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Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

latimes.com

101–110 of 195 posts

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#101

entire regions being deserted is not a new thing (see mayan civilization). it's possible we'll see the cities of southern California (San Diego, Los Angeles) as remnants of an ancient culture in a few hundred years, left intact by the scorching heat and desert.

San Diego seems to be doing pretty well at water management. The naysayers weren't able to block the desalination plant and they are doing other things too.

Desalination plants have been tried in Europe for some time, and they still are problematic.

They use lots of energy. And then you need to get rid of hills of salt. Stuff that obviously can't be just put in any fertile soil or returned to the sea near the coast. A partial solution could be to use it in winter roads, but then you need to burn gas to move it to the North. At some time, you will cross the line where the water obtained is cheaper than the energy used to produce it plus collateral effects. And at this point the plant is not profitable and is just burning money to run.

So, I hate to say that, but there is no magic solution at sight, still.

This planet has a fabulous technology available for making excellent pure water. The problem is that we burn them all, each year.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#102
post #19

This is partially why I think the risk of homeownership is largely being understated. You may have entire communities that become uninsurable even long before an actual natural disaster occurs, and it becomes very difficult to cash out refinance or sell.

I think it's already happening in New Orleans. At least that was the impression I got when visiting. I think it can be difficult to insure a business or home affordably in the area. Seemed like a lot of storefronts were just empty. Perhaps I just went at a bad time of year (late nov).

> Seemed like a lot of storefronts were just empty.

This is just normal everywhere in 2022 :)

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#103
post #49
post #28

Quick Google stats: There are 13M households in California. Average household consumes 0.5-1.0 acre-feet of water per year. It costs $419 per acre-foot for desalination. California has a discretionary budget surplus of $49B. Thus: It would cost $2.7B-$5.4B per year to provide desalination-based water to all Californians. With the current budget surplus, we could provide 100% of California's living water needs for 10-…

I disagree that we should build desalination, even if we can "afford" it. There are agricultural users of water paying astronomically lower prices due to long standing water rights. It would almost certainly be cheaper to pay them to conserve (grow less of water-wasting crops, leave fields fallow, or upgrade to more efficient drip irrigation). The urban water use is around 20%, making them pay billions for this 20% m…

Or just make agriculture desalinate their own water on their own dime and let the people continue drinking the ground/river water.

It's not like you should be irrigating fields with that mineral-heavy water anyways, isn't it slowly salting the land?

If agriculture had to foot the bill for their desalination needs they would become more efficient automatically.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#104

Putting aside the fact the state has infrastructure designed for 20 million people (current population double that) water management was designed to have a five year buffer for cyclical drought years which has recently has been catastrophically mismanaged. I wish the LA Times would focus on that and the reality that if the state continues to grow, water pipelines from the northern states and Canada will need to be co…

You are not taking our water. You will need to move North.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or we could tell the vineyards we need water not wine. Wine makes substantial money for the state but it doesn't make sense if nobody can live in it. Or the almond guys, or other types of unsustainable agriculture in the state.

Vineyards aren’t particularly water intensive, are they? Compared to things like almonds and alfalfa

They are among the top consumers in CA. They're going to pump aquifers dry.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#106
post #28

Quick Google stats: There are 13M households in California. Average household consumes 0.5-1.0 acre-feet of water per year. It costs $419 per acre-foot for desalination. California has a discretionary budget surplus of $49B. Thus: It would cost $2.7B-$5.4B per year to provide desalination-based water to all Californians. With the current budget surplus, we could provide 100% of California's living water needs for 10-…

> It would cost

What costs does this $419/acre-foot cover?

(1 acre-foot = 325,851 gallons)

You'd also have to include the cost of transporting that water to every place that's not next to the desalinisation plant(s). That can be expensive, particulaly uphill to the mountains.

And does it cover the cost of handling the byproducts?

Today we pay about $120/mo for about 5000 gallons, so $1440 for 60000 gallons per year, so $2275 for acre-foot. Difficult to believe desalinized water would be as cheap as $419 since it is always described as very expensive way to get water.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Oh the typical techie solution to environmental problems. We can solve this with tech! In this case, yes, we literally can solve this with tech. We don't have to wait for the aquifers to dry up, because California has a ludicrously long coastline just begging for desalination plants up the wazoo.

You may need to check the orders of magnitude we are talking about here and then re-evaluate your statement. This is not about a few stretches of CA coastline. This is about all of the continental US. A few desal plants won't cut it.

No desal water will be enough for agriculture.

Only multigigawatt nuclear desal can privide so much fresh water economically.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#108
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that we should build desalination, even if we can "afford" it. There are agricultural users of water paying astronomically lower prices due to long standing water rights. It would almost certainly be cheaper to pay them to conserve (grow less of water-wasting crops, leave fields fallow, or upgrade to more efficient drip irrigation). The urban water use is around 20%, making them pay billions for this 20% m…

> leave fields fallow Please no. We're facing intense inflation, and the solution has to involve supply-side improvements, not just demand-side tweaks. Subsidies for drip irrigation sounds interesting, though - as long as actual water usage reduction is part of the requirement.

California can internally counter that problem by giving people a corresponding tax break or any number of policy remedies. For the rest of the nation, there is no obvious cooperative framework to explain to Californians on why they should face the looming risk of a water crisis on behalf of the rest of the nation, especially in such a hostile national atmosphere. California can also continue to provide favorable economic policy to staple crops as opposed to nice-to-have crops.

And it's not just California facing a water crisis. The Colorado river flows through multiple states and it's drying up at an alarming rate.

But we can agree that all available policy knobs should be tuned.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#109

Putting aside the fact the state has infrastructure designed for 20 million people (current population double that) water management was designed to have a five year buffer for cyclical drought years which has recently has been catastrophically mismanaged. I wish the LA Times would focus on that and the reality that if the state continues to grow, water pipelines from the northern states and Canada will need to be co…

You are not taking our water. You will need to move North.

I agree. This is where the endless affordable housing and immigration political movements fail. People need to live where adequate resources are.

Re: Extreme heat, drought will permanently scar California and its social fabric

#110
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pumping water from the California coast to Nevada is not a good idea. You’re basically describing a hydro plant, in reverse, carrying expensive water.

Not really much different than pumping Owen's valley water to LA...

A quick google search says Owen's valley is at 4k feet, while LA is at 300. I assume that reversing that would be incredibly expensive, considering the 570,000 acre-feet/year that flows is 1.5 trillion lbs of water.

So, I think it depends on where it's being pumped from/to.

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