Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Basement Fertility

betonit.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 239 posts

Re: Basement Fertility

#211

Post by phpisthebest »

hef19898 wrote: post #205
phpisthebest wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The property acquired before marriage is yours after divorce That is generally only true until kids are in the picture, then the famous "what is best for the child" over rules all

Examples please where property was split because of that. Child support obviously takes real estate property into account, but the actual ownership? Not sure where this happens, but than I'm no family law expert and there are so many different countries that it actually just might happen.

Just about everyday in the USA.

Family courts take stability of the child over all else, so if the child is used to living in the family home who ever the custodial parent is will get possession of the home even if that custodial parent was not the owner of the home before the marriage

Re: Basement Fertility

#212

Post by imtringued »

BirAdam wrote: post #65
ozim wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is that our whole economic system is basically a Ponzi scheme. You get your payoff when you are selling stocks on your retirement to "next fool in chain" so 20-30 year olds. Land, houses will not go up in value if there would be not enough people to buy them. While yes people migrate to the cities or to areas like Randstad and while yes there is housing shortage in such areas but if immigration from rural are…

It's not just a Ponzi scheme due to population growth pressure and the old cashing out. It's also a Ponzi scheme because younger folks are literally paying for the older folks through taxation. Low interest rates also disincentivize saving while subsidizing the accumulation of debt, and spurring more investment into asset classes (land and stocks mostly). This creates a Ponzi like effect where in as long as people ke…

>Low interest rates also disincentivize saving while subsidizing the accumulation of debt, and spurring more investment into asset classes (land and stocks mostly).

You're talking about how low interest rates are a Ponzi scheme yet it doesn't occur to you that maintaining positive interest forever is an even bigger Ponzi scheme.

Re: Basement Fertility

#213

Post by imtringued »

ozim wrote: post #53
ozim wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is that our whole economic system is basically a Ponzi scheme. You get your payoff when you are selling stocks on your retirement to "next fool in chain" so 20-30 year olds. Land, houses will not go up in value if there would be not enough people to buy them. While yes people migrate to the cities or to areas like Randstad and while yes there is housing shortage in such areas but if immigration from rural are…

To complete comment I have to add one more thought. Infinite growth is also required for high quality of life unfortunately. Once there is no promise of future earnings by spending now - we start going into zero sum game. Living in a society where every day you have to worry about not loosing piece of pie is really a bad life to live. Less people means lower pressure to find new ways of getting resources - if there i…

There is this dude that is constantly pulling money out of the economy, leaving less for everyone else. Stop him (the rent seeking) and he won't bother you anymore.

Re: Basement Fertility

#214

Post by moonchrome »

maxerickson wrote: post #141
moonchrome wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone survives or has children - which is why I said 2-3 - it has to be above 2 for replacement, it's not a new concept - lookup replacement fertility rate

Above replacement is exponential growth.

But 2 is below replacement rate

Re: Basement Fertility

#215

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

gspr wrote: post #209
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but no. The well regulated rental market in Germany has had the consequence of a housing unit shortage. Try renting anything in well regulated Berlin. It's like trying to find an PS5/ RTX 3080 during the scalpocalipse. Similar in well regulated Stockholm. Renting is very popular in Germany because buying is out of reach for most due to how expensive it is, therefore those who aren't well off have no other choi…

Sorry, I definitely did not mean regulated in the sense of "rent control". I meant regulated in the sense of "guaranteeing certain rights for the tenants". I'm aware of the massive housing squeeze in big German cities, and you make a great point — I just wanted to underscore that it's not at heart a rent v buy issue.

Agreed. Fair point.

Re: Basement Fertility

#216

Post by imtringued »

xnx wrote: post #13
mikkergp wrote: post #11

Is there a version of economic thought that doesn't necessitate constant population growth? Why is low fertility rate seen as a bad thing? Often engineering is argued in terms of tradeoffs or meeting certain requirements. Rather than follow economic theories that depend on growth, can we develop economic theories that adapt to the trends of the population rather than the other way around(Musks' need for cheap labor n…

I'd love an economic system that championed efficiency over growth.

Freiwirtschaft...

Re: Basement Fertility

#217

Post by imtringued »

missedthecue wrote: post #17
mikkergp wrote: post #11

Is there a version of economic thought that doesn't necessitate constant population growth? Why is low fertility rate seen as a bad thing? Often engineering is argued in terms of tradeoffs or meeting certain requirements. Rather than follow economic theories that depend on growth, can we develop economic theories that adapt to the trends of the population rather than the other way around(Musks' need for cheap labor n…

Capitalism doesn't require for constant population growth. But public pension schemes do. And there are geopolitical advantages to being bigger than your foes. Look at Japan. Japan's population has been on the decline for about 1.5 generations. They still get as much food, shelter, and entertainment as any other developed economy. They have hobbies, travel, discretionary income... The worries there aren't about capit…

They have zero percent interest rates much longer than anyone else. If anything they are pretty much as close to ending capitalism as it gets.

Re: Basement Fertility

#218

Post by nisegami »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #189
gspr wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were a woman, there is no way I would entertain the idea of having kids without my name on the title or lease of the house. There's lots of prosperous countries where renting is very common, is well-regulated, and not some great risk (Germany and Switzerland spring to mind). I, too, live in a country where owning is the norm. That turns the rental market into (mostly) shabby flats for the very lowest income br…

Sorry, but no. The well regulated rental market in Germany has had the consequence of a housing unit shortage. Try renting anything in well regulated Berlin. It's like trying to find an PS5/ RTX 3080 during the scalpocalipse. Similar in well regulated Stockholm. Renting is very popular in Germany because buying is out of reach for most due to how expensive it is, therefore those who aren't well off have no other choi…

Maybe we just shouldn't be living that long?

Re: Basement Fertility

#219

Post by Jolter »

2000UltraDeluxe wrote: post #200
Jolter wrote: post #52

These two maps, taken in conjunction, do not provide a good argument for housing deregulation. Even if we accept that the maps correlate quite well (and ignore whether there is any causal link), there is an assumption that the author is not stating plainly: that housing deregulation leads to young people being able to move out of their parent’s basement. Look at the Scandinavian, very deep green countries at the top…

Renting an apartment in Stockholm requires being on a waiting list for years, or paying private landlords under the table in order to be allowed to rent. I hear it's not as bad in Gothenburg and Malmö, though. Buying is still possible, but the prices are extremely inflated due to the Swedish habit of simply not paying of their mortages and just pay the interest. Last time I heard, the Stockholm housing bubble is abou…

These things are also true. It is very very hard to find a rental flat in Stockholm. Slightly easier in Gothenburg, and easier still, the smaller and less attractive the town you choose.

Some claim this shortage is due to over-regulation of the housing market, others claim that it's due to other causes. Usually, this is split down ideological lines, where the left is for keeping the regulated rents, and the right are for introducing "market based rents".

But this is all irrelevant, because despite this well-documented housing shortage in Stockholm, and despite having a rent-controlled market and a huge presumed housing bubble, for some reason Sweden ranks as having only 4.1% basement dwellers (see OP).

So, explain again how this article on "Basement Fertility" is making a case for housing market deregulation?

Re: Basement Fertility

#220

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

nisegami wrote: post #218
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but no. The well regulated rental market in Germany has had the consequence of a housing unit shortage. Try renting anything in well regulated Berlin. It's like trying to find an PS5/ RTX 3080 during the scalpocalipse. Similar in well regulated Stockholm. Renting is very popular in Germany because buying is out of reach for most due to how expensive it is, therefore those who aren't well off have no other choi…

Maybe we just shouldn't be living that long?

Sure, even my GP said people are living way beyond their sell by date, putting huge pressure on the healthcare and social system, but what do you suggest we do? Take pensioners behind the block and pop a cap in their heads like cattle?

Back in the days, we used to have a once in a century virus/pandemic/plague that would "thin the heard", but now we got really good at creating effective vaccines and prioritizing distributing them at those old and vulnerable, to prevent nature from running its course, so we're back to square one.

So what do we do? Provide modern medicine only to able bodied adults and deprive the elderly once they reach their sell by date?

Post reply on HN