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Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

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131–140 of 295 posts

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It happens all the time but often the community and the physical community don't overlap, but check out /r/MLM or other similar subreddits and there's whole groups of scammers who target particular groups (church, social, retired, veterans, etc) with particular pitches designed for that group. Because if some rando tells you to join Amway or invest in AmCOIN™ you will tell them to get bent, but if it's a trusted frie…

In the smallest version of this... My weekly poker group talks about stocks and crypto often. It's a mix of guys who work in tech and engineering and a handful who just want to get rich quick. We've all bought a few yolo stocks and coins together and 100% of the time the investments have gone to zero or close to it. Thankfully no one in the group is dumb enough to go all in on this hyper risky investments but I can s…

The danger is when they don't go to zero, and you suddenly thing you're stock picking geniuses - or you then decide to put it all in on the next one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beardstown_Ladies

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#133
post #23

I really don’t understand the business model of making massive fiat loans to “firms” to buy bitcoin. If crypto goes up, you get a small amount of interest. If crypto goes down, you lose everything. What? Lol. Just spend a fraction of the sum on bitcoin and do something safe with the rest. What was the plan? Edit: I guess when someone has “20 billion dollars” a 700mm loan doesn’t seem like a big risk.

> Just spend a fraction of the sum on bitcoin and do something safe with the rest. What was the plan?

On the other hand, I can see investing in firms that then take out huge loans to buy crypto. The math reverses itself. Crypto goes up, and you make far more than buying BTC without leverage. Crypto goes down and you lose your entire investment, but are limited to that (as opposed to taking out the loans yourself).

I suppose if they felt the loans were collateralized by something that was more solid than crypto, that makes sense. Like, yes I'll loan you money backed your MSFT shares or whatever, and you can spend it on crypto or whatever.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#134
post #122
post #64

Without crypto what will be the next delusional get rich quick scheme people will cling to?

What if crypto (in whatever form) is the ultimate get rich quick scam/scheme and there is always a baseline number of people willing to dump their money into it? Can an asset class be built on top of a seemingly endless hope of people hoping to get rich quick? Take out the asset class part, and it sounds a lot like a lottery, which is just a regulated get rich scheme (where most participants lose monetarily, but get…

The downside with the lottery is that it's state controlled; if a group of talented engineers finds a way to play to extract positive expected value from other bettors, stakeholders in the government will call this outcome unfair and shut it down ( https://www.mass.gov/doc/letter-to-state-treasurer-steven-gr... ). Even if, on average, money goes from gamblers to social good, people will complain that sophisticated bettors are extracting an "unfair" profit.

By contrast, the crypto markets provide an efficient funnel from low-information gamblers to sophisticated engineers. As long as a fair chunk of the profits are channeled to effective altruism causes (which I think is the status quo?) it's a good deal.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't necessarily true. A lot of people have held crypto since you could purchase it for single digit American dollars because they believe in the fundamental tenants of crypto - permissionless world financial exchange where the levers and dials of the economic systems are not controlled by world governments.

It is probably true that 99.9% of people with crypto use it as a speculative investment. The remaining 0.1% true crypto idealist may exist, but I have never met one. So it makes the previous statement very much mostly true. This type of disingenuous argument is why some of us rejoice at the crypto meltdown.

Pleased to meet you jpambrun!

I am one of those 0.1% idealists.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the smallest version of this... My weekly poker group talks about stocks and crypto often. It's a mix of guys who work in tech and engineering and a handful who just want to get rich quick. We've all bought a few yolo stocks and coins together and 100% of the time the investments have gone to zero or close to it. Thankfully no one in the group is dumb enough to go all in on this hyper risky investments but I can s…

The danger is when they don't go to zero, and you suddenly thing you're stock picking geniuses - or you then decide to put it all in on the next one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beardstown_Ladies

Amusing quote from that page: “This revelation led to a class action lawsuit against publisher Hyperion, a division of The Walt Disney Company, which settled the case by offering to swap the Beardstown Ladies books for other Hyperion books.”

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#137
post #63
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After looking at it for a moment, it's equally delusional as /r/cryptocurrency. I'm enjoying the meltdown because it flushed out those who believed in nonsense like 'This isn't even close to what will be the all time high' [0] 'Doge to $1 by September 2021' [1], etc. Where are they now? I won't be surprised to see Bitcoin go lower than $10K. This is before regulations and the Tether scam collapsing. [0] https://news.…

> After looking at it for a moment, it's equally delusional as /r/cryptocurrency. There can be some serious discussion there but it's first and foremost a joke subreddit. Without knowing what you're labeling delusional, there's a good chance it's meant to be taken with a sense of irony.

A joke sub wouldn't have a detailed guide for how to productively disagree with its followers:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/p8uv0h/helpful_gu...

Be careful not to get snared by Poe's Law.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#138
post #30

> As of Friday, Voyager said it had approximately $137 million in U.S. dollars and owned crypto assets. > Last week, Alameda (FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s quantitative trading firm) committed $500 million in financing to Voyager Digital, a crypto brokerage. Voyager has already pulled $75 million from that line of credit. Am I misunderstanding something, or: what kind of mismanagement could possibly lead to loans b…

I think it’s a strange part of human psychology to ignore objective reality and double down to complete ruin. It seems remarkably common and with corporate power being so concentrated at the top it seems rather easy for these situations to happen.

Yes, it’s the throwing good money after bad problem. I think there’s a real name for it, “sunk cost” fallacy maybe?

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#139
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same with most company shares

You are wrong. No value can be added to crypto except through fiat deposit. Publicly traded companies create value by their activity. For example, if I own a share of AT&T, the value of that share goes up if AT&T runs a successful marketing campaign to get new users to sign up. Crypto has no utility and no underlying value.

Not quite! Shares of AT&T go up because people spend fiat on buying them. The activity makes it a more attractive buy, but unless the company buys back it’s own shares they don’t go up when they make money. It’s not magic, it’s a market like anything else.

Note: AT&T is a dividend share, so it has yield. Cryptocurrencies generally don’t, they are more like tech stocks. Amazon shares don’t go up when Amazon makes money (unless they spend earnings on stock), or the market buys more Amazon stock.

Re: Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670M

#140

I always have mixed feelings when someone is warned about the riskiness / foolishness / stupidity of a course of action, and then suffers for it. On the one hand, there's a certain satisfaction or Schadenfreude in the sense of vindication. And it's pleasant to feel like my own wisdom or self-control has been validated. OTOH, I know that everyone has limited wisdom / self-control / intelligence, including me. So it se…

A fool and their money are soon parted. The real problem is that swindlers have made a huge amount of money and can use that money to corrupt politicians so it affects the rest of us. It’s not just the extra tax of having to care for the newly impoverished. My former local community went all in on a bitcoin scam, they made commissions on new entrants so I never heard the end of it. I only talked about it when asked b…

UK is talking about backstopping the stable coins is an example of influence. I assume they are referring to Tether which hasn't completed an audit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/31/uk-plans-new-safeguards-for-...

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