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US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

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Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new thing is trying to go hypersonic in the atmosphere for more than a couple minutes so you can use it for lift. But either there's too much heat or not enough lift.

No, this is in fact not categorically new. MaRV and related demonstrated 60 G pull up to horizontal glide maneuvers. The technology of a HGV and a maneuverable re-entry vehicle are essentially the same. The main reason for talking about "hypersonics" as a separate category today is to emphasize flight profiles that would not be interpreted as nuclear strikes.

As I understand it, it's not about “not being interpreted as nuclear strike” — since almost every Russian missile (including anti-ship missiles like Kh22 and the likes) could potentially carry a nuclear warhead, they explicitly don't care about the ambiguity, while the Western doctrine is diametrically opposite, explicitly aiming for as little ambiguity as possible to keep the escalation risk low. And your interpretation basically goes against both doctrines. — But more about keeping a low trajectory so that the missile stays below the early-warning radar horizon for most of its flight, striking without warning, where a ballistic missile gets within the LOS of radars quite early due to its trajectory.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#152
post #45

One problem with these hypersonic endeavors and DOD development in general is there are too few tests (And done too slowly) to iterate. The developers do not get lots of opportunities to learn from real-data, like at SpaceX. Instead, there are low-single-digit numbers of tests with tons of political attention ready to pounce at the smallest (And most common!) failure.

In other words, if you aren't actively using a weapon in real war, it probably will fail when you try.

Kind of like the Russian ground forces in Ukraine. They hadn't fought real ground wars in a while.

Not sure what this says about humanity. But it certainly raises questions about how to maintain a defensive force. The answer, unfortunately, might be to have a series of small wars just to keep in practice. Even then, the knowledge gained might not translate well to a large war.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#153

I always hate the discussion around “hypersonic missiles” The US has had some version since the 1960s. What do you think ICBMs are? Real discussions should quantify precision, error rate, speed, payload of missiles, etc.

Yeah, any time somebody says "this thing goes Mach " the first question should be "at what altitude?" and the second should be "for how long?".

An AR-15 fires a bullet at Mach 3. Low altitude, maybe a second or so before it's lost a lot of speed.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#154
post #122
post #80

meanwhile, russia already used its hypersonic missile to strike a target in Ivano Frankovsk, Ukraine. less than 100 miles from NATO border. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-uses-hypersonic-...

It's the same ammo depot that later turned out to be a barn?

not sure about the target. the rocket is the one which can be equipped with nuclear warhead

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

only if you pretend nuclear submarines don't exist, and that russia knows where all second strike facilities are, and can target all of them with supersonic missiles. I don't think so.

> only if you pretend nuclear submarines don't exist Did you read my comment? I acknowledged that submarines would be the most reliable second strike option. Those are a lot of "ifs" sure, but it's a numbers game. If deployed hypersonics were as numerous as ICBMs in the 80s, then it would be about who strikes first. If a first strike can reduce the enemy population by 90%, and reduce their second strike capability to…

US boomers have enough firepower to wipe out everyone in Russia without the need for other weapons. That is the point. There is no 70%, it is 99.999%. At the end of the cold war a Soviet naval admiral said they had managed to track a US boomer twice for a few minutes.

The MAD balance is still there for the most part. The most part being it is unclear what % of Russian nukes still work given the shit show of maintenance and graft shown in the convention forces used in the Ukraine.

US has 14 Ohio class subs, ~90 warheads each. This is in addition to 400 MM3 ICBMs. Unlike the Russians the US knows their weapons system will work.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#156
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20 minutes later Russia would be dead. 20 minutes later the world. Been like this for many decades. That it hasn’t happened is kind of surprising.

How would US attribute who's sub it was? They would have to retaliate on every other (non-allied) country.

The US pretty much knows the location of the Russian missiles subs most of the the time. It would be a bit crazy to gamble on being sure the one you launch from was the one that was missed. Also most of the Russian boomer fleet is in dock most of the time.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Technically", "hypersonic" means "scary because it's hard to intercept" and "NATO is behind Russia and China on this". Elementary military marketing.

Yes, you understood the assignment. The public knows about US and NATO weapons what the US and NATO wants the public to know. Individuals in a position to know the truth, who violate the narrative, are dealt with harshly. Case in point: The public had relatively little knowledge of the battlefield performance of current gen ATGM's prior to Russia's recent offensive in Ukraine. This is in spite of the fact "current ge…

The scary hypersonic missiles are the large, suborbital ones that can be used for bombardment; anti-tank rockets are a different genre of weapon, with unrelated uses, projects and funding.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#158
post #154
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the same ammo depot that later turned out to be a barn?

not sure about the target. the rocket is the one which can be equipped with nuclear warhead

Every missile can, but it won’t help much if you don’t have working guidance, like in this case.

Of course you’re also assuming that a country that can’t even manufacture a car is somehow able to maintain nukes.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#159
post #135
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps because China is focused on defensive capabilities, not offensive?

Has nothing to do with offensive/defensive capabilities (which is really a straw man). They simply are proceeding with their carrier development in an incremental fashion, learning as they go. Almost every weapon or weapon system can be described as defensive or offensive, depending on the motives of the person discussing said systems.

What’s would be the defensive purpose of a nuclear aircraft carrier? The offensive part is obvious - makes a whole lot of difference when you are invading someplace on the other side of the world, which is what US Navy is optimized for.

Re: US hypersonic missile fails in test- 2nd consecutive failed attempt

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> only if you pretend nuclear submarines don't exist Did you read my comment? I acknowledged that submarines would be the most reliable second strike option. Those are a lot of "ifs" sure, but it's a numbers game. If deployed hypersonics were as numerous as ICBMs in the 80s, then it would be about who strikes first. If a first strike can reduce the enemy population by 90%, and reduce their second strike capability to…

US boomers have enough firepower to wipe out everyone in Russia without the need for other weapons. That is the point. There is no 70%, it is 99.999%. At the end of the cold war a Soviet naval admiral said they had managed to track a US boomer twice for a few minutes. The MAD balance is still there for the most part. The most part being it is unclear what % of Russian nukes still work given the shit show of maintenan…

It wont just be the US who responds either I think that its highly likely that both France and the UK launch nukes if the US gets attacked.
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