11–20 of 38 posts
This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…
I recently started a book on a similar subject - "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan. It mainly discusses the coming demographic bust most places in the world will see, and how that will lead to a breakdown of the author calls "The Order" - the American-backed protection of cheap and safe transport of materials across the oceans. He sees a bright outlook for America, which can create all the…
(His first book, Accidental Empire, does a good job introducing his overall PoV, applying it to most of the great civilizations in history starting with ancient Egypt. This book predicted in 2014 that Russia would invade the rest of Ukraine by end of 2021. His next book, Absent Superpower, has the most on fossil fuels.)
This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…
Fascinating. I wonder if that conclusion holds if, instead of assets being shut down due to lack of demand, links are chopped off by war & geopolitical instability. This is another likely consequence of climate change and we're seeing it already with MidEast instability + Russia/Ukraine war. The lesson perhaps is that regions and individuals should do their best to disconnect their energy usage from the global fossil…
The last time I noticed this was when I read old texts from (socialist) GDR. Apparently, it is a sign of a fundamental economic crisis.
I recently started a book on a similar subject - "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan. It mainly discusses the coming demographic bust most places in the world will see, and how that will lead to a breakdown of the author calls "The Order" - the American-backed protection of cheap and safe transport of materials across the oceans. He sees a bright outlook for America, which can create all the…
Over the past several months I read all his books. His previous book, Disunited Nations , is probably best for making the demographic argument. He devotes chapters to individual countries, covering their situations in detail, starting with several chapters on China. (His first book, Accidental Empire , does a good job introducing his overall PoV, applying it to most of the great civilizations in history starting with…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over the past several months I read all his books. His previous book, Disunited Nations , is probably best for making the demographic argument. He devotes chapters to individual countries, covering their situations in detail, starting with several chapters on China. (His first book, Accidental Empire , does a good job introducing his overall PoV, applying it to most of the great civilizations in history starting with…
What was his theorized motivation for Russian invasion, geopolitical or otherwise? Was it tied to Nato moving in, as others have advocated, or something different?
- The Russians consider some nine-odd geographic boundaries of the former union to be crucial to defense (e.g. between mountains and deserts, certain ports). Without fortifying there, a lot of the Rus land area is open and hard to defend. Interestingly, Ukraine contains only one in Crimea (which they already had) but is on the way to ones in Romania, Poland, etc.
- With the fall of the union, there was not only a baby bust but also the collapse of technical training programs. The "demographic cliff" means that not only will the army half in size but, e.g. the rail lines and electric are also in danger.
- While Ukrainian resolve and EU unity were a surprise to even the US, he also sees a leadership failing not unlike the Chinese one - authoritarian that drives out opposition too harshly also drives out the people in the room that push back on bad ideas. FSB had intelligence that overwhelmingly, UA would accept occupation?
This looks like fantastic work. I hadn't come across it before. Thank you for sharing it on HN. The authors simulate a network of ~6 million real-world assets used for extracting/processing/using fossil fuels, interconnected by ~16 million ground/maritime transportation flows. The simulations match actual fossil fuel flows at every location. The data and code have been open-sourced. The authors use the simulation to…
It seems valuable to simulate all international trade, asset markets, supply and demand, employment, etc. to make predictions. It could also lead to better ideas to prevent or quell recessions by focusing attention on the correct levers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Over the past several months I read all his books. His previous book, Disunited Nations , is probably best for making the demographic argument. He devotes chapters to individual countries, covering their situations in detail, starting with several chapters on China. (His first book, Accidental Empire , does a good job introducing his overall PoV, applying it to most of the great civilizations in history starting with…
What was his theorized motivation for Russian invasion, geopolitical or otherwise? Was it tied to Nato moving in, as others have advocated, or something different?
Meanwhile, Russia has horrendous demographic problems. Their fertility rate dropped to something like 1.2 children per woman when the Iron Curtain fell, and hasn't recovered. So now their military-age population is aging out. They're not going to have the population to defend Russia with the borders they have now, and right about now is when they start losing the ability to invade countries like Ukraine to expand their borders.
I recently started a book on a similar subject - "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan. It mainly discusses the coming demographic bust most places in the world will see, and how that will lead to a breakdown of the author calls "The Order" - the American-backed protection of cheap and safe transport of materials across the oceans. He sees a bright outlook for America, which can create all the…
I’m reading the same book. I think what Peter misses with regards to energy is that roughly 40% of ocean shipments are moving fossil energy around [1]; if you move to renewables, a lot of shipping goes away. China currently generates more power from renewables than all of Europe [2], and the CCP seems to be aware of how foundational cheap, reliable energy is to their economic prospects. They have the will and governm…