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Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

uth.edu

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Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#41

Post by srvmshr »

lukev wrote: post #29
srvmshr wrote: post #20

At some point we (researchers & scientists) should draw the line between correlation & causation. That there is 40% less incidence in flu vaccinated patients is established by observation, but is it due to flu vaccine by itself or factors which surrounds itself in people more prone to flu or who are medically more conscious? (edit: think of analysis of variance tests among identifiable medical & socioeconomic variabl…

At some point we (commenters on hacker news) should stop reflexively typing this in response to every study without reading the paper. From the abstract: > Propensity-score matching (PSM) was used to create flu-vaccinated and flu-unvaccinated cohorts with similar baseline demographics, medication usage, and comorbidities. If you want to argue that the authors did a bad job at this, for some reason, that would be a re…

I am not an expert at this, though I have taken few credits of Biostatistics. I would be more interested if swapping the variables also gave significance in tests. Did the Alzheimer's cohort also have a higher incidence of flu related comorbidities? I understand this is difficult - but this is why ANOVA tests also are extensively used to show variable dependence or report the degree of dependence. It is unclear from their findings. Without that we are probably looking at some positive correlation without investigating the causation.

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#42

Post by i_love_limes »

blagie wrote: post #36
i_love_limes wrote: post #26

Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…

The scientists said it was causation. "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of this protective effect increased with the number of years that a person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently received the flu vaccine every year" Yes, that's in a…

In the interview he seems to be more loose with his words, but that also doesn't say causation. In the paper the conclusion is "This study demonstrates that influenza vaccination is associated with reduced AD risk in a nationwide sample of US adults aged 65 and older."

That is distinctly not causal.

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#43

Post by [deleted] »

itsoktocry wrote: post #32
i_love_limes wrote: post #26

Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…

> There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. Complaining about correlation not being causation is the perfect theme for the midwit meme. It's one of my pet peeves.

[deleted]

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#44

Post by amacneil »

i_love_limes wrote: post #26

Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…

If they only intend to claim correlation, avoiding the word "linked" in the announcement would probably help with general public interpretation.

I feel like in English, "linked" usually implies some sort of potential causation, not just a general relationship. For example: "boyfriend linked to murder case".

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#45

Post by xupybd »

i_love_limes wrote: post #42
blagie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists said it was causation. "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of this protective effect increased with the number of years that a person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently received the flu vaccine every year" Yes, that's in a…

In the interview he seems to be more loose with his words, but that also doesn't say causation. In the paper the conclusion is "This study demonstrates that influenza vaccination is associated with reduced AD risk in a nationwide sample of US adults aged 65 and older." That is distinctly not causal.

Sitting down and talking it's often hard to be as precise as you would like to be. Especially when you don't have time to reflect on the implications of what you've just said.

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#47

Post by willcipriano »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10
willcipriano wrote: post #6

People who get yearly flu vaccines probably go to the doctor more regularly than those who do not. I would expect that people who more regularly go to the doctor are also more concerned about their health. I'd expect people who are concerned with their health to behave in ways that limit disease. Without a proposed method of action, I suspect this is just noise.

The researchers controlled for "number of routine well visits during the look-back period, and total number of health care encounters during the look-back period (as a proxy for overall healthcare utilization rate)" [1]. [1] https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-...

Thank you for the link. That's a interesting population, older people who regularly receive medical care but refuse flu vaccines. I wonder if that is representative of the general population.

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#48

Post by nazka »

lukev wrote: post #29
srvmshr wrote: post #20

At some point we (researchers & scientists) should draw the line between correlation & causation. That there is 40% less incidence in flu vaccinated patients is established by observation, but is it due to flu vaccine by itself or factors which surrounds itself in people more prone to flu or who are medically more conscious? (edit: think of analysis of variance tests among identifiable medical & socioeconomic variabl…

At some point we (commenters on hacker news) should stop reflexively typing this in response to every study without reading the paper. From the abstract: > Propensity-score matching (PSM) was used to create flu-vaccinated and flu-unvaccinated cohorts with similar baseline demographics, medication usage, and comorbidities. If you want to argue that the authors did a bad job at this, for some reason, that would be a re…

But virtual HN karma points are so juicy! /s

Sometimes HN can do this or turn simple topics into some crazy meta stuff… I’m telling you so many times some comments look like what I will find in a parody of HN and/or bring no real value to the discussion but are so articulated and counter arguing and expanding and what not. Heck half of the times those comments start a new paragraph mid comment with « Heck… ». And they all look the same. /renting

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#49

Post by [deleted] »

itsoktocry wrote: post #39
blagie wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists said it was causation. "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of this protective effect increased with the number of years that a person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently received the flu vaccine every year" Yes, that's in a…

> The scientists said it was causation. Interesting. I don't read that as claiming causation, I read that as describing the correlation. You're right though, it's confusing messaging, regardless.

[deleted]

Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease

#50

Post by wonderwonder »

seydor wrote: post #27
wonderwonder wrote: post #5

Never gotten the flu vaccine before. Biggest fear in life is alzheimers. Guess I will get the flu vaccine annually going forward.

Participants in the study were on average 75 years old.

My family has an unfortunate history of not living past 65, so may as well start now :)
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