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The Swerve

locusmag.com

161–170 of 207 posts

Re: The Swerve

#161
Princes fight other princes. This activity dominates their lives and fills their entire perspective.

Which makes sense. Because if you let up for a moment, your competition surely won't.

So to tell the princes, "hey, put that furious game aside for a sec. We have something more important to attend to" isn't gonna do it.

I think that the princes, these people who control the world, are psychologically incapable of quitting the prince-game.

Re: The Swerve

#162
How many times have you flown somewhere in the last 10 years? How many commutes have you made?

Travel is the most inefficient, wasteful, and anti-climate activity I can think of because for many cases it is simply unnecessary or discretionary. Beyond having some 100,000 flights per day pumping greenhouse gases directly into the atmosphere think of the infrastructure and workforce involved in running airports, hotels, car rentals, shuttles, parking lots, restaurants, uber/taxis, etc.

I think air travel should be rare and expensive especially for business and vacations. Perhaps a heavy tax on business and pleasure travel would be good place to start.

While we are at it work should be done remotely whenever possible and empty office buildings should be renovated into affordable housing.

Re: The Swerve

#164
Is it naive to think we could prevent the impending ecological collapse and international conflict with mass fusion power? Unlimited energy to remove carbon from the atmosphere, oceans, etc. You also don't need to sell the rich on a life of austerity, as that kind of electricity would allow us to continue and even increase our current Western way of life.

Re: The Swerve

#165
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more like we are stuck in a confined space and slowly gassing ourselves with CO2 and we are arguing over turning the engine off. Oh, wait, no, it is literally that.

I feel like the analogy has to be fleshed out with the caveat that "turning the engine off" kills some > 50% of the people in the confined space right away.

I don’t know why this was downvoted - it has the ring of truth. If you could wave a magic wand and do away with fossil fuels tomorrow it would bring untold suffering on the world.

We have to wind the engine down while shifting the work over to a parallel electric motor that we’re in the process of building.

Re: The Swerve

#166
The green of developed countries simply outsources the dirty to the poorer neighbours who don’t have regulations and need the money. Germany has outsourced food to southern and eastern europe, everything but high margin manufacturing to China, recycling or garbage to whomever is willing to dirty up their air for money (aka the mafia or authoritarian leaders who want more money, which then takes it to poor corrupt countries and burns it), energy to Russia, and military ti the US.

Until your green is everyone’s green, the planet is not getting saved. Safe nuclear and other helpful tech is where surplus money should be going.

Re: The Swerve

#167
post #57

Respectfully suggest this is nonsense. No serious climate scientist thinks we are going to fall off a cliff. There will be huge costs, yes. Civilization won't end, no. What people fail to grasp is that costs can be absolutely enormous but look like a blip compared to the effect of GDP growth in the long run. World War II is an example. The millions of deaths barely show up on a graph of world population. The huge los…

Nature did a poll of IPCC authors (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02990-w) and 60% of them expect the world to warm >= 3°C.

Re: The Swerve

#168
post #160

Another option is to pump the brakes . > “ As the lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus in India continues, pollution levels across much of the country have dropped sharply. Now some residents in northern India say they can see the snow-capped Himalayas 200 kilometres away for the first time in 30 years. ” [1] If we had a global deflationary economic system, the incentive to invest in capital and engage in consu…

This works really well if you have $480,000 in savings, but it doesn't really work if you have 0 savings, or debt. Deflation, with its disincentives to investment or economic growth, would reduce employment and real wages. Most Americans would lose their jobs or see their wages cut as the economy ground to a halt. Anyone with debt would likely be trapped working for the rest of their life at subsistence wages, never…

So? What about the cliff? Isn't that more important than getting people out of debt? It's this kind of thing that makes reasonable people who do want to avert climate disaster wonder whether the cliff analogy isn't just a rallying cry to push an agenda of nationalization and redistribution of private property. In other words, just because we do swerve doesn't mean the socioeconomic upheaval is likely to work out in favor of people who want to eat the rich, or anything resembling justice either. More likely what will happen is everyone will get poorer in a somewhat linear fashion, meaning the rich will still be rich and the poor will be below water.

If the only way to cure the climate crisis is to prevent people from flying having tchotchkes, how naive is Corey to think that the rich will somehow stop those things before the middle class and poor do?

But it's dangerous and flawed to mix climate targets with social justice targets for this very reason. Hinging the swerve on a social/economic revolution means it will never happen.

Re: The Swerve

#169

Is it naive to think we could prevent the impending ecological collapse and international conflict with mass fusion power? Unlimited energy to remove carbon from the atmosphere, oceans, etc. You also don't need to sell the rich on a life of austerity, as that kind of electricity would allow us to continue and even increase our current Western way of life.

Today, fusion power is not workable. We have no idea if or when it will be.

"Let's carry on as-is until fusion works" is "don't worry, we'll put wings on the bus" in Doctorow's terms. By all means, let's continue fusion research. But we should also urgently work on some other angles just in case.

Re: The Swerve

#170
post #160

Another option is to pump the brakes . > “ As the lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus in India continues, pollution levels across much of the country have dropped sharply. Now some residents in northern India say they can see the snow-capped Himalayas 200 kilometres away for the first time in 30 years. ” [1] If we had a global deflationary economic system, the incentive to invest in capital and engage in consu…

This works really well if you have $480,000 in savings, but it doesn't really work if you have 0 savings, or debt. Deflation, with its disincentives to investment or economic growth, would reduce employment and real wages. Most Americans would lose their jobs or see their wages cut as the economy ground to a halt. Anyone with debt would likely be trapped working for the rest of their life at subsistence wages, never…

Hyperinflation of the old currency would erase all debt denominated in it as we shift to a global deflationary economic system.

Once in the deflationary environment, the cost of borrowing would be higher, and there would be less reason to work, consume and invest. Hence, there would be less incentive to take on debt.

Many things are preferable to having 0 savings and a planet on fire.

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