Why I’m Cryptophobic • Hacker News Board

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#251

Post by noirbot » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:11 PM UTC

yellowapple wrote: post #164

mikeyouse wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - as a commenter on a technical forum - how much overlap do you think there is between yourself and the age/infosec knowledge/technical savvy of the type of person who pays for PHub in 2022?

Doesn't really make much of a difference; "only give your banking info to those you highly trust and only if it's absolutely necessary" has been common sense for longer than the Internet has existed.

Is it? Cause a lot of stuff still happens by check even now, which literally has your name and your account and routing numbers just printed on it, which you used to order by sending all of that information via the mail to a random printing company.

I already have to trust my power company, most of my credit cards, my ISP, my gas company, and my landlord with my bank info, all of which are probably less secure and trustworthy than Pornhub...

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#252

Post by bendtheblock » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:13 PM UTC

TrapLord_Rhodo wrote: post #238

The reason why me and my friends use crypto is simple. In the current financial system i give you ALL of my info and hope you don't rob me blind. In crypto i sent you money. Small distinction, but one that will be increasingly more important as we modernize.

I don't follow the automatic assumption that giving the info to centralised entity like a bank is bad? What is that you are fearing? And why is that more likely than Crypto sinking or going to zero, you losing your wallet key or someone hacking your wallet? Code is law - so you're left with nothing.

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#253

Post by bendtheblock » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:15 PM UTC

IncRnd wrote: post #87

> The world has never seen an economic phenomenon like crypto. There is no historical analogous technology trend or investment craze that comes close to capturing the sustained and frenzied momentum of crypto that has engulfed so many and that will continue to do. Never say never. Greed and speculation have a long and robust history. This crypto speculation and greed reminds of of the price of tulips. [1] During that…

the history of this type of speculation and others like it, that leaves many bust, was documented in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds published in 1841 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusion...

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#254

Post by bendtheblock » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:17 PM UTC

datadata wrote: post #156

IncRnd wrote: post #87

> The world has never seen an economic phenomenon like crypto. There is no historical analogous technology trend or investment craze that comes close to capturing the sustained and frenzied momentum of crypto that has engulfed so many and that will continue to do. Never say never. Greed and speculation have a long and robust history. This crypto speculation and greed reminds of of the price of tulips. [1] During that…

Whenever this comparison is drawn, it must also be pointed out that after the speculative bubble, the Netherlands has remained for centuries the center of a profitable and stable flower industry that was born in that time. The collapse was real and the speculation was real, but the emergence of a new industry was also real. This is also similar example to the dot com bubble.

nice rebuttal - but the "profitable and stable flower industry" is the trade of an underlying commodity with utility value i.e. the flowers. there is no such underlying asset with crypto. the part that is parallel is the rife speculation that left many bust.

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#255

Post by datadata » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:17 PM UTC

enaaem wrote: post #215

datadata wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The notion of property rights is only relevant with a central authority who is able to enforce it. The innovation of bitcoin is precisely making this statement no longer true. The "property" might only be digital data, rather than physical things, so you can argue that it is no longer true in only a limited context, but it is not longer absolutely true.

Absolute truth is not relevant because 99.99% of what you need to sustain yourself is physical. It’s practically 100%. Maintaining BTC itself requires physical inputs and physical property rights. You need fiat to buy energy. Your house with mining rigs needs enforcement of property rights.

The physical inputs to bitcoin are decentralized and robust against disruption. You don't need to be a miner yourself to store or transact.

> You need fiat to buy energy.

This is a circular argument and not true. You can buy energy today with gold or bitcoin.

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#256

Post by jjoonathan » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

syzygyhack wrote: post #159

jjoonathan wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's just it: bad choices in the social layer become nearly irrevocable once a self-interested, powerful elite emerges. The bad choices put them on top and they will do anything to stay there.

Not at all. If a self-interested minority emerges, the majority can fork away anew (see: Steem & Hive).

lol. You forgot to weight by wealth.

Regular economics uses the same dirty trick when it talks about value creation rather than wealth-weighted value creation. It stuffs all its dirty laundry in that one weight term and then "forgets" to talk about it. Oops!

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#257

Post by bendtheblock » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:18 PM UTC

wvlia5 wrote: post #223

Love it. First they mock you, then they fear you, then they accept you.

this is a pithy phrase with about as much logic as "Live, Laugh, Love"

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#258

Post by SilasX » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:20 PM UTC

mattnewton wrote: post #229

benreesman wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can invent quasi-financial terms to make grandiose claims. The beauty of the market is that loudmouths don’t participate in the market for long. I’ll sell an American-style options contract to someone who thinks BTC is going anywhere near there at Black-Scholes -75. And I’ll have no trouble financing it. You want the other side?

Not the person you are responding to, but is there somewhere reputable offering these kinds of contracts to no-name retail investors like myself? I would absolutely load up on something like 12,000 - 15,000 USD bitcoin puts depending on the time decay people are offering and how certain I could be that they would actually let me exercise them, and not freeze trading or even go belly up during the crash. I am somewhat…

In the US, LedgerX[1] (now owned by FTX) is a reputable, regulated exchange. The longest-dated put I see for $15k is EOY 2022 and is trading at a spread of $2000-8000.

You can buy puts at the $25k strike dated June 2023 for $4300-4800.

[1] https://app.ledgerx.com/btc There was a link that doesn't require login but I forgot it.

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#259

Post by wmf » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:20 PM UTC

zackmorris wrote: post #209

I have a dumb question that's probably user error on my part, but I can't seem to find a simple answer for: shouldn't BitCoin transaction fees (and thereby price) eventually stabilize to the cost of electricity plus hardware? And if so, then why would price fluctuate? It seems like there are 2 options: 1) Cryptocurrency transactions cost less than the cost of electricity: a market will form farming the price discrepa…

I don't understand what mental model you're using for the relationship between price, fees, and mining costs.

Bitcoin fees have nothing to do with the price or the cost of mining; fees are basically proportional to (transaction throughput demand) / (fixed transaction throughput supply).

I've seen various reports saying the cost to mine 1 BTC is between $8,000 and $13,000 so miners are still profitable. Note that mining ASICs have increased their efficiency since 2017 but difficulty has also increased.

Re: Why I’m Cryptophobic

#260

Post by benreesman » Thu, Jun 30, 2022, 6:21 PM UTC

mattnewton wrote: post #229

benreesman wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can invent quasi-financial terms to make grandiose claims. The beauty of the market is that loudmouths don’t participate in the market for long. I’ll sell an American-style options contract to someone who thinks BTC is going anywhere near there at Black-Scholes -75. And I’ll have no trouble financing it. You want the other side?

Not the person you are responding to, but is there somewhere reputable offering these kinds of contracts to no-name retail investors like myself? I would absolutely load up on something like 12,000 - 15,000 USD bitcoin puts depending on the time decay people are offering and how certain I could be that they would actually let me exercise them, and not freeze trading or even go belly up during the crash. I am somewhat…

Depends on the size. At retail size counterparty risk of e.g. Binance or FTX is a talking point, not a legitimate concern.

If you want to take a big position, talk to someone like Wintermute who has a big OTC desk, or if you want a better deal, find a friend of a friend. Someone you know knows a whale.