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“Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

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Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#151

Post by smoyer »

carlmr wrote: post #10

>They tend to make above-average use of coupons, and the coupons they use have above-average values. Isn't this kind of expected? Companies will give out coupons for products that don't sell so well. The higher the coupon value, the more desperate the company to get rid of this stock. So if these households like to coupon a lot, that means they accept less than ideal market fit for a price reduction.

Exactly, often those who are are looking for value are finding it in products that aren't economically viable - it's no surprise when these products are discontinued.

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#152

Post by giantg2 »

tempestn wrote: post #39
hinkley wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shoes are this way for a lot of people, in that some of us can keep a pair of shoes long enough that the next fashion cycle has happened and you can't find anything like that again. I got to the point where if I really liked a pair of shoes, I'd buy a second pair and throw them in the closet for nine months, and cross my fingers that I like the shoes in the second refresh more than I liked the ones in the first one.…

The shoes thing is so true. Especially runners, or any kind of athletic shoe really, where they feel the need to update not just the styling but the whole construction of the shoes every year. So when you need a replacement you basically have to start from scratch every time, because there's no guarantee even buying the new shoe in the same line will be a remotely similar experience.

I share the same sentiment. With all the replies you're getting, it seems like there could be a market for a solution. Not sure what that would be. Maybe a shoe finder app similar to ammoseek? Maybe a crowdsourced database of which current shoe model is rhe closest replacement to an outgoing one (like a dependency tree but for next closest shoe)?

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#153

Post by Gordonjcp »

Quequau wrote: post #3
ggm wrote: post #2

This.Happens.To.Me.All.The.Time. All.The.Time. that Amazing Neutrogena conditioner, which was really good and lasted a year? Gone: if it lasts a year, its too good. that original low-sugar chex? gone. we invented three new flavours. that jam? gone. butter? gone. that cut of meat? gone. those pens? I mean pentel pens. How can pentel can an entire line of really good, fine writer ballpens? Gone. Sorry dude, it was you…

This happens to me a lot too. The first one that really stuck in my mind is BetaMax and I suppose the collapse of Be, makers of the BeBox and BeOS, was the most discouraging... though I've seen a lot of other brands & companies I liked fail.

You might like Haiku, then.

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#154

Post by siva7 »

hinkley wrote: post #14
ggm wrote: post #2

This.Happens.To.Me.All.The.Time. All.The.Time. that Amazing Neutrogena conditioner, which was really good and lasted a year? Gone: if it lasts a year, its too good. that original low-sugar chex? gone. we invented three new flavours. that jam? gone. butter? gone. that cut of meat? gone. those pens? I mean pentel pens. How can pentel can an entire line of really good, fine writer ballpens? Gone. Sorry dude, it was you…

Shoes are this way for a lot of people, in that some of us can keep a pair of shoes long enough that the next fashion cycle has happened and you can't find anything like that again. I got to the point where if I really liked a pair of shoes, I'd buy a second pair and throw them in the closet for nine months, and cross my fingers that I like the shoes in the second refresh more than I liked the ones in the first one.…

tight jeans are out of fashion since at least 2 years...

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#155

Post by thechao »

bigDinosaur wrote: post #63
Smoosh wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In our household it's Fountain Mustard Sauce. Unexpectedly, it's the ideal sauce for home-made hamburgers. Allegedly still being made but never in stock anywhere. https://www.woolworths.com.au/shop/productdetails/37805/foun... Now our burgers are flavoured with a tinge of sadness and regret.

Why don't you make it yourself? The ingredients are even given right there. It'll take some experimenting but that's fine, you might even hit on better flavours.

What, exactly, is the ingredient "flavour"?

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#156

Post by lupire »

Cupertino95014 wrote: post #22

I remember reading, a long time ago, that some fashion trend-follower said that it was impossible to determine what was cool soon enough to profit from it. By the time you figure it out, it's gone. But it IS possible to figure out who is cool: you can find the people who regularly jump on trends before anyone else, and see what they buy. But this! This is almost as good: you can figure who is NOT cool.

That's because stuff isn't cool. Stuff becomes desirable when rich / beautiful people promote it. It's informal brand merch.

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#158

Post by twistedpair »

moomoo11 wrote: post #93
moffkalast wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> reliability, low cost, and easy to use Sounds about right. These days it's all about things lasting about 2 minutes so they're cheap to manufacture, as pricey as possible to seem designer or premium, and hardly any time spent on making good UX at all.

> good ux Worse is when some UX designers decide to improve a product that works well as it is only to make it worse and convoluted. This has been my experience more often than not, and my solution is to simply stop using such products. It sucks.

Change for the sake of change.

I'm often a power user. I know all the features and shortcuts of the tools I use. All too often, these get removed. I recall being on a feedback call with a UX study, and complaining about a feature I use, and many friend use, that was recently deleted from the product. "Oh, no one uses that" was the response from the UX/PM.

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#159

Post by LurkerAtTheGate »

thechao wrote: post #155
bigDinosaur wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you make it yourself? The ingredients are even given right there. It'll take some experimenting but that's fine, you might even hit on better flavours.

What, exactly, is the ingredient "flavour"?

MSG

Re: “Harbinger households” consistently buy products that get discontinued (2019)

#160

Post by evrydayhustling »

Found this link to the paper, since OP's SciHub link has rotted: https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/130136/The%20...

This is an interesting finding no matter what, but I think part of the splash comes from the idea that some people might be harbingers _independent of the rest of their identity_. Since it's not obvious that liking crystal pepsi and watermelon oreos are related, we can speculate that the people inherently like doomed products.

On my read, there's a more boring hypothesis that is equally supported: in any given period, some demographics (age, income, cultural -- all the stuff that we know gets clustered geographically) are more profitable than others. The products of the less profitable demographics get discontinued.

The main difference between this and the "harbinger" hypothesis is whether you can make surprising predictions. The paper doesn't really prove its predictive case because the calibration and holdout data come from different products in the same time period -- meaning that information about the time period leaks into the model that wouldn't be available if you were truly running a prediction.

If you feel like you yourself are a harbinger of product doom, maybe you're just a part of a group that isn't making enough money for sellers! Your choice whether to call that unfair or a victory :)

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