from now.

To prevent "freezing to death" would require heating, not electricity, which Germany has enough. It is the house heating that is powered by gas. And no one is going to freeze to death, the question is only the impact onto industry.

Electric heat is always an option. If the gas runs out, portable electric heaters could be used, if the electric grid can keep up.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#114

Post by hash872 » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:32 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

1. 'The West' wasn't hubristic, Europe was. The US has been telling Europe to get off of Russian gas & oil for decades, under multiple administrations. Both parties have been extremely clear about this for over two decades now.

'I'm astounded at how many people continue to live in the 3rd fantasy of believing Ukraine could somehow "defeat" Russia while still avoiding WW3'

2. The US lost in Vietnam without using nukes. Even more relevant, the USSR lost in Afghanistan without using them! I believe Pakistan has lost 3 straight wars to its arch-enemy, with no nuclear weapons being used.

If we follow your logic to its conclusion, Russia can annex Poland, Lithuania, Germany, France, and so on, and at every step of the way we'd say 'well we can't defeat Russia or else they'll use nukes'. They'd be able to conquer.... everything this way. This seems bad? Would you like to live in this world?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#115

Post by hourago » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

Europe did not believe to be omnipotent but they just though that Russia could be trusted. Putin has thrown away a great deal looking for personal glory at the cost of Russia's future.

Did you believed that Russia was going to get Ukrainian territory easily, Putin thought that also.

> What is your end game?

Too avoid repeating the same mistake that with Hitler. Give Putin more territory and he will need hungry for even more. This may end the war now instead of encouraging further fights.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#116

Post by ajsnigrutin » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

jhgb wrote: post #108

clemensley wrote: post #22

Two days ago the German government voted to to shut off the three remaining nuclear power plants. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/klima-nachhaltigkeit/...

And? What is the relevance of that? Not shutting them off wouldn't in any way influence the industrial and heating heating usages of natural gas in Germany which are the main problem.

Yes, you can heat homes using electricity, thus saving gas for things, where you cannot use electricity.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#117

Post by marvinvz » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

severino wrote: post #69

cersa8 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it deeply concerning we are still very much in bed with Putin. We should have taken drastic steps early and maybe be half way in tapping alternative sources. The fact Germany is happily closing nuclear power plants shows Europe is in for a rude awakening when Putin tightens the vice.

And who do we buy oil/gas from? Venezuela? Iran? Saudi Arabia? United States? I don't see a reason why those countries are better than Russia.

Because none of those plan on taking over europe. Russia still has the goal to directly control all slavic countries and indirectly control the rest of Europe. Most europeans remember the USSR.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#118

Post by littlestymaar » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

userbinator wrote: post #72

slenk wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think there is any world where getting rid of nuclear power is better...it's one of the cleanest, least deadly forms of power generation.

The biggest concern is that when things go wrong with nuclear, they really go wrong.

It “really goes wrong” only because we've set a really high bar for safety when talking about nuclear risks compared to most other carcinogenic risks: air pollution, pesticides, alcohol, tobacco, etc. If people where living in Prypiat right now, most of their cancer would come from other sources.

Because of the cultural stigma associated with radiations (which itself comes from the very real fear of a world-ending nuclear war during the early cold war) most smokers would refused to live around a nuclear accident site, even though it's quickly (after the most radioactive elements, namely iodine, has decayed away) much less dangerous than the cigarette they knowingly smoke all day.

Fun fact: did you know that in Germany alone the area of what has been destroyed by coal mining is comparable in size to the exclusion zone of Fukushima. This is when things go alright with coal: https://nitter.42l.fr/autommen/status/1538496930262704128#m

viewed from space: https://nitter.42l.fr/KetanJ0/status/1383023566766096386#m

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#119

Post by hourago » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:34 PM UTC

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #109

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

What I find most sad is, how differently we treat eg. USA when they decide to destroy a sovereign country due to their interests, compared to eg. now russia... I'm from slovenia, and we even sent soldiers to help them in afghanistan, and we still have them in syria... somehow noone mentions words like "war", "occupation", "civilian deaths" etc., when our soldiers are there...

> somehow noone mentions words like "war", "occupation", "civilian deaths" etc., when our soldiers are there...

Read more newspapers. You can choose: https://www.google.com/search?q=civilians%20dead%20in%20afgh...

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#120

Post by kingofpandora » Sun, Jul 10, 2022, 9:35 PM UTC

qbasic_forever wrote: post #60

jacquesm wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you can imagine isn't all that relevant though, once the decision to mothball an installation of this size is made it isn't as though you decide to run your car for another year. This is a massive infrastructure project, with all kind of regulatory hoops they need to jump through to operate safely, including training of employees, gear certification and so on. Starting things back up again could well be a multi-…

Germany's GDP is 4 trillion dollars, its government budget is over 400 billion. Refurbing 3 nuke plants is nothing with those resources. The entire manhattan project that pioneered nuclear power only cost about 50 billion in today's money, but they aren't even starting from scratch like that. If they wanted it to happen I can't see any financial or technical blocker.

Why do you assume you know better than experts?