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Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

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Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#31

Post by balderdash »

krashidov wrote: post #29
cs702 wrote: post #2

This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…

Wouldn’t this just cause a perpetual yo-yo effect of the oil prices? If there is a sudden large shortage wouldn’t that cause prices to spike? Could that be what we’re seeing today ?

Just pull up a 20 year price chart on crude oil or natural gas.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#32

Post by NaNDude »

cheaprentalyeti wrote: post #25
cs702 wrote: post #2

This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…

Just wondering... do they actually understand that (for instance) coal hasn't been replaced by solar and wind but by solar + wind + natural gas peaking plants and pressure-points related to natural gas are actually under more stress? Or that the regulatory changes in the pipeline business actually make the swings in natural gas shipment more volatile?

not a response to the question but... actually replacing an usage usually change this usage, but the effect on demand when thoses are primary ressources is'nt linked to this change. coal for exemple is a good source of synthetic fuel (fischer-tropsch process) and 1/6 of actual chinese fuel source or the wood demand exploded with coal usage, for mining it, before surface mining. just to point out that there is mostly no such thing as "energy transitionning" in the humain history, it's a cumulative process.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#33

Post by AtlasBarfed »

cs702 wrote: post #2

This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…

Financing will cliffdive I would guess, since I would also guess that investing in oil is a 10-year payoff or similar scale. In ten years solar/wind/EV might be half the cost of gas turbine / ICE.

We should probably increase the national supply and use that to smooth the kinks.

And it pains me a diehard environmentalist, but we should probably subsidize the shale/fracking oil industry in North Dakota and other places to ease the transition as well.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#34

Post by btbuildem »

impostervt wrote: post #3

I recently started a book on a similar subject - "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan. It mainly discusses the coming demographic bust most places in the world will see, and how that will lead to a breakdown of the author calls "The Order" - the American-backed protection of cheap and safe transport of materials across the oceans. He sees a bright outlook for America, which can create all the…

Does he include the effects of climate change in his analysis? I found it sorely lacking in Accidental Superpower; he tacks it on in an appendix, but it seems a really disingenuous take.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#35

Post by michael1999 »

cs702 wrote: post #2

This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…

I expect there will be lots of surprising second order effects. Asphalt roads become uneconomical once oil refining stops producing enough bitumen waste. We're in for a wild ride.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#36

Post by AnimalMuppet »

michael1999 wrote: post #35
cs702 wrote: post #2

This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…

I expect there will be lots of surprising second order effects. Asphalt roads become uneconomical once oil refining stops producing enough bitumen waste. We're in for a wild ride.

I'm not sure about that. Refining right now doesn't just refine (separate into different components). It also changes longer molecules into shorter ones, a process called "cracking". They do this because we want more gasoline than the fraction that naturally occurs in petroleum. This (massively oversimplifying) gives more gasoline and less asphalt.

Well, if we use less gasoline, but we still want asphalt, the answer is to stop cracking, or at least to not crack as much. And the refineries would be happy to do so, since cracking is expensive.

I mean, you could get to a point where, if you just take the natural fractions in petroleum, there still isn't enough asphalt, but that's not going to happen for a while. (If ever. I suspect - but I do not know - that petrochemicals don't primarily want the tar/bitumen/asphalt fraction.)

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#37

Post by ZeroGravitas »

XBR wrote: post #24
eggsmediumrare wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That does appear to be a blindspot of his... For all that he likes to write about transformational technology and other factors that can transcend geography, he doesn't like to include stuff like green energy or even climate change in general in his model.

Peter Zeihan on limitations of green energy. https://youtu.be/LtH9rJAHbEA Part 2 https://youtu.be/wuGp4LVMPVk

I've only watched the first 5 minutes so far, but he clearly has no idea what he is talking about.

Re: Asset-Level Transition Risk in the Global Coal, Oil, and Gas Supply Chains

#38

Post by michael1999 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #36
michael1999 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect there will be lots of surprising second order effects. Asphalt roads become uneconomical once oil refining stops producing enough bitumen waste. We're in for a wild ride.

I'm not sure about that. Refining right now doesn't just refine (separate into different components). It also changes longer molecules into shorter ones, a process called "cracking". They do this because we want more gasoline than the fraction that naturally occurs in petroleum. This ( massively oversimplifying) gives more gasoline and less asphalt. Well, if we use less gasoline, but we still want asphalt, the answer…

We're talking about a hypothetical future where total gasoline consumption is trending down. In that world, bitumen is no longer a waste product, and starts having to carry the price of extraction and pipeline cost. That would make new highways much more expensive.

The likelihood and timeframe of that future is a separate issue, and I'm not holding my breath. Even if Europe really does ban new ICEs in the the 2030s, there's a long tail to to it.

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