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Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
31–40 of 159 posts
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#32Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…
>There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train.
Complaining about correlation not being causation is the perfect theme for the midwit meme. It's one of my pet peeves.
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#33I posted this exact link two days ago. What gives?
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#34Never gotten the flu vaccine before. Biggest fear in life is alzheimers. Guess I will get the flu vaccine annually going forward.
Worth getting anyway -- the flu is pretty miserable.
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#35Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…
I do not remember where I read it (probably xkcd) but it was that correlation is not casuation, though the numbers are doing big winks to you (or something like that)
As a physicist who had to endure helping biologists with statistics and cooling down their enthusiasm: it make sense to have a deeper thought about the experiment.
As parent wrote, there may be various reasons for the correlations, sometimes you have random stuff, sometimes indirect stuff and in others extraordinary stuff. Many discoveries (especially older ones) fall into the last category.
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#36Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…
The scientists said it was causation.
"We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of
developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of
this protective effect increased with the number of years that a
person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate
of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently
received the flu vaccine every year"
(As a footnote, personally, I do believe it is causation; I believe that as with COVID and EB, we've dramatically underestimated the long-term impact of many viral infections. But that's just a personal belief.)
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#37Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#38The words "linked to" or "associated with" are tells that no real causality has been established – no matter how casually, or sloppily, causality is implied by the paper or breezy PR summaries.
Maybe, early pre-diagnosis aspects of eventual Alzheimer's (such as undiagnosed mild cognitive impairments) makes people less interested in, and diligent in pursuing, flu vaccinations. (In other words: the causality goes the other way.)
But also, people with active family/social lives are both more likely to be reminded to get a flu vaccine, and less likely to develop Alzheimer's.
And further: more conscientious people seek out vaccines. More conscientious people get Alzheimer's at a much lower rate. For example, this study - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/... – suggests those in the 90th percentile of conscientiousness have 89% lower rates of Alzheimer's diagnoses than those in the 10th percentile of conscientiousness.
While a mechanism from vax-induced immunity, and/or fewer actual infections, to less dementia is plausible, these other well-known correlates/confounders seem a likely explanation for these results, until/unless controlled-for.
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#39Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…
The scientists said it was causation. "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of this protective effect increased with the number of years that a person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently received the flu vaccine every year" Yes, that's in a…
>The scientists said it was causation.
Interesting. I don't read that as claiming causation, I read that as describing the correlation.
You're right though, it's confusing messaging, regardless.
Re: Flu vaccination linked to 40% reduced risk of Alzheimer’s disease
#40Epidemiologist in training here... There are quite a few comments in this thread already jumping on the 'correlation != causation' train. While that is true, I'd like to clarify a couple things: 1. The journal article didn't suggest it was causal. But such a correlation with such a large population warrants publication and further research into causation. 2. literally the first thing that any epidemiologist would con…
The scientists said it was causation. "We found that flu vaccination in older adults reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease for several years. The strength of this protective effect increased with the number of years that a person received an annual flu vaccine – in other words, the rate of developing Alzheimer’s was lowest among those who consistently received the flu vaccine every year" Yes, that's in a…
I've always read "protective effect" to be making a predictive statement and not a causal one.