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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

gcaptain.com

461–470 of 483 posts

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Biden made the Taliban conquer Afghanistan” is as believable as “Biden made Putin invade Ukraine”.

Would you believe that the US policy of continually expanding NATO, combined with a military coup of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014 are more to blame for Putin attacking Ukraine? I wouldn't blame Biden. I'd blame Clinton, Bush, and Obama. But hey, you weren't actually asking to be informed about anything that wasn't CIA approved corporate news talking points. You just wanted a pithy straw man…

> democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014

that government not so democratically changed constitution, and next elections wouldn't be democratic, that's why people raised up

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And who is ascendant? China, who, oops, was overcounting their population by 100 million and now realize they have reached/passed the peak working population? Europe, who is completely dependant on the USA to maintain a unipolar world that they then take advantage of? Are you an 80s kid like me, and Japan and Russia are going to eat our lunch any day now? Maybe Dubai with their wanna be Vegas financial center in the…

> Europe, who is completely dependant on the USA to maintain a unipolar world that they then take advantage of? ....that's not how NATO works. God, I wish Trump's lies didn't have so much staying power. https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+nato+funding+fact+chec...

Did I say anything about NATO? How many bilateral deals does the USA have with Europe, where only the USA keeps their side? Every industry I have been in that is supposed to have 'open' trade has had artificial barriers erected on the European side, barriers not allowed by treaty. And when we tried to get the relevant USA agency to require Europe to follow the treaty we were seldom supported. German companies can bribe to get contracts in foreign countries, USA companies (rightly) can not. That puts us at a huge disadvantage. Dude, stop with Trump, and try to understand how Trump came to exist, and why 'lies' have so much staying power. Or just feel smug. Start holding Europe accountable. Who creates and keeps structures beneficial to Europe operating around the world? Who keeps safe open shipping lanes? International dispute resolution that allows international diplomacy to have enough faith in rules to function? A stable enough reserve currency to make long term deals feasible? There is so much 'scaffolding' that is there thanks to the USA the we get zero credit for. But keep demeaning our contribution. Keep making it about Trump instead of maybe addressing American's frustrations (resentments) with Europe and the worlds relationship with us that allowed Trump to happen, that will make the world better. Instead of telling me my frustration doesn't exist (Trump lies) maybe try to understand WHY those lies have staying power, why Trump happened in the first place. Stop bribing and encourage corruption, start paying (in diplomatic works, in laying 'Western' ideal foundations, and in just sticking to your word, whether that be military commitments or open trade deals) your fair share to the world order and be a partner. Try to understand WHY the average American is frustrated enough that we bought those lies. Or yeah, go after the symptom, not the disease, and enjoy the next iteration of a 'Trump' figure before the decade is out.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taxes are a relic of the long-gone physical money era. Vulgar taxation is a legacy technology that provides more waste than utility in the 21st century. It isn't often I see really novel ideas on hacker news, but this is an interesting take. Will need to think about it more but definitely interesting to think about the best means of providing public goods etc and if the system we have does this.

Taxation in the fiat CB/MMT era stops being a means to fill public coffers and becomes primarily a means to artificially suppress demand. You tax someone not to raise your funds, but to decrease their spending power. If you need to fill the public coffers, just ask the CB! You can then use taxation to mitigate the inflationary pressure of doing that. But generally taxation becomes a bandaid for poor economics, and in…

You are describing mmt which has been thoroughly rebuffed by mainstream economists. https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxation in the fiat CB/MMT era stops being a means to fill public coffers and becomes primarily a means to artificially suppress demand. You tax someone not to raise your funds, but to decrease their spending power. If you need to fill the public coffers, just ask the CB! You can then use taxation to mitigate the inflationary pressure of doing that. But generally taxation becomes a bandaid for poor economics, and in…

You are describing mmt which has been thoroughly rebuffed by mainstream economists. https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/modern-monetary-theory/

Oh no, not the Mainstream Economists. Meanwhile, the USG is busy increasing their deficit and not taxing megacorps while trying to tackle inflation.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#465
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The success of the US Navy in the past was due to constant training and the empowerment of the officer corps at the junior ranks, and billions in cash thrown at tech and equipment. If China can afford to train well, has decent technology that’s reliable, and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks, then I assume they are on the way to overtaking the US Navy in ability as the USN wanes due to lack o…

The US Navy has a lot of problems.[1] The big one is that they haven't fought a naval battle in decades. The US Army, Air Force, and USMC have been involved in too many wars in recent decades. For better or worse, they have a lot of people who have been at the sharp end. The Navy, not so much. It's beginning to look like warships will not be able to operate anywhere near a hostile shore in future. Truck-mounted syste…

Yea, I was in the pre-com unit for the first LCS ship and it was an absolute shit-show at the builders constantly. The real problem isn't that the Navy can't fight battles, it's that they can't even perform basic navigation now without subs and ships hitting everything in sight! There is a "brain drain" in the USN where the best leaders (officers or otherwise) are forced out by the toxic culture and all that remains are the dickheads who are barely competent.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#466
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One major differentiator between the US and China is that China traditionally / currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits). Whereas the US, for all of its flailing around politically, is perceived by many people in many countries as a good p…

I don’t think the US is easy to emigrate to for extended periods of time. I am put off by being tied to one employer in an at-will employment culture and needing that job to stay resident. Wikipedia says 188,100 new and initial H-1B visas were issued in 2019. So not a lot.

There's also L1 visas, O, etc.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in ma…

> moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme) > Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. That's culture and not an economic necessity. They also have a months holiday, maternity leave, and healthcare isn't 20% gdp. The French would say that Americans work a lot for little pay. > People cont…

> This is happening on every country on earth and for good reason. Cities are more efficient. (Growth Ponzi Scheme)

This is missing the point. It's like saying "the entire US population wants to move to Washington DC because that's where the jobs are".

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#468
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to muster. One child policy screwed them.

The success of the US Navy in the past was due to constant training and the empowerment of the officer corps at the junior ranks, and billions in cash thrown at tech and equipment. If China can afford to train well, has decent technology that’s reliable, and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks, then I assume they are on the way to overtaking the US Navy in ability as the USN wanes due to lack o…

and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks

They're not. China (and other dictatorships) do not want an empowered office corps at the junior ranks, and the CCP is very careful to keep senior PLA generals on a short leash.

The PLA Navy has not fired a shot in anger since the 1980s.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“We should content ourselves with being poorer than our parents were”. Fuck no.

Your bravado is charming, but since when is it up to you?

I always get to choose whether or not to be content.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? The US has Intel and AMD, and increasingly TSMC employees. China can’t replace those fabs, they don’t have the knowledge. The US is already building new fabs.

https://www.shiphub.co/worlds-top-semiconductors-producers/

Unfortunately, for understanding the root argument that isn’t super useful. China has lots of semiconductor manufacturing, but not with modern processes.
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