The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum • Hacker News Board

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#131

Post by loeg » Mon, Jul 04, 2022, 11:06 PM UTC

stephc_int13 wrote: post #97

loeg wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, anti-crypto sentiment is good and pro-crypto sentiment isn’t. “Both-sidesing” this is nonsense.

I hate crypto with passion, from the beginning, but intellectually I am still on the fence. It might be as bad, shallow and devoid of value as any other Ponzi scheme of Tulip Mania, and this is sentiment I have about it, but this is not proof. What if the haters are too biased to see the real value of the so-called "blockchain"? Only History will tell.

> Only History will tell.

We've had more than ten years of crypto/blockchain history already. We don't need more time to tell -- we have many years of it already being awful. History is already telling us.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#132

Post by AlexandrB » Mon, Jul 04, 2022, 11:39 PM UTC

rvz wrote: post #125

ditonal wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hacker News has gotten overwhelmingly anti-crypto to an extent it’s as bad an echo chamber as many pro-crypto echo chambers. People have such a hatred for crypto they are overjoyed to celebrate a crypto crash. They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping. But…have people actually looked around? Airbnb stock is down 80% in the last 6 months. Netflix, Twilio,…

Well said. I'm actually laughing at both the extreme delusional anti-crypto folks and the extreme pro-crypto folks since they will both be disappointed with their vision(s) of either all of them being destroyed or all projects succeeding. Not all these projects will survive, 90% of crypto projects will die, just like the 90% of these startups failing and the fact that we are seeing the many projects and startups gett…

When startups fail, VCs lose a bunch of investor money. When crypto products fail, a bunch of retail investors/users lured by Super Bowl ads lose (sometimes) all their savings. The difference is stark. Having 90% of crypto projects fail is going to leave a trail of human misery.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#133

Post by sshine » Mon, Jul 04, 2022, 11:40 PM UTC

kareemsabri wrote: post #122

sshine wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Stocks go down" isn't a redemption of the crypto narrative. It’s not, but “reality catching up on speculative, excessive growth” isn’t purely a cryptocurrency thing; they’re just so much a symptom of everyone wanting in on that tech stonks that only VCs could afford. It’s funny how “the Uber of X” was an admirable description, considering that whole economic model is being questioned right now. Perhaps it just was…

There are two (at least) events playing out right now. The first is an asset bubble being pricked by cheap capital being removed from the market due to the fed raising interest rates after a decade or so of monetary policy that forced people to seek out yield wherever they could. That event is playing out in both crypto and stocks, which is what people seem to be pointing at to say the assets are the same. The second…

> In stocks, I can point to a price-to-earnings ratio or a price-to-sales ratio

> In Bitcoin, [...] what can I use to distinguish between "excessive" growth and appropriate growth?

I suppose it depends on what you think Bitcoin is.

It sounds like you think it's a stock.

The SEC thinks it's a commodity.

Clearly it was intended to be a currency, although a very gold-like one.

https://journal.bitcoinreserve.com/can-we-calculate-bitcoins...

[...] researchers determine bitcoin's value based on its use in the following "addressable" markets—areas in which the asset can find the most use:

The unbanked, Tax evasion, Remittance, Online transactions, Store of value, Micropayments, Reserve currency, Offshore accounts, Medium of exchange

Reserve currency counts among bitcoin's many capturable "markets." Arguably this market is one in which bitcoin could wholly dominate—by becoming a global reserve currency.

(...the article goes into more depth.)

> There is a critique that can be made of the stock market that it is essentially a speculative game

Stocks have clear utility:

You don't have to own literal grain to be invested in our food supplies.

And you can hedge some of the risk of literally owning grain to people with money.

Whatever the underlying value of an asset is, the asset itself provides ability for hedging, which itself is valuable.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#134

Post by Zamicol » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 12:13 AM UTC

overtonwhy wrote: post #128

Zamicol wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is Ethereum, chopped liver? Those that disagreed with the small block Bitcoin plutocrats moved to other projects, mainly Ethereum.

Russian

Russian what?

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#135

Post by AceJohnny2 » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 1:17 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #33

When I first saw things like “crypto.com” on a big football team’s jersey, a stadium name or in F1, I knew it was only a matter of time until it all came crashing down. I can’t believe I’m longing back to the days when it was gambling and petroligarchs instead.

Reminds me of a classic story about uber-banker JP Morgan getting stock questions from his shoe-shine boy, and so deciding to sell all stock sensing a crash was coming.

His reasoning was that if even the shoe-shine boy was buying stock, the market was saturated and had no-where to go but down.

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/5273325-j-p-morgan-tells-th...

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#136

Post by lamontcg » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 1:33 AM UTC

ditonal wrote: post #63

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

Hacker News has gotten overwhelmingly anti-crypto to an extent it’s as bad an echo chamber as many pro-crypto echo chambers. People have such a hatred for crypto they are overjoyed to celebrate a crypto crash. They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping. But…have people actually looked around? Airbnb stock is down 80% in the last 6 months. Netflix, Twilio,…

We still haven't seen a month of negative employment numbers yet.

The fed rate is still under 2%, it was 2.41% in March of 2019, there's still room to continue to take the punchbowl away.

Gas prices are still high and inflation is still pretty much on a tear. It took a bit of a pause but $110/bbl oil is still quite high.

This is not even a recession yet.

At the same time though the fed tacking on 50 and 75 bp rate hikes and talking about how they want to puncture the housing market sounds like we're definitely going to have one. And I don't think that is just all talk since we've seen actual increases in real labor costs, unionization and a large overhang of jobs, along with worker sentiment towards job hopping and zero job loyalty.

So I very much think we're only at the start here. The Fed is going to continue to jack up rates until something(s) in the real economy significantly pops. And Zuckerberg and Musk have been talking tough-economy talk and they're likely bellweathers for what the CEO/billionaire class is thinking.

I don't think we've seen the crypto crash yet.

When (not if) Coinbase pops then I think we'll be in the middle of it.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#137

Post by Animats » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 4:45 AM UTC

AlexandrB wrote: post #65

Animats wrote: post #31

But the guy who wrote the article is sure ad spend on crypto is coming back. Maybe not. Most of crypto works like a Ponzi scheme. Gains to early investors come from later investors. Eventually, you run out of suckers. We're there. Last 24 hours: - Someone pulled another $160 million out of USDT. Look at their market cap graph for the last 3 months. Every few days, somebody pulls out another $100 million+ amount. Pret…

Watching the USDT market cap is like watching a bomb counting down but now knowing where "0" is.

Another cash-out in the last few hours, $40 million or so.

Wonder what will happen tomorrow when everyone is back at their trading desks and dealing with the collapses over the holiday.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#138

Post by jquery » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 5:23 AM UTC

overtonwhy wrote: post #127

jquery wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder what the remaining USDT holders are waiting for? Is it just the market isn't liquid enough to pull out more than $100M/day?

Tether is not regulated or licensed by any body AFAIK so they aren’t required to process payment requests with any sort or timeliness. lul Same with the unlicensed and unregulated exchanges that they do business with. You want out? Take a number and get in line.

So basically tether is just hoping by dragging their feet that btc will recover in price and their embezzlement won’t be exposed?

If I had a large amount of USDT I would get out right now and wait for things to settle down. There’s no upside, it’s all downside right now.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#139

Post by rsynnott » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 11:00 AM UTC

I mean, good.

In Dublin, for a few weeks, seemingly half the buses had ads for something called Floki Coin, which was, and I can't believe I'm typing this, named after Elon Musk's dog. Everyone, _everyone_, who saw those ads and bought in would have lost money. Lost everything, if they'd stayed in.

(Ultimately, a complaint against the ads was upheld, but by then it was far too late: https://www.businesspost.ie/news/asai-upholds-complaints-aga...)

The world would be a better place with no cryptocurrency ads.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#140

Post by rsynnott » Tue, Jul 05, 2022, 11:07 AM UTC

ditonal wrote: post #63

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

Hacker News has gotten overwhelmingly anti-crypto to an extent it’s as bad an echo chamber as many pro-crypto echo chambers. People have such a hatred for crypto they are overjoyed to celebrate a crypto crash. They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping. But…have people actually looked around? Airbnb stock is down 80% in the last 6 months. Netflix, Twilio,…

> They were annoyed people they disliked were getting rich and now feel “vindicated” the bubble is popping.

No, I was annoyed that people were being scammed. The bulk of this crypto advertising was aimed at selling extremely dubious products to normal people who had no idea what they were getting themselves into. If another crypto ad is never placed, the world will be a better place.