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Is the Ride over for Uber?

smartcompany.com.au

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Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#201

Post by XorNot »

pm90 wrote: post #187
XorNot wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not saying it would take 15 to build, they're saying that maintaining it does not take nearly as many staff as they currently have. Which is correct: if Uber is simply a rideshare company, then with the technology established it should be winding down it's dev teams. If it's instead a "every market" company then it should be doing that with its considerable on-payroll staff.

No, maintaining a complex app with thousands of microservices doing a bajillion things still takes a lot (a LOT) more than 15 people.

I mean I'm reading that as hyperbole - the point is that the head count to keep it running should be a lot lower then the head count to build it, keep building it, etc.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#202

Post by cinntaile »

Teever wrote: post #196
sushid wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then ride a cab? You're involving a middle man because they do a pretty damn good job taking you from point A to point B. It's the same reason you might want to use Amazon to buy something and "take money out of your community."

I take the bus, but I noticed lately that I haven't seen a cab in my city in months, whereas pre Uber I used to see dozens of them a day. For better or worse I think that Uber destroyed the cab industry in my city. Either way, I still think that we could have some sort of decentralized ride sharing platform that doesn't suck so much money out of local communities. I think that this would be better for communities and…

Local cabs need to innovate and provide an app with similar features. If they do that, they'll probably stay in business. If not... Good luck.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#203

Post by alkonaut »

MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #75
voz_ wrote: post #25

Uber is an example of a company that wants to be a tech company, but (1) really shouldn't (2) kinda lacks the technical leadership to really be one. It feels like the right call, around 2017, was to either: (A) double down and build a platform for every kind of physical multisided marketplace (matching as a service, maps+routing+locations+geofences as a service, physical product ops as a service, etc) Where Amazon we…

I love the "small team of focused engineers" trope for apps like uber. It's so easy to blow past that number. Website? That's a team. iPhone app? That's a team. Android? Another team. Data collection and A/B testing platform for all the front ends? Another team. Backend? A team. Infrastructure? Another team. AI solutions for problems like delivery time estimation? Another very expensive team. BI for the executives? Y…

These aren’t unique apps though. In my deregulated taxi market all taxi companies (dozens) have Uber functionality where you track cars on maps, pay via app, book rides in the app and so on.

And many of the largest ones use the same app. Because they aren’t in that business, they are in the taxi business. If there is a margin to be found in scheduling or pricing, then their app supplier should provide it.

This is perhaps what Uber should be doing: making the white label apps for local companies doing ride services.

Not sure how many taxi markets are that unregulated that they allow it.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#204

Post by youngtaff »

winternett wrote: post #39
aetherson wrote: post #9

The problem with Uber Eats is exactly the same as the problem with Uber's rideshare: there's no difficult-to-copy element of it. It's been clear for at least seven years that it's easy to spin up a food delivery service, just the same way it's easy to spin up a rideshare service. The basic technology is something a small team can conjure up out of nowhere in a few months, the two sided marketplace is heavily incented…

It's typical "bait and switch" and that's why it simply doesn't work out in the long run... A company starts a web site and sets pricing on their service at a very low rate, while subsidizing it's financial loss with investment money at a loss. The company gradually increases costs and pricing over time for suppliers, employees, and on users until it finds a sweet spot in hopes that no one will notice, while also pro…

Exactly!

How Uber is a $50bn business is beyond me

- they have never made a profit - they’re unlikely to ever make a profit unlikely to ever reduce costs enough - they need to reduce expensive headcount rather than squeeze drivers and restaurants - the early money sole out at a profit while passing their losses onto new punters via IPO

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#205

Post by deepGem »

batiudrami wrote: post #190
deepGem wrote: post #111

I think the market is ripe for a real Uber Black. A super premium service that guarantees a cab no matter where you are within a minute. No cancellations. Your own personal on demand limousine. People are so tired of cancellations and not finding rides, I bet some will pay a premium just for the predictability that you can go anywhere whenever you desire.

Not enough people to make anywhere near “in a minute” achievable. Maybe in half an hour in dense cities. We know from air travel that most people prefer to pay the lowest fare for the worst cattle class airfare.

There are those who pay for business and first class though. It’s a matter of figuring out the price per km and commission dynamics. With the appropriate incentives and commissions supply should ease out. Obviously am trivialising this approach. It will be great to understand why Uber Black couldn’t scale.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#206

Post by Ekaros »

voz_ wrote: post #25

Uber is an example of a company that wants to be a tech company, but (1) really shouldn't (2) kinda lacks the technical leadership to really be one. It feels like the right call, around 2017, was to either: (A) double down and build a platform for every kind of physical multisided marketplace (matching as a service, maps+routing+locations+geofences as a service, physical product ops as a service, etc) Where Amazon we…

The problem really is that Uber isn't in a markets that are "tech". Neither is Amazon retail for that side... Taxi and food delivery are horribly thin margin businesses and you really can't change that. Just because someone is middle man there doesn't mean they really are in tech, specially when they are the contact point for both sides.

Now if they were selling platform for other people to operate, I could see them being tech...

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#207

Post by Ekaros »

addicted wrote: post #19
aetherson wrote: post #9

The problem with Uber Eats is exactly the same as the problem with Uber's rideshare: there's no difficult-to-copy element of it. It's been clear for at least seven years that it's easy to spin up a food delivery service, just the same way it's easy to spin up a rideshare service. The basic technology is something a small team can conjure up out of nowhere in a few months, the two sided marketplace is heavily incented…

Let’s say there was just 1 delivery service. Could they charge enough delivery fees to actually build a sustainable business? How much fees would you need to charge? $4/delivery means having to make a delivery in 15 mins to be able to pay the delivery person minimum wage. Plus Uber’s profit, plus the cost of the car and maintenance expenses + tickets, accidents, etc, It’s hard to see how a monopoly can also make mone…

We had an operator here which was essentially marketplace. Mostly pizza and kebab. But basically what they did was offer a marketplace for online food ordering. And the delivery was done by restaurants. To me that looks like most reasonable model, hiring people for delivery on low margin items while marketplace charges massive fees just isn't sustainable.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#208

Post by Ekaros »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #8
prophesi wrote: post #5

Uber's IPO prospectus pretty much says they'd only be profitable if they can achieve a global monopoly to charge their own prices, and/or hope that driverless cars become ubiquitous soon. So this isn't too surprising, and also the status quo for most startups to burn investor cash ad-infinitum until they reach the theoretical gold at the end of the rainbow.

Well they are not the mafia. If Uber has a monopoly, and wants to charge me $50 instead of $10 to get to the city centre, I won't go, or find another (non-ride-sharing) way to get there. I might go 1 in 100 times of course because of urgency. But then regular cabs are still a thing too. This is the problem with being the middleman in a low margin world. I don't want to pay a fortune to get somewhere, and the driver h…

I never understood hailing self-driving as some money printing greatness. Unless there is just single company selling them.

Otherwise it is race to bottom. Maybe if they are lucky generating 2-10% profit on the vehicle. With certain operators having massive fleets and very high capital investments.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#209

Post by Ekaros »

Nursie wrote: post #132

Uber is broken in my city now. They don't pay very well, so there aren't many drivers. The drivers that are around will accept a ride, then fuck around for a while, driving further away, doing whatever (no, there are no scheduled drop-offs, they deliberately waste time). Then you cancel, then when you try to re-book to get a different driver ... oh look, surge pricing, it's an extra $20 for that journey now. This is…

All of these companies should have been prosecuted for dumping let's say after 1st month on the market. If what you charge isn't more than you pay out for service you provide you should not be allowed to operate.

On other hand, I wouldn't include RnD and management to that.

Re: Is the Ride over for Uber?

#210

Post by youngtaff »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #149
aetherson wrote: post #9

The problem with Uber Eats is exactly the same as the problem with Uber's rideshare: there's no difficult-to-copy element of it. It's been clear for at least seven years that it's easy to spin up a food delivery service, just the same way it's easy to spin up a rideshare service. The basic technology is something a small team can conjure up out of nowhere in a few months, the two sided marketplace is heavily incented…

Why aren't there a ton of uber competitors around here then? It's been Uber and Lyft and taxi companies and that's been it... Am I missing something with your argument?

Maybe Because Uber is a loss making business, that seems little prospect of making a profit?

Other options do exist - things like Gett in the U.K. for example, not sure how profitable they are either though and some large taxi companies have their own apps too

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