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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#251

Post by burntoutfire »

hedora wrote: post #176
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

I've recently been surprised much better EU manufacturing is doing than US manufacturing. I don't think cost of labor is the only factor at play.

That is because EU has Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary and other places where Western Europe partially outsourced parts of its manufacturing. It was more expensive than moving it to China, but otherwise much more convenient and less risky.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#252

Post by mb_72 »

danenania wrote: post #216
anonporridge wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, this is one of America's superpowers. America is quite unique in the world by being so significantly multicultural, and increasingly so. It can tune and balance its demographics with immigration. It is especially good at attracting the best and brightest from around the world, because there is a realistic, and well trodden path, of not only fully integrating yourself and your children into American society, bu…

Well said. Growing up in the US, this is something I completely took for granted. Living in a couple other countries made me realize how special and unique it is.

Australia (my home country) is another that comes to mind in terms of multiculturalism, and I also took it for granted before I spent time in a very different country (Estonia).

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#253

Post by KennyBlanken »

taylodl wrote: post #203
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

It's only unpopular because it flies in the face of economics. You say you're fine paying $300 for a pair of shoes - but are you okay with your livelihood being making shoes? If you're capable of doing higher-value work then isn't it a "waste" for you to be doing lower-value work? The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and mos…

> The U.S. has invested trillions of dollars building an infrastructure that has led its citizens to being some of the best-educated and most-productive in the world.

Citation, please (and yeah, I see you using weasel words.)

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#254

Post by pas »

ren_engineer wrote: post #230
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

offshoring is short term optimization and has long term negative consequences by killing the entire ecosystem it takes to go from raw material to finished products. The problem is that economists only think 1st order effects, not 2nd and 3rd order. Charlie Munger has a pretty good take on it and how many economists and our own government officials are in complete denial about it: >Now let’s follow and second and thir…

wow, that's some high-density bullshit.

> But which nation is going to be growing faster in economic terms?

well, likely both. because of trade and specialization. when the US offshored shoemaking people did not just went to the beach and called it a day. both capital and labor got reallocated for better returns. (yes, not everyone moved to the service industry, unfortunately not everybody was able or willing to change to different jobs/sectors.)

> maybe even having more and better atomic bombs

even one is plenty.

> If you try and talk like this to an economics professor, and I’ve done this three times, they shrink in horror and offense because they don’t like this kind of talk. It really gums up this nice discipline of theirs, which is so much simpler when you ignore second and third order consequences.

was it at a xenophobic libertarian economists party?

anyway regarding higher order effects and long-term strategy and American "interests":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKVQDUQR8I4&t=117s

and https://reason.com/2022/06/07/globalization-is-alive-well-an...

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#255

Post by divided »

bombcar wrote: post #213
divided wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m interested in examples of where breaking a company’s rules has led to fines or imprisonment—particularly ones _enforced_ by the tech monopoly—that didn’t also involve breaking laws. Not talking about the flaws in technology (your example of misidentification for instance). You may just be making a separate point, but my response was in regards to the sentiment of its parent. Your other comments I agree with, but…

The closest at this time would be PayPal freezing/seizing accounts that are "in violation of the terms and conditions" - there are various stories around it. A government is more than just the entity that can fine/imprison you.

Right, they can. Undoubtedly kicking someone off a private platform can cause them harm, sometimes significant harm. We agree there.

Where I disagree is the term goverment-like enforcement implies more than de-platforming. Seizing assets is closer, but banks and apartments and landlords have seized assets for hundreds (thousands?) of years. It would also be a stretch to call rules and enforcements of those rules by banks, apartments, and landlords government-like. These tech monopoly rules and enforcement don’t seem outside the norm for a private entity.

I don’t disagree that the scale of the companies present problems that need to be addressed. But businesses having rules and enforcing them are not problems alone.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#256

Post by RC_ITR »

hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

What you’re describing is “inflation” and based on how mad people are about inflation now, I fear your vision is fantastical

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#257

Post by derriz »

ren_engineer wrote: post #237
derriz wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US manufacturing output has not actually declined though - it has never been higher and has increased over 40% in the last 2 decades[1]. The perception of US manufacturing decline is widespread. My guess is that this perception is due to a number of factors. Other sectors of the US economy have grown more, so manufacturing now represents a smaller share. And also as productivity increases, fewer people are required t…

relative output matters and the US has lost massively in terms of global manufacturing compared to what it used to be. saying US manufacturing hasn't declined is like saying IBM hasn't declined in stature compared to decades past. IBM technically has more revenue than they did in the past, but they aren't considered a technology leader anymore and very few are impressed by them, many see them as a dying company

I don't think using IBM is an appropriate comparison. It is a company in actual decline - revenues peaked at about $110B just over ten years ago and were less than $60B last year. Like I said US manufacturing output is growing and has been growing.

And I don't subscribe to a zero-sum view. Just because other historically poorer countries have grown economically doesn't hurt Americans (the opposite) or their way of life or standard of living. And just because other sectors of the US economy (like tourism for example) have grown more rapidly doesn't mean that US manufacturing is harmed - and certainly doesn't mean Americans are worse off in any absolute sense.

Worrying about loss of stature is highly subjective and is more about feelings/pride/emotions/etc.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#258

Post by KennyBlanken »

manuelabeledo wrote: post #202
hintymad wrote: post #167

This is probably an unpopular opinion: it pains me to see the manufacturing industry decline in the US. I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. And no, I'm not talking about just the so-called "low-end" manufacturing, but also the high end. Indeed, how can we even grow "high-end" talent if…

> I don't really mind paying $300 for a pair of shoes. Yes, it will be expensive, but then I'll just buy fewer pairs. In return, more people get decent jobs, or so I hope. I suspect that this would just help keep the same returns for the shareholders and executives. Shoes may be more expensive, but not $200 more expensive (if we take that on average they cost $100 now) if made in the US. Even for a single worker spen…

The whole "we can't make things in America, you wouldn't be able to afford them" song and dance is a lie. When companies outsourced production of goods, they didn't drop the prices - they pocketed the increase in margin.

The reverse is true: nothing stops production from coming back except corporate/investor greed.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#259

Post by Animats »

ok_dad wrote: post #182
downrightmike wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is it any good? That's the question. I don't doubt that they'll try something in the next 10 years, because now is the largest force they'll ever be able to muster. One child policy screwed them.

The success of the US Navy in the past was due to constant training and the empowerment of the officer corps at the junior ranks, and billions in cash thrown at tech and equipment. If China can afford to train well, has decent technology that’s reliable, and is flexible enough to allow power to disseminate the ranks, then I assume they are on the way to overtaking the US Navy in ability as the USN wanes due to lack o…

The US Navy has a lot of problems.[1]

The big one is that they haven't fought a naval battle in decades. The US Army, Air Force, and USMC have been involved in too many wars in recent decades. For better or worse, they have a lot of people who have been at the sharp end. The Navy, not so much.

It's beginning to look like warships will not be able to operate anywhere near a hostile shore in future. Truck-mounted systems are now a serious threat to warships. No more parking a helicopter carrier offshore and sending in the Marines. The new "littoral combat ships" are already being retired after only a few years in service.

[1] https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-225t.pdf

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#260

Post by ProjectArcturis »

more_corn wrote: post #184
ProjectArcturis wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard of Zeihan. The article touts his prowess of predicting a Russian invasion of Ukraine in his book published in late 2014. Well, Russia had just seized Crimea and eastern Donbass in February of 2014, so this doesn't strike me as a particularly prescient call.

Except that from January to March this year pundits swore up and down that Russia wouldn’t launch a full invasion of Ukraine. When it happened a lot of people were surprised. You could have made a killing in the stock market if you’d realized that Russia would certainly invade, and they probably had a deadline in order to maximize the summer fighting season. It seemed obvious to me, but not so obvious that I position…

Pundits? Maybe some did. There are lots of pundits and I'm sure many of them get a lot wrong and some get things right by pure chance.

On the other hand, US intelligence was shouting loud and clear in mid-February that an invasion was immanent.

In any case, making a claim in October 2014 that at some point Russia would continue its invasion of Ukraine is not a particularly impressive feat.

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