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Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

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Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#161
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear you, but the real argument against nuclear fission is not the economic one, it's the safety one. The safety during the (peace time) use of nuclear plants has been hugely improved, so I agree that's not anymore the main concern. But nuclear fission facilities are very cumbersome to dismantle, and they are liabilities during and after their commissioning. You can see that in Ukraine for example, Zaporizhia plant…

This is an important point. Nuclear can be very safe in theory . Under the right circumstances, all risks can be accounted for (except long term waste storage, apparently). Problem is, in the hands of profit-seeking companies and aggressive and/or corrupt governments, those circumstances will not be right. Remember that both Fukushima and Deep Water Horizon were caused by companies cutting costs in the face of warnin…

Why can't the waste just be ejected into space. SpaceX has made launches a lot cheaper than it once was and once you push it into the solar system it'll never cause problems again.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#162
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Essentially pausing the whole green energy effort for the next 8 years (at least)" [citation needed] It is green energy as long as the criteria are met. Even solar could be not considered green, depending on where you set the emission bar. There is no black and white. There is a long transition process, with timelines, budgets and targets. Rules on gas are very strict. The regulation is an improvement. Some countrie…

> It is green energy as long as the criteria are met. That's what the EU Parliament are saying; but the truth is that the criteria are met if the criteria are met. Energy doesn't become "green" just because some bunch of lobbied and whipped politicians say it's green.

It is a definition, which is needed when you need to make plans and decisions, as in any other case. It does not mean that reality changes because of an agreement, of course, even if mixing the two might be tempting when trying to discredit politicians as a whole. That is an evergreen :)

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#163
post #31

De-nuclearization of other European countries is a long-held goal of the German environmentalist movement and the Green party. It's understandable that France doesn't want to go with that, as they don't want to be forced down the same ruinous path we're currently on here in Germany. And honestly, good for them. It's just sad to see how little actual science is respected in Germany. I did my PhD at the French nuclear…

There are also many institutes (e.g IDW) constantly pumping out papers that conclude nuclear energy has highest costs, highest danger, will leave unsolvable toxic waste problems, renewable energy is extremely cheap, building enough storage is no problem etc. These people are constantly invited to present these „Zukunftsenergien“ as opposed to the old bad nuclear in talk shows. And yet Germany, after two decades and c…

> The same talk show people now talk about how we have a heat and not a power problem, so we don‘t need the nuclear power.

Which is even more ridiculos because heat is the primary product of nuclear reactors. Their thermal rating of a nuclear reactor is about 3x the electrical rating.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#164

As I heard today again on the radio, the narrative is "to get energy whatever the weather, we cannot rely only on wind and solar". I'm surprised that they haven't heard of the possibility of energy storage . Both already available storage solutions, and the many other solutions in development, are largely enough to enable wind/solar and other renewable sources to replace fossil fuels, without relying on nuclear.

> I'm surprised that they haven't heard of the possibility of energy storage.

They have probably heard of it, most probably they also know that it isn't scalable. It might be scalable, in I don't know how many years, but the here and now (and especially the coming winters) is closer to the EU electorate than some possible technological breakthrough that might or might not happen.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#165

As I heard today again on the radio, the narrative is "to get energy whatever the weather, we cannot rely only on wind and solar". I'm surprised that they haven't heard of the possibility of energy storage . Both already available storage solutions, and the many other solutions in development, are largely enough to enable wind/solar and other renewable sources to replace fossil fuels, without relying on nuclear.

> I'm surprised that they haven't heard of the possibility of energy storage. They have probably heard of it, most probably they also know that it isn't scalable. It might be scalable, in I don't know how many years, but the here and now (and especially the coming winters) is closer to the EU electorate than some possible technological breakthrough that might or might not happen.

Why wouldn't it be scalable? Most of the solutions I know of are scalable (those that do not require rare minerals).

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#166
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US operators pay into a fund for decommissioning. >No nuclear power plant has ever been fully decommissioned. There have been 10 plants in the US that have been fully decommissioned[1]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33792

"fully decommissioned" by some somewhat unintuitive definitions: > The DOE was required by contract and statute to begin removing spent nuclear fuel and GTCC waste by January 31, 1998. To date, the DOE has not removed any spent fuel or GTCC waste from the CY site, and it is unknown when it will. The current 'plan' is for the companies looking after the waste on the original site to sue the government every few years…

The casks are safe where they are and should hold safely for at least 90 years according tot he notoriously conservative NRC. They should be moved, and congress needs to get its shit together, I agree.

We really need to get deep storage unstuck from the Yucca Mountain issue, but I think this still counts as decommissioned.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.science.org/content/article/natural-gas-could-wa... That's a myth based on old data, no one who understands the models makes such simplified black and white claims. Methane (which is natural gas) is a much worse greenhouse gas than CO2. As in up to 100x the warming potential in the first couple of years until it's naturally converted. When burned, it's turned into CO2 but the problem is there is leakage a…

I think the propagandistic title is just an expression of the Parliament's meaning; they've declared that nuclear and gas are to be treated as "green" for the purposes of various exemptions. You can legislate that Pi is equal to three, but that doesn't make it so. As parent notes, every molecule of methane burned turns into a molecule of CO2. Incidentally: I don't see how burning coal produces more CO2 than burning m…

It's because of how it burns. It is true that you get more energy out producing the same amount of CO2 with gas compared to burning coal. This might sound counterintuitive but it has been studied and isn't controversial. Although I doubt that "one third" claim the other person made, but in principle that part of their argument is correct.

The issue is, all extracted methane isn't burned, and that's where the trouble starts. Over the past years, we've seen estimates for how much of it is lost into the atmosphere grow and grow. Some recent studies already claim more than 3%: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/methane-leaks-era...

There has recently even been speculation that gas from certain sources where monitoring and environmental regulations aren't very strong could actually be worse than black coal. The truth is we don't really know this for sure yet.

You're right about the pollution, this and some other considerations are important as well. In certain countries air pollution is a serious issue. Germany doesn't really have this problem and the German plants have good filters. Germany has it's own coal, gas has to be imported. They're experiencing the effects of a dependency on foreign gas as we speak. So in the end, they might have actually better kept their coal power. I doubt it's going to happen though, coal is dead for purely political reasons. It's simply extremely unpopular.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm surprised that they haven't heard of the possibility of energy storage. They have probably heard of it, most probably they also know that it isn't scalable. It might be scalable, in I don't know how many years, but the here and now (and especially the coming winters) is closer to the EU electorate than some possible technological breakthrough that might or might not happen.

Why wouldn't it be scalable? Most of the solutions I know of are scalable (those that do not require rare minerals).

What solutions do you know? The hydro ones are not scalable, that's for sure. One, you'd never, ever get the environmental permits to build the dams behind them, and two, you can only build them in mountainous, maybe hilly terrain, that would add tons of costs related to distribution.

I had also read something about using salt deposits, but maybe I'm remembering wrong.

And no, Tesla-like batteries, or any batteries for the matter, are not a solution at the scales we're talking about.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#169
Some back-of-the-grubby-napkin maths.

Nuclear is currently about 10% of global electricity production. We could go all-nuclear, therefore, by going 10x on nuclear reactors (less in fact because there are renewables too but nvm).

There have been two major, critical nuclear energy incidents - Chernobyl and Fukushima. I'll count them both, though see caveat [1]. That's 2 incidents in 50 years. If we went all-nuclear and extrapolated, that'd be 20 incidents per 50 years, or 40 per century. UN estimates 4,000 deaths from Chernobyl (contentious but I'll stick with it). Wikipedia quotes Fukushima as 2,000 deaths - well, 2,002 deaths caused by evacuations and 1 in the incident. Let's not mince around and make it 4,000 per pop.

40 incidents per century at 4,000 deaths per event, that's a total of 160,000 deaths per _century_. In return, we're basically carbon-neutral and don't need storage. How many people die if we're not carbon-neutral? Millions for a start. It seems like a no-brainer to me. Also subtract all the deaths from not-generating power using these now-replaced means, improvements to air quality from not burning stuff, and I think humanity is in a much, much happier place.

I'm not saying nuclear is without downsides, I'm saying if you take all the downsides on the chin, nuclearise through the nose, you're better off than the alternative of burning stuff. Solar and wind are great but plenty of regions would require months worth of storage, which we're nowhere near to technologically.

So, now some nuance:

[1] Chernobyl, as I understand it, was basically man-made. Fukushima happened in one of the most extreme environments - east coast of Japan, one of the world's most seismically active regions. Also nuclear safety went ahead since then - these were both designs from 70s (!), we're 50 years away from the 70s.

[2] There are proliferation risks (though I still question whether they are as bad as global warming), but most of carbon emissions are from rich countries anyway (and we kinda equate rich with non-terrorist).

[3] Nuclear is expensive, but it is because it got much safer. We could, presumably, just take the old, less safe designs and build using those - and recreate all the above back-of-the-napkin maths. We could instead assume nuclear is indeed very expensive, but then we'd need to reduce the expected death toll numbers.

[4] Many regions can perhaps, indeed, do without nuclear and rely on solar, wind and hydro - great, good for you. Can you really do it without gas peaker plants or other "top ups"? Well if you can even nicer, but plenty of places cannot. But that's all good, that means we need less nuclear to achieve the same zero-carbon goal.

Re: Nuclear turn green as EU parliament approves new taxonomy

#170
post #31

De-nuclearization of other European countries is a long-held goal of the German environmentalist movement and the Green party. It's understandable that France doesn't want to go with that, as they don't want to be forced down the same ruinous path we're currently on here in Germany. And honestly, good for them. It's just sad to see how little actual science is respected in Germany. I did my PhD at the French nuclear…

There are also many institutes (e.g IDW) constantly pumping out papers that conclude nuclear energy has highest costs, highest danger, will leave unsolvable toxic waste problems, renewable energy is extremely cheap, building enough storage is no problem etc. These people are constantly invited to present these „Zukunftsenergien“ as opposed to the old bad nuclear in talk shows. And yet Germany, after two decades and c…

Sorry but you and GP complaining about how policy prevented nuclear from being the backbone of energy supply, then totally ignoring the impact of policy on the supply of renewables, that is a pretty weak way to argue.

The politics in Germany have been pretty actively hostile to wind under the conservative governments. Check this graph I just compiled out of the stats from wikipedia:

https://wtf.roflcopter.fr/pics/gcd4Rw5d/49s68U7X.png

Yeah, if you introduce legislation that "these people" tell you will stall the construction, then _exactly_ that tends to happen. The 10H rules and other BS from the conservatives were expressly and successfully introduced to stifle wind energy construction.

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