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Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

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Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#231

Post by zeven7 »

joseph8th wrote: post #204
zeven7 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fascinated that some kind of place like this existed. I've only lived in large cities and the picture I've gotten of small towns from trips and media hasn't prepared me for the idea of a whole community that collectively buys into a get rich quick scheme.

Oh boy, have I got a story for you. Around 1999, my hometown (pop. ~600) fell for a conman. Like, the actual Town government, and almost everyone in it. Pudgy, balding, middle-aged white dude breezed into town and seduced the owner of one of the motels. She kicks her husband out and starts taking Conman to town board meetings, etc. Eventually divorced husband. Guy claims to be Hollywood connected, a wealthy promoter…

Wild.

> pays to fly this star in on a private jet, sets up a huge stage for her, and all like 50 of us that show up get a private concert. It sucked.

The concert actually happened? That's the craziest part of all of it.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#232

Post by acdha »

zeven7 wrote: post #96
cjbgkagh wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s essentially it, a small town where everyone knew each other and all hung out in the same bars. I didn’t pay attention to which one it was, I do remember hearing crazy interest, like >40%. I think you also got a cut from new entrants as well, so it reeked of pyramid + ponzi.

I'm fascinated that some kind of place like this existed. I've only lived in large cities and the picture I've gotten of small towns from trips and media hasn't prepared me for the idea of a whole community that collectively buys into a get rich quick scheme.

This is especially common in churches because in addition to having an existing trust relationship, in many more conservative denominations you also have a large population of women who are expected to be mothers first and working second but are also expected to be the frugal wife running the household like a small business (there are several scriptures like Proverbs 31 which mention this in contexts which make more sense if your household is a small farm & you're selling your surplus). Those pitches explicitly borrow from that tradition and they always refer to it as being a small business owner, which sounds a lot better than working part-time at Starbucks even if the latter tends to pay considerably better, and that's also appealing to the people who see working outside the home as being out in the world exposed to all kinds of dangers and temptations since you can tell yourself that you'll mostly sell to people you already know.

What tends to happen is that the first person who picks up some new scam does fairly well because there's no exact competition for whatever they're selling. They tell their friends, who are likely to join because they made an enviable amount of money, but returns drop off rapidly because most of the people who want whatever that company is selling already bought it from the first person (whose social network overlaps considerably) and at some point most of the money is coming from the people buying the initial inventory which will mostly sit in their garage.

The social dynamic also means that _nobody_ will ever admit that they lost money or made the equivalent of $2/hour even as they're giving away that unsold merchandise at baby showers for the next 5 years.

Cryptocurrencies have largely been the brilliant idea of capturing this dynamic for a different demographic (libertarian men).

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#233

Post by randomhodler84 »

tablespoon wrote: post #216
randomhodler84 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, don’t short USDD (at least not yet). If Justin using His Excellencies personal wealth to bail out His Excellencies stablecoin sideproject, wait at least until the market cap goes beyond what he can bail out. It’s currently 3x over collateralized, you will lose.

> If Justin using His Excellencies personal wealth to bail out His Excellencies stablecoin sideproject What's with this "His Excellencies" stuff? Is it an obnoxious nickname, or is this backed by some monarch or gulf sovereign wealth fund or something?

His full diplomatic title is His Excellency Justin Yuchen Sun, Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization in Grenada.

It is correct to address him as His Excellency or HE. He also has diplomatic immunity.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#234

Post by acdha »

LatteLazy wrote: post #109
based69 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can borrow btc then use that btc to take 5x leveraged positions on btc. If number go up, you make billions. If number go down 20% you default on loan. Absolute scumbag behaviour of course.

I guess that makes more sense. But then you're only 4x exposed to BTC (god help you). Why not borrow USD and do the same and get 5x leverage What's that thing about if you owe the bank 10k you're in trouble, but if you owe them 10m they're in trouble? :)

I wonder whether it could be as simple as getting a loan in USD requiring stricter terms: he seems like the kind of guy who’d balk at doing more work to get less money, even if that’s ill-advised from a risk perspective.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#236

Post by henning »

randomhodler84 wrote: post #212
henning wrote: post #179

I'm sure the creditors will happily accept payment in Bitcoin in lieu of cash. it's dIgItAL gOlD except the digital gold can be copied and pasted to make a new kind of digital gold that is identical to the other gold, completely unlike actual physical gold.

21 million Bitcoin. 2.1 Quadrillion Satoshi. For all time. Unlike gold which can be mined in the trillions from asteroids. Your argument that Bitcoin is trivially copyable was /an/ argument in 2014. We are in a different place now.

> Unlike gold which can be mined in the trillions from asteroids.

Congratulations, this is the stupidest thing I've read on Hacker News. Asteroid mining is not feasible and may never be.

If an argument was valid in 2014 and the logic behind that argument has not changed, it remains valid. People are still making pointless coins and getting big-name social media personalities to promote them.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#237

Post by masswerk »

braingenious wrote: post #208
midislack wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are indeed hate groups, it's a hate symbol, thanks for playing!

What do they hate?

I guess, the Warsaw Pact – as Helmut Schmidt (German chancellor 1974 - 1982) had been a strong supporter of NATO's Pershing II rearmament?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Schmidt

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#238

Post by chrisco255 »

Barrera wrote: post #164

> Prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million. Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today’s prices. In other words, the $670 million that 3AC defaulted on was ~50:50 USDC…

3AC was active in alt coin trade. They definitely knew what they were doing, they have been trading crypto since 2012. They were probably temporarily shorting it on a rotation trade. They got blown out bad by the Luna debacle and then dragged down with it.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#239

Post by dillondoyle »

adam_arthur wrote: post #230
chasd00 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing about that is the Chinese government can just declare it’s no longer a problem and then it’s no longer a problem. Just like they can solve Covid outbreaks through starvation, separated families, and doors welded shut. When you’re free from morality or repercussions then all problems are easily solvable.

They can't really do that because Firm A may depend on Firm B's payment to stay afloat. So you can't just say Firm B doesn't have to pay A and all is well. Also if a Firm defaults on its debt obligations, nobody will choose to lend to that Firm in the future. Certainly it still may be possible to untangle the situation by shifting losses to those who can bear it (socialize them), but it's not as simple as you make it…

Many problems aside, they could just print or give money.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#240

Post by adam_arthur »

dillondoyle wrote: post #239
adam_arthur wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't really do that because Firm A may depend on Firm B's payment to stay afloat. So you can't just say Firm B doesn't have to pay A and all is well. Also if a Firm defaults on its debt obligations, nobody will choose to lend to that Firm in the future. Certainly it still may be possible to untangle the situation by shifting losses to those who can bear it (socialize them), but it's not as simple as you make it…

Many problems aside, they could just print or give money.

Yeah, check with South America on how that works out. It can be done to a certain extent, but obviously these aren't cost free solutions.
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