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Groupon shares open up 40%

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Re: Groupon shares open up 40%

#6

How many of the folks who bought these shares believe strongly in Groupon’s fundamentals and plan to “buy and hold?” Raise your hand. ... Crickets.

While others don't know when it will be a good time to short it, even though they want to. If you get it wrong you can get burnt.

With more Linkedin stock coming onto the market and the possibility of Facebook next year, things can get very interesting.

I like to buy and hold. I don't buy tech stocks. I work in IT. It might say something about having more blind confidence in predicting markets I understand less, or it might say something about tech stocks.

Re: Groupon shares open up 40%

#7
I haven't felt this strongly about shorting a stock long-term in a long time. But I don't know how long the short-term irrational exuberance is going to last - will it wipe out my investment before the stock crashes down?

I haven't seen one pro-Groupon (or general daily deals) analyses that says anything different than "it gets people in the door and generates buzz" which I think is nothing more than fuzzy PR talk since you very rarely hear of businesses that actually received long-term boosts. You read about how businesses don't benefit because mostly cheap non-returning users use Groupon deals (i.e. very few return customers) and it cheapens the businesses' full price pricing power to those who know of the Groupon (i.e. "since X was a Groupon in the past, I won't go there until there is a Groupon again").

Re: Groupon shares open up 40%

#8
post #3

"Groupon is only floating a small amount of shares, 35 million – about 5.5% of its 637.3 million shares outstanding." This reminds me of Jason Fried's prank that 37 Signals valuation tops $100B! http://37signals.com/svn/posts/1941-press-release-37signals-...

I guess, but that is how private companies are valued every day. I sell you 5% for $1 million, we are both agreeing that the company is worth $20 million.

Re: Groupon shares open up 40%

#9
post #6

How many of the folks who bought these shares believe strongly in Groupon’s fundamentals and plan to “buy and hold?” Raise your hand. ... Crickets.

While others don't know when it will be a good time to short it, even though they want to. If you get it wrong you can get burnt. With more Linkedin stock coming onto the market and the possibility of Facebook next year, things can get very interesting. I like to buy and hold. I don't buy tech stocks. I work in IT. It might say something about having more blind confidence in predicting markets I understand less, or i…

Just tell people you're diversifying.
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