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Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

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Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#51

Post by opportune »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #21
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

Ah, yes, fixed rail. Great for locking assumptions about population and labor distribution over the next 50-100 years into multi-billion dollar financial commitments that have to be made today. And unmatched when it comes to moving people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.

This also describes a road

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#52

Post by salmonfamine »

aetherson wrote: post #39
salmonfamine wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok.

Let me put it a different way for you: All of this conditional on self-driving cars really being actually solved, such that an autonomous car is, say, better than the 75% driver on the road. I expect the overwhelming majority of long-haul (say, >200 miles) passenger transport to happen via planes and trains, just like today. I do not expect that commute times will be substantially shorter -- indeed, I wouldn't be sur…

Mostly just this:

> I DO expect that short-haul public transportation would suffer a significant decline in ridership, as it would be outcompeted by driverless cars.

My contention here is “outcompeted.” Ultimately, this is a policy decision —- at least in the United States. In regions where there is both existing rail and highways, there might be good conditions for a competitive market to exist between the two. But, that competition will also rely on energy pricing and EV availability, as well as policy decisions. As you mentioned, density is a huge factor. However, there’s not sufficient evidence that self-driving cars can solve the congestion that comes with low-density.

In short, there’s far too many factors to make a big prediction about the fate of either at large.

In general, my contention is with those who tout self-driving as a transformative technology that will turn our congested highways into high-speed infra, and all with a higher degree of safety than existing cars. We don’t know any of that.

We do know that short-haul public transportation can work very well.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#53

Post by simne »

DoneWithAllThat wrote: post #9
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

Explain how trains solve the last mile problem? The thing that roads already solve?

It is possible, and it could be extremely effective, but not straight way.

1. exists concept of linear city, and exists few implementations, most known:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volgograd

2. In linear city, possible to create just one line of train, and station every mile, and all other transport muscular, or something like pneumatic-mail and open conveyors.

In some cases, could be effective to make rectangular network of train lines.

Sure, for old cities with lot of legacy, only train transport in many cases impractical, because usually their logistic network is not linear and even not rectangular. And train largest problem, is large radius of turn.

Currently in most large cities exists underground train or light city train, in different countries named tube, metro, underground.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#54

Post by wffurr »

mrshadowgoose wrote: post #43
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

Build trains...on every single road in existence? Neither my house or workplace is adequately serviced by public transport, and even if they both were, I wouldn't use it unless legally or financially forced to. I enjoy proceeding directly from point A to B in the comfort of a private space, and so do very many other people. The waste of personally-owned automobiles is admittedly abhorrent. Electrification and self-dr…

>> Build trains...on every single road in existence?

Yes. That's effectively what cities had at the turn of the last century. And then they ripped up all the tracks or paved them over.

They recently did a full depth reconstruction on a street in my neighborhood in Somerville, Massachusetts which entailed digging up the old streetcar rails, ties, and brick substrate from under the pavement.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#55

Post by simne »

DoneWithAllThat wrote: post #9
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

Explain how trains solve the last mile problem? The thing that roads already solve?

BTW in western Europe railway network is very dense, and in some countries train is more popular than taxi.

But I think this is mostly because there high density of population, so they long time ago faced problem of transport large number of people, before appear large city buses.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#56

Post by CamperBob2 »

opportune wrote: post #51
CamperBob2 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, yes, fixed rail. Great for locking assumptions about population and labor distribution over the next 50-100 years into multi-billion dollar financial commitments that have to be made today. And unmatched when it comes to moving people from one place where they don't want to be to another place where they don't want to be.

This also describes a road

No, it doesn't, in either the financial or the last-mile senses.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#57

Post by alistairSH »

Why are these robo-taxis dependent on some sort of OTA communication to operate? I understand periodic OTA updates, but shouldn’t they be able to operate autonomously for long enough to avoid jamming up traffic? Maybe long enough to find a legal parking place instead of the middle of a turn lane/crosswalk?

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#58

Post by SECProto »

eric-hu wrote: post #19
SECProto wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so we build giant parking lots at our metro train stations No. The comment you're replying to specifically said "walk", while the comment at top of thread specifically mentioned that building trains "requires a move towards high-density housing". High density housing, trains, and walking is a solved transportation solution for cities with much higher/denser populations than we have in North America. Getting there f…

What cities or countries did this successfully? Were they as dependent on cars as American cities tend to be?

> What cities or countries did this successfully?

As I said, "the general process many places are working on". Look up cities in Can/US/Aus currently building light rail systems and you'll see who is working on it (with greater or lesser degrees of commitment, which will have corresponding outcomes in a decade or so).

North American cities successfully built themselves to be car dependent when no one else ever had, now they just need to work in reverse. The problems aren't functionally different whether it's cars jammed in stop-and-go on an interstate, trains overcrowded on a regional rail, horse and carriages clogging a bridge in medieval england (eg like discussed in the historical fiction World Without End), or individual people jamming the gates at Mecca or a large concert entrance/exit.

The root problem is vehicle lanes can only accomodate a few thousands of vehicles per hour at most (1800 at 2s following distance), while trains can easily accomodate tens of thousands of passengers in the same right of way. Even a sidewalk can (but generally don't) accomodate more users than single occupant vehicles on a highway lane.

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#59

Post by oneoff786 »

onionisafruit wrote: post #50
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

I’m not sure what real problem self driving cars are supposed to solve aside from some people aren’t able to drive. Some might say that self driving cars would be safer than human driven cars, but that fails to account for the fact that any safety improvements from self driving cars can be built into active safety features in regular cars.

I don’t want to drive but I still want to go somewhere

Re: Cruise’s Robot Car Outages Are Jamming Up San Francisco

#60

Post by whimsicalism »

onionisafruit wrote: post #50
salmonfamine wrote: post #8

Self-driving cars are a solution for a problem that has already been solved. Build trains. But of course, this doesn't benefit automakers, requires a move towards high-density housing that NIMBY's and certain classes of investors oppose, so instead we'll create an entirely new class of problems by allowing these companies to unleash their insufficient technology on public roads.

I’m not sure what real problem self driving cars are supposed to solve aside from some people aren’t able to drive. Some might say that self driving cars would be safer than human driven cars, but that fails to account for the fact that any safety improvements from self driving cars can be built into active safety features in regular cars.

> I’m not sure what real problem self driving cars are supposed to solve aside from some people aren’t able to drive

there could presumably be large improvements in the ratio of cars to people.

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