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TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

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Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been a ton of real technological advances since 2008 that is not just on paper. You could have also said the exact same thing in 2000.

Kinda, but a lot of them are about manufacturing more cheap stuff in China. Most technological advances not involving that are about skirting the regulations/antitrust laws (AirBnB, Uber, Google Ads) or using dark patterns to manipulate attention (Meta).

You are distracted by clickbait news and ignoring important advances made since 2008, a few examples which is just scratching the surface because there is a ton I am personally not even aware of:

* Greatly reduced cost of solar panels and batteries * Things like uber/doordash made taxis / takeout way more efficient * Transitioning to electric vehicles. In 2008 I'd pay $50/week for fuel, now I pay $10/week to travel the same distance in my electric car. Not to mention savings in oil changes/maintenance * mRNA vaccines nonexistent in 2008 * Significant progress towards autonomous vehicles, if that comes to fruition on a large scale it will transform our society

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting take. I mostly agree, but I do think there is legitimate value in the foundation. Every time the ponzi collapses, the next jenga tower has a slightly higher foundation

I've gotten confused in the metaphors here. Do you think that with the collapse of every ponzi scheme that the next ponzi scheme is somehow less ... scheme-y? I'm not even sure what that really means, but it seems to me that ponzi schemes, by definition, always go to 0 in the long run. There are no foundations, just greed and misery. Can you clarify?

The ponzis are being built by people on top of slowly evolving layers of useful technology. Of course the actual building isn't tied to the hype cycles, but from the perspective of most people it's just ponzis swelling and bursting.

There is real innovation happening though, fuelling the FOMO every time another bubble forms.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting take. I mostly agree, but I do think there is legitimate value in the foundation. Every time the ponzi collapses, the next jenga tower has a slightly higher foundation

Curious, but what's your take on what this foundation is, functionally speaking? Is it indeed a decentralized financial alternative that will address the current woes of tradfi? Or is it something else? Or is it, again in your opinion, sort of a blank canvas, and just SOME foundation that's being emerging, and eventually people will be building on top of it?

The foundation is a decentralized way to transfer value, without intermediaries.

The actual value-additive innovation right now is happening around financial primitives being rebuilt in a decentralized manner, using smart contracts. Everything from the virtual machine to the language capabilities (and restrictions) to the "legos" used to build decentralized applications are constantly evolving.

The constant hacks are also a form of hardening that's happening. New kinds of attacks are regularly discovered, and then exploited or responsibly disclosed, and then protocols start to guard against them, and the entities building the "legos" (I'm mainly talking about OpenZeppelin) upgrade any pieces that need to be upgraded.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#334
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A user can purchase $1000 of DAI and send this to another person in the world within 30-60 seconds, without the beneficiary needing to set up a USD bank account or disclose private data to a third party. Your “refutation” is leaving out some key details: 1. You do in fact have to deal with legal requirements - it’s a requirement for converting into useful money and tax evasion has serious consequences in most of th…

20% returns as you see in Terra is probably ponzi-like, but ETH protocol is not promising free yield for doing nothing, or doubling or tripling your investments. > You do in fact have to deal with legal requirements - it’s a requirement for converting into useful money and tax evasion has serious consequences in most of the world. I never said otherwise. Buyer can purchase the DAI on a KYC exchange that is regulated…

> 20% returns as you see in Terra is probably ponzi-like, but ETH protocol is not promising free yield for doing nothing, or doubling or tripling your investments.

The protocol isn't promising anything. The people promoting it are, however.

> > You do in fact have to deal with legal requirements - it’s a requirement for converting into useful money and tax evasion has serious consequences in most of the world.

> I never said otherwise. Buyer can purchase the DAI on a KYC exchange that is regulated by their government. The beneficiary can report taxes on income and capital gains as they do with other assets.

Here's what you said: “without the beneficiary needing to set up a USD bank account or disclose private data to a third party.” How is that true if you're not breaking KYC?

> > Replacing Western Union has some appeals but it’s not enough to justify the returns which blockchain salespeople have been claiming, especially when the established player can cut margins easily and blockchain users need a fairly large just to compensate for currency conversion and increased risk.

> This is now a subjective argument about what you feel is better or more valuable. To some people, reducing commission for global transfers to 0%, with 30-60s finality and better privacy features is all desirable and valuable.

It's an economic fact, not a subjective argument. If you're just cutting out a middleman, you're not going to be able to make a greater return than the middleman is currently taking. You could argue that this will unlock some kind of previous unviable economic activity which will dramatically increase volume, but that's a separate argument and needs some data supporting the idea that it's probable at a level which would provide the promised returns.

> reducing commission for global transfers to 0%,

You surely meant 0% plus the transaction and currency conversion fees on both ends, right?

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#335
post #329
post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the reason I just gave: it would mean that others could say “I told you so” about Dai/Compound etc not crashing. If it’s still not clear, imagine I was always saying the stock market is a scam and would collapse. Do I get credit for predicting Netflix’s recent tumble? Even if it happened for completely unrelated reasons to the mechanisms of collapse I was warning about? It’s fine to be risk-averse and avoid crypt…

> it would mean that others could say “I told you so” about Dai/Compound etc not crashing. No, they really cant. Like, I have no idea what DAI/Compound are, and trivial googling didn't answer. A random counterexample doesn't disprove every famous and/or high market cap coin crashing. To use your market example, if you kept saying tech stocks are overpriced we would judge it based on the performance of the NASDAQ. You…

>No, they really cant. Like, I have no idea what DAI/Compound are, and trivial googling didn't answer.

Well ... yeah, that kinda highlights the problem. If you don't know what something is, and are unwilling to learn, and have a hard time with google[1], then no, you don't get to claim vindication as having wisely made an appropriate inference based on valid evidence. Hence my point.

To fill you in: articbull's comments were vague enough to apply equally well to lending out the stablecoin DAI no the Compound platform, which did not crash or have to suspend withdrawals at any point.

Also, you have no idea, but you knew to switch Dai to all caps? :-p I think you're switching modes.

>A random counterexample doesn't disprove every famous and/or high market cap coin crashing.

>To use your market example, if you kept saying tech stocks are overpriced we would judge it based on the performance of the NASDAQ. You wouldn't be able to say "well, Apple still convinces people to give them all their money and they're still doing well so you were wrong."

Okay, and if you had been saying to avoid tech stocks for the past ten years, then you wouldn't be able to claim credit for the few times it does fall back, esp if it was up o average (hence my point about predicting 8 of the last three crashes).

You definitely wouldn't be able to claim credit for "having warned" someone about a specific stock's fumble (like Netflix's unforced errors), if "tech bad" is all you were basing it on, which is what arcticbull was doing when claiming to have to have warned about Luna in his comments merely because of a general anti-crypto stance.

>I don't touch crypto because I think it's a scam

The point is that that's not the same as differential insight into which specific ones are scams and why. If some aren't scams, that makes you wrong about them, and inability to differentiate means you can't claim to have had deep insight even when some do turn out to be scams.

IOW, you can be right for the wrong reasons, and if so, you can't claim that as vindication.

[1] Also, really? "dai cryptocurrency" and "compound cryptocurrency" both take you directly to explanations of what they are. On google, the latter pops up a "what is compound..." question which, when expanded, explains that it's a protocol for lending and borrowing.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ego and over-confidence. People think they can outperform the S&P500. They can't.

By definition, 50% of capital outperforms the SP500, which is an average. What the Buffett bet was all about is that you don’t know WHO will outperform, and with fees being a net-drag, a basket of hedge funds will on average underperform due to the average of them being, average, and then negative due to fees.

Nope, nope, nope that's not how statistics works. Median != Mean

Also volatility matters, like a lot.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#337
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

20% returns as you see in Terra is probably ponzi-like, but ETH protocol is not promising free yield for doing nothing, or doubling or tripling your investments. > You do in fact have to deal with legal requirements - it’s a requirement for converting into useful money and tax evasion has serious consequences in most of the world. I never said otherwise. Buyer can purchase the DAI on a KYC exchange that is regulated…

> 20% returns as you see in Terra is probably ponzi-like, but ETH protocol is not promising free yield for doing nothing, or doubling or tripling your investments. The protocol isn't promising anything. The people promoting it are, however. > > You do in fact have to deal with legal requirements - it’s a requirement for converting into useful money and tax evasion has serious consequences in most of the world. > I ne…

> The protocol isn't promising anything. The people promoting it are, however.

Anchor's whitepaper and protocol promises ridiculous yield on USD pegged assets, and it is the basis for the entire Terra/Luna crash.[1] Nobody designing the ETH protocol is claiming that it provides USD pegged yield or will double or triple your investment. The closest thing written into the protocol is a return on the native ETH token for block producers - miners or stakers - receiving block rewards from the protocol and tips from user transactions.

Ignore the laser eye Michael Saylor's of the world who make ridiculous claims about these protocols that are unsubstantiated - try to look at the protocol design and spec.

> Here's what you said: “without the beneficiary needing to set up a USD bank account or disclose private data to a third party.” How is that true if you're not breaking KYC?

The sender sets up an account, the receiver only needs a 24 word seed phrase to receive the tokens. Maybe the receiver will need to declare this as a gift or income depending on context and their country's tax laws, sharing details with their government, but they are not having to share details to PayPal or another private company that would typically facilitate an international transaction like this.

> You surely meant 0% plus the transaction and currency conversion fees on both ends, right?

Depending on the use case, there may not be a fiat exchange. Another user might be happy to receive 1000 DAI, in which case there is no centralized exchange needed.

The transaction fees can be minimal through L2 - in cents - and are different than commissions and take-rates of processors like Western Union or PayPal. In ETH, most of the fee is burned, reducing total supply and providing value to the entire network. Another part of the fee is a tip to the block producers, which in a permissionless system can be any entity with enough capital at stake. Finally the fee is a fixed amount, not a percentage of total value being sent. Transaction fees are not perfect - a fee-free permissionless network is not possible - but some will find it preferable and more fairly distributed worldwide compared to how private payment processors currently extract rent.

[1] https://www.anchorprotocol.com/docs/anchor-v1.1.pdf

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#338
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until liquidity runs out.

Great, then you should cite evidence of declining liquidity if you want to support the thesis of Tether being about to blow up. FWIW, I agree Tether is flaky and worth avoiding (to the point of having a short), I just cringe at attempts to cite market cap as a meaningful figure on its own.

That's because market cap is one of the few numbers that can be computed from the outside. If they issued audited financial statements quarterly, we'd know more. Yes, there is their rather vague backing report.[1]

[1] https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1np5dpcwuHrWJ4AgUg...

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#339
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great, then you should cite evidence of declining liquidity if you want to support the thesis of Tether being about to blow up. FWIW, I agree Tether is flaky and worth avoiding (to the point of having a short), I just cringe at attempts to cite market cap as a meaningful figure on its own.

That's because market cap is one of the few numbers that can be computed from the outside. If they issued audited financial statements quarterly, we'd know more. Yes, there is their rather vague backing report.[1] [1] https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1np5dpcwuHrWJ4AgUg...

You can also look at how closely it maintains the peg, and whether it’s at a premium as much as it’s at a discount. (By which Tether does poorly.)

It’s misleading to look at the market cap with the implication that it’s fluctuations are due to loss of value per unit (the usual cause for non-stablecoins).

You might as well say that your bank lost $500 when you made a $500 withdrawal (while neglecting to mention the deletion of $500 in liabilities).

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By definition, 50% of capital outperforms the SP500, which is an average. What the Buffett bet was all about is that you don’t know WHO will outperform, and with fees being a net-drag, a basket of hedge funds will on average underperform due to the average of them being, average, and then negative due to fees.

Nope, nope, nope that's not how statistics works. Median != Mean Also volatility matters, like a lot.

Median is obviously not mean. I never mentioned median anywhere. Where is the median of market return relevant here?

Yes, volatility matters and is why people generally prefer to get the lower volatility average market return. But that’s not very relevant to many peoples claims on here that SP500 outperforms most capital, which is obviously incorrect.

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