Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

gcaptain.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

301–310 of 483 posts

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#301

Post by nicodjimenez »

dstroot wrote: post #247
nicodjimenez wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the opinion you share is unpopular, it's because it's correct, and the truth is the enemy of the oligarchs that are scamming citizens in the US and the West in general. US is now a scam that exports inflation and crap 2nd rate weaponry. Scam economy, scam military industrial complex, scam military, scam president, scam everything. If you have a feeling the US is in decline, it's because it is. The situation is muc…

> … emigrate if they can. Where are you recommending they go?

Any sovereign nation would be better. Mexico, China, India, Hungary, Croatia, Singapore, Switzerland… USA is a zombie nation state that is more like a colony than a functional nation state.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#302

Post by DubiousPusher »

tablespoon wrote: post #281
DubiousPusher wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the European tradition, the number 1 thing government protects is private property. There's a reason that deeds are recorded with the county amd that you must pay tax on real estate and that these are fundamental things local government does in even in the most backwater province where they may not even have a library system.

>> That's all government has ever been and will always be: a protection racket. > In the European tradition, the number 1 thing government protects is private property. There's a reason that deeds are recorded with the county amd that you must pay tax on real estate and that these are fundamental things local government does in even in the most backwater province where they may not even have a library system. Most (b…

I will definitely give this a read. This is an idea I happened upon and have developed informally so it will be very interesting to read someone who has codified it a bit.

It's interesting to me that casual civics and history instruction spends so much time on the bill of rights, democracy, etc and yet the system of "private property" which to my eye appears even more fundamental than our constitution to how things work in our society is taken for granted.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#303

Post by atestu »

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #178
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

Shoes might be more expensive, but not $300. New Balance still makes shoes in the US, and they're priced about the same as other brands. But US-made stuff, on the whole, is also better quality and longer-lasting than Chinese.

The New Balance sneakers that are made in US / UK cost close to $200 https://www.newbalance.com/made-in-the-usa/

But I don't know if that makes me disagree with you or not given the price of a lot of sneakers these days...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#304

Post by 908B64B197 »

xt00 wrote: post #181
puranjay wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

One major differentiator between the US and China is that China traditionally / currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits). Whereas the US, for all of its flailing around politically, is perceived by many people in many countries as a good p…

> currently is not considered a good destination for foreigners / immigrants. (even Chinese people inside China from lower tier cities / countryside struggle to gain residency in top tier cities or get good jobs / benefits)

And to the US.

Once Chinese reach tier 1 cities, they try to get their kids into US universities.

> So, hopefully the US doesn't lose its "mindshare" leadership around being a good destination for immigrants, because in the next 50 years we will see more and more battles for bringing immigrants to your country to make up for the low birth rates.

This was predicted ad-nauseam (especially when the last administration took office). Yet the opposite happened [0]. 3-5x more applicants than the per year quota.

[0] https://redbus2us.com/uscis-received-484k-h1b-registrations-...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#305

Post by Longlius »

colechristensen wrote: post #123
puranjay wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything…

Japan has seen an explosive growth in poverty, especially among young people.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#306

Post by quickthrower2 »

Miraste wrote: post #174
smt88 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a popular theory on reddit, but it's not true. Birth rates are extremely low even in countries that paid parents to stay at home with kids and generally have good work culture. You would also expect birth rates to be lowest among people working 2-3 low-wage jobs, which is also not true. As financial stability and safety increase, birth rates go down. That's the only common driver of it. Historically, children…

Resulting from otherwise positive changes doesn't mean low birth rates aren't a problem. It's a long term one, of course, but they have to be fixed at some point. If the entire world gets to the development level of South Korea with birth rates below 1, civilization will collapse until it regresses to a point that people start having >2 children again.

What does the collapsing civilisation look like?

It might just be a more frugal civilisation without the bells and whistles. And the bullshit jobs will disappear.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#307

Post by peteradio »

taylodl wrote: post #292
peteradio wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical of those numbers although they may be wholly true, they may only be technically true because final "huge value add" simple assembly is done onshore while all the base parts are produced offshore.

Ford "assembles" cars - that's why they're called "assembly lines." Yes, any manufactured good of sufficient complexity will have at least one part coming from somewhere else in the world that specializes in making that part. That's not a bad thing. Insisting we make everything in the U.S. to be counted as being built in the U.S. is a huge step backwards. It is simply unreasonable to expect the U.S. to be the most ef…

I don't consider cars simple assembly, that has obvious value add when compared to a pile of parts. Fiber optic assemblies are expensive to buy but trivial to build from the inexpensive imported parts. Forcing purchasers of those assembled parts to buy onshore should count as an effective negative manufacturing GDP because it could have been purchased offshore fully assembled for cheaper. Perhaps there are good national security reasons for requiring onshore assembly of telecoms equipment but mixing it with economics statements is goosing.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#308

Post by worik »

puranjay wrote: post #107
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

It is a tautology that "grow at all costs" is not a sustainable economic order.

It has been apparent since at least the 1970s that the limits to the growth phase of industrialisation is looming.

It has been blindingly obvious for twenty years that we urgently need to change our economies to not require growth to maintain development.

This is not new. It has been shouted from the roof tops for decades.

Not shifting economic models will produce much more grief than shifting.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#309

Post by [deleted] »

ROTMetro wrote: post #196
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shoes might be more expensive, but not $300. New Balance still makes shoes in the US, and they're priced about the same as other brands. But US-made stuff, on the whole, is also better quality and longer-lasting than Chinese.

Most New Balance shoes are now made in Asia. Some are still produced in the USA.

[deleted]

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#310

Post by bamboozled »

puranjay wrote: post #107
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

His core arguments focus on geography and demographics, both of which are “hard” problems. Declining populations simply cannot maintain the “grow at all costs” current economic order. Even an advanced country like Japan with plenty of automation and high productivity rates hasn’t see any growth in two decades since its population itself doesn’t grow anymore. Even if you don’t go by his more alarmist arguments, you ha…

Not sure if you’ve been to Japan within the last twenty years but it’s neither advanced or highly automated. People do everything.

Edit Anyone down voting please supply some practical examples of how Japan is advanced and highly automated.

Also it wasn't meant as a criticism of Japan, I love the place. I just believe that the stereotype of Japan being in the future isn't accurate or helpful. It's overused.

Post reply on HN