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Basement Fertility

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Re: Basement Fertility

#81
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Replacement >[...] is a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theory [...] Native Americans would disagree.

The "Great Replacement" theory originated in the 2010s and is specifically about white people being replaced (in case anyone was in any doubt, it's racist bullshit). It's a (bullshit paranoid) predictive theory about the modern day that has nothing to do with the historical genocide of Native Americans by white people.

There's nothing really inherently racist about it, or bullshit. Mass immigration is a serious subject matter, one that deserves scrutiny and ruthless questioning. Avoiding the questions by calling it racist doesn't make it go away.

It's been around for a lot longer than 2010. It has been a popular subject matter in Europe for decades [1]. I guess someone just decided to finally put a more official, catchy title to it and publish books. Does this particular author have a racist tone? Perhaps they do. But ask an average European citizen back in late 80s, 90s and they'd tell you what's up without skipping a beat. It's something you can see from a mile away. Pleading ignorance won't help.

[1] Your media won't tell you this, so don't be surprised. Talk to a handful of locals to get a sample for how people really feel about things. It's a much better barometer than getting your news from something like Voice of America.

Re: Basement Fertility

#82
post #67
post #52

These two maps, taken in conjunction, do not provide a good argument for housing deregulation. Even if we accept that the maps correlate quite well (and ignore whether there is any causal link), there is an assumption that the author is not stating plainly: that housing deregulation leads to young people being able to move out of their parent’s basement. Look at the Scandinavian, very deep green countries at the top…

Exactly living with your parents has more to do about culture and local customs.

This might be highly dependent on where you're at. I know many in Dublin who still live with their parents because there's nowhere available (everything's gone to short-term lets) at anything reasonably resembling a decent price.

Re: Basement Fertility

#83

After World War II a lot of public housing projects popped up, which were nice communities for working class families. Nowadays this is almost forgotten as public housing has been starved for decades, and is only thought of in most communities as synonymous with poverty and crime. This is the direction the United States went in but not all countries. Public housing funded as it was in the New Deal era can solve this…

It went this way in the US because the unique racial politics here. I've been listening to a podcast which touches on this: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/29/1095625161/coming-soon-code-s...

Re: Basement Fertility

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacement rate and “right” are not necessarily congruous. If you have the opinion that there are insufficient resources in the world to live the lifestyle you want for yourself or those you care about, you may think a lower fertility rate is more “right”. And if you think your tribe is in a competition for resources with all the other tribes, then you may want a higher fertility rate for your tribe and a lower one…

Any less than 2.1 and you have to have an uncomfortable conversation about which nation is going to be the sacrifice. Any more and you have to worry about overpopulation. That said, I'm of the opinion that we'll never really need to have any tough conversations about birth rates because they've fallen so drastically across the board. It seems that it will be enough to universally encourage higher birth rates in every…

I think there will be some interesting conversations, namely around women’s civil rights.

Incentivizing a woman to have a baby is extremely expensive, and I do not think any country has come up with an offer so attractive such that it causes birth rates to go up.

Which brings up 2 questions: how much does a society have to offer women, and would that society continue to be competitive on a global playing field relative to other countries that might go a different way, such as restricting women’s rights and getting birth rates up by removing women’s agency.

Re: Basement Fertility

#85

It feels like there's an implicit "More Kids Good" tone that pervades this. What's the "right" value for TFR? Why does it have to be higher? Why is it bad that it is lower in some places? The ecosystem we exist in / that sustains us surely has a carrying capacity.

China will depopulate >50% by 2100 (conservatively) and we’re still worrying about mid 20th century concepts like carrying capacities as if we aren’t a highly advanced (and depopulating) tool making species entirely capable of creating ecosystems wholesale and affecting said capacities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

Okay, and it's bad that china will depopulate? Won't every nation, eventually? Are you making like a "suffering / loss of life is bad" argument? It's hard to disagree with that, if you are. (I certainly don't.)

I think you're deriding my use of "Carrying capacity" as an archaic concept, but your retort is that we're "creating ecosystems."

But, every organism within an ecosystem "creates" it just by existing as part of it, so I'm assuming you mean "heavily modifying it to suit our species' need for insatiable growth."

Taking this from that perspective, the 20th century agricultural explosion (that you link to ) is a prime example of how we've hijacked systems far beyond their natural limits, to largely deleterious effect.

That wikipedia article even enumerates some of these: biodiversity loss, GHG emissions, etc. There are many examples elsewhere [0].

Sure, there's a lot more food, and that's good for population health and well-being. But that "good" assumes that we've decided that large, consistent growth rates are "good."

[0]:https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=imp...

Re: Basement Fertility

#86
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less people isn't a bad thing as long as the demographic distribution within the smaller population is healthy- meaning it is shaped like a pyramid, a wide base of young and working age people and smaller numbers of old people non-working people on the top. The problem for many first world countries today is that their populations are shaped like upside down pyramids- many old people and people nearing retirement age…

The wide base of young people in the healthy pyramid will eventually grow old. Since it was wide, it means to keep the pyramid healthy, multiples of young people would need to be added. Whom will also grow old, needing even more young people.

Or most people need to die before they get old.

Re: Basement Fertility

#87
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "Great Replacement" theory originated in the 2010s and is specifically about white people being replaced (in case anyone was in any doubt, it's racist bullshit). It's a (bullshit paranoid) predictive theory about the modern day that has nothing to do with the historical genocide of Native Americans by white people.

There's nothing really inherently racist about it, or bullshit. Mass immigration is a serious subject matter, one that deserves scrutiny and ruthless questioning. Avoiding the questions by calling it racist doesn't make it go away. It's been around for a lot longer than 2010. It has been a popular subject matter in Europe for decades [1]. I guess someone just decided to finally put a more official, catchy title to it…

> There's nothing really inherently racist about it, or bullshit.

It's the same argument wielded to discriminate against immigrants. It was used against the Irish, Italians, and Polish in NY City to name a few. Each group was "ruining America". It takes 3 generations to assimilate, but everyone anti-immigration wants them to "speak American" in one generation.

Re: Basement Fertility

#88

It feels like there's an implicit "More Kids Good" tone that pervades this. What's the "right" value for TFR? Why does it have to be higher? Why is it bad that it is lower in some places? The ecosystem we exist in / that sustains us surely has a carrying capacity.

If you trace this thread backwards to its root (by essentially responding to every answer with "so what?"), you end up with the question "would it a 'bad thing' if humanity were to become extinct?"

Anecdotally, the vast majority of people I've met - from all walks of life and religious/political leanings - will answer this question with an unthinking "yes, of course that's bad".

I've been curious lately why this is. From the standpoint of Christianity, isn't the end goal rapture followed by total extinction anyway? From the standpoint of agnosticism/atheism, wouldn't an extinction mean the end of human suffering?

Why are we as a species so afraid of not being able to sustain ourselves through a constant churning of new births? Is it just our monkey brain ultimately calling the shots?

Re: Basement Fertility

#89

Is there a version of economic thought that doesn't necessitate constant population growth? Why is low fertility rate seen as a bad thing? Often engineering is argued in terms of tradeoffs or meeting certain requirements. Rather than follow economic theories that depend on growth, can we develop economic theories that adapt to the trends of the population rather than the other way around(Musks' need for cheap labor n…

The US, and similarly many other western countries, hasn't been at the replacement fertility rate since ~1970 [1]. Relative to the years previous, its been pretty stable, but still not at the replacement rate: around 1.8, versus 2.1-2.2.

That's 50 years; a decent chunk of time.

By the way; its important to note that the replacement fertility rate changes over time. Today, in the US, infant mortality rates are half that in 1970 and prior, in basically every category. Ideally, obviously, the replacement rate will approach 2.0.

Is there a version of economic thought that doesn't necessitate constant population growth? How about the one we're living? You can make the argument that the world is falling apart, or the economy, or we're at the end of a totally normal 80-100 year economic cycle, or maybe everything is fine, that's all supposition. What's real is; we're still going.

The short answer to your question is: historically: No. Empires fall when population growth stalls. When empires fall, a LOT of people die, and a lot more suffer. The dream of "isolated sustainable communes" doesn't work at scale. If your argument is some variation of: the human population shouldn't be at scale; then feel free to remove yourself from the equation as a start down that path, but realistically, we're all here, we have the system we have.

However, I tend to believe that the better argument is: we found that version of economic thought which can work in the face of stagnating population growth. Its the one we have; it does work, not perfectly, in fact quite poorly, but we'll never know how bad the alternate realities are. In effect, MMT.

Its extremely and critically important to recognize that technology has jumped more in the last thirty years than in the thousands of years prior. Our relationship to it, as individuals and as a society, is still evolving, and that evolution is happening in the face of declining western populations. Technology amplifies individual productivity; so why are we all still working 40 hour weeks? Momentum primarily, but more specifically: our population only recently started plateauing. We needed technology to keep up; its the only way. But as population plateaus, technology will naturally take over more. Its not just "fewer people can do more"; it goes from "fewer people can do more for more people" to "fewer people can do more for fewer people", which naturally means they have to do less.

MMT plays into that because: technology is expensive. If we're entering a world where our options are: build a $50B water barrier around Miami or let the city drown, we can't afford to worry about the status of our gold reserves, or whether the blockchain is up today. We wouldn't have the money; we'd chose not to build it; billions of dollars in infrastructure, land, and people would be destroyed; and the economy would be worse off, not better, than if we had just said "blank check do it" and then dealt with the ramifications of that decision tomorrow.

That doesn't mean there won't be ramifications. There always are in complex systems. But people get so focused on the reality we're living, to say "if only we'd have stuck to the way we used to do it", without recognizing that its just as possible you, and all your friends, and all your friends' friends, would not be alive if we had stuck to that old system.

Here's the biggest kink though; generally, well-implemented MMT (which much like well-implemented communism, hasn't been done, but has been written about to great lengths) requires close coordination between monetary and legislative policy; something our government is engineered to not do. We're seeing the impacts of this miscoordination now; there's a strong argument that the biggest source of inflation today has less to with money printing or interest rates, and more to do with core productivity in the sectors experiencing that inflation (energy: oil processing, housing: home building, public transit construction, etc). Core productivity (more factories, more construction, automation, etc) can oftentimes be solved with cheap, targeted money; but the Fed is currently engaged in a show of raising interest rates. Its the one lever they have; every problem is a screw, they have their directive: a hammer. I don't feel this is doom and gloom, today; a lot of the issues we're experiencing are, truly, just the delayed echoes of COVID which will die out, raising interest rates will legitimately help some sources of inflation, and the legislature has demonstrated interest in providing cheap money for productivity improvements (build back better). But, its still how the Fed operates; they have their doctrine and their lever, and its easy to imagine a future where more coordination is necessary to push through massive spending in response to major issues like the climate crisis, declining water supplies, etc, without either succumbing to the crisis, or creating a new economic crisis.

[1] https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

Re: Basement Fertility

#90
On Twitter, Elon Musk has been posting a lot about how people should have more children. I'm mentioning it not because of him, instead because it offers insight into a common misconception.

Those threads show thousands and thousands of replies by young people about how they can barely take care of themselves. High cost of living, no access to housing, unaffordable healthcare, etc.

What is not intuitive is that this reasoning, even though it feels so right and just, is entirely wrong. If you were to be wealthier, you'd not have more children. Add even more wealth and you'd have even fewer, not more. The wealthier people are, the less children they have on average.

The other insight you'll get is the gloomy image people have of the future. This really needs work. As humanity we need to have a better story than "it's all downhill from here".

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