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Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

briangitt.com

71–80 of 295 posts

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#71
>Trillions of dollars were spent on wind and solar projects over the last 20 years, yet the world’s dependence on fossil fuels declined only 3 percentage points, from 87% to 84%.

A lot of that money was spent on R&D. Tens of billions of [inflation-adjusted] dollars were spent on the Manhattan Project, but the net effect on fossil fuel usage was zero (outside of two cities in Japan).

If this is the author's key argument, he's just wrong, plain and simple. For context, I support investment in nuclear energy, precisely because it offers the fastest replacement for fossil fuels. But that doesn't mean I think you couldn't do it with solar and batteries — you absolutely could — but the technology needs time to mature.

>1. Security: Does an energy source enable a country to maintain its autonomy? Controlling access to critical minerals and natural resources to make affordable, reliable energy is a precondition for liberty and self-determination. Relying on energy imports or minerals from other countries puts a nation at risk.

It's painfully ironic to read a paean to nuclear power that leads with this as its highest priority! Sure, this is perfectly valid for nuclear energy in the United States, or in India, China, Russia, the UK, France, Pakistan -- you know the list. But the modal nation cannot produce fissile material and maintain its autonomy. It will be sanctioned or worse. Just ask Iran, South Africa or Libya.

>7. Land use: What are the energy source’s effects on wildlife, habitat, farmland, viewsheds, and coastlines? For example, a typical 1,000-megawatt US nuclear power plant needs little more than 1 square mile to operate. Solar farms need 75 times more land to produce the same amount of energy. Wind farms need 360 times more.

This is largely a red herring. Actual land use is driven by the regulation of land use, and any energy-related uses are a small fraction. If solar farms displace agricultural usage in the Southwest, that could actually be good for the environment by reducing irrigation! Also, wind can be trivially co-located with agriculture, while for solar this is difficult, so a simple area comparison is not apples-to-apples.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#72
> I used to think solar and wind power were the best ways to reduce CO2 emissions. But the biggest reduction in CO2 emissionsduring the past 15 years (over 60%) has come from switching from coal to natural gas.

Sure, but that's not a long term solution. Eventually we will have to entirely rid the system of fossile fuels. Had we not invested in, an continued to develop wind and solar these last 20 years, and only focused on natural gas, would our chances to prevent global warming be any better? I don't think so.

> I used to think that the world was transitioning to solar, wind, and batteries. This, too, was false. Trillionsof dollars were spent on wind and solar projects over the last 20 years, yet the world’s dependence on fossil fuels declined only 3 percentage points, from 87% to 84%.

How much was invested in fossile fuel energy during the same period? Many times more! If investments in fossile energy continues at high levels, why would the worlds dependency on them decrease?

You are too pessimistic about the outlook for solar and wind. There are problems with renewables such as variance in production. If nuclear is competitive let's us have some of that as well. No reason to only have one or the other.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#73
post #52
post #21

I would agree he has some valid points but on the whole he misses a fair bit and sounds very jaded. Like lets just do Natural Gas and Nuclear Power - which isn't a great solution in the long run. 1. Wind + Solar are insured for 20 years but last much longer. They are still in their early phase of adoption and costs are still falling. 2. Of course energy isn't a one size fits all - so you need to be aware of all the d…

Agreed. It seems the author is falling into another shortsighted position after getting out of the previous one. > it’s time to be honest about all the costs and benefits of every energy source is a good advice, but then you can't just say > Solar farms need 75 times more land to produce the same amount of energy. based on a study that compares the footprint of only the facility. To be honest about the costs, you hav…

The 87% -> 84% is disingenuous at best and probably not accurate in the first place.

It represents a massive uptick in China’s carbon energy consumption while places like the USA have been flat to down and transitioned nearly 25% of energy consumption to renewables

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#74
post #66
post #25

This reads more to me as: “I thought I was going to be a hero, turns out I was early in the technology cycle, haven’t yet had the impact that I wanted and now I’ve finally realized I made a ton of assumptions.” Instead of increasing his scope of understanding though, He decided to retreat into the thing that won during the time period that he was trying to win. That strategy rarely works.

That's how I read it too. Also as someone who has been in the industry since early 200s it's been a long rollercoaster ride and it isn't stopping. Easy to get disenchanted and jaded especially if you live in the bay area where you watch people make money for stuff that sometimes has little to no real value.

The cleantech struggle is real.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#75
Look at his other articles - this guy is super disingenuous. Disappointed I didn't look at that first before getting baited into trying to refute his heavily inaccurate and biased position. From his other posts

"Natural gas provides the most cost-effective near-term solution for affordable, reliable, low-emission energy. Shifts from coal to natural gas have produced the biggest emissions reductions over the past 15 years. Natural gas produces only 10% of the air pollutants and 50% of the CO2 that coal does.[10] Natural gas also has many uses beyond providing power; fertilizers, computers, medical equipment, steel, plastic, mobile phones, cars, and most consumer products are currently made from natural gas and oil. In fact, even solar and wind require natural gas as a backup because they don’t operate most of the time.

Energy Capital Ventures (ECV) is one of the few VCs that sees the potential of natural gas. Instead of chasing popular trends, ECV correctly sees the path to achieving low-emission energy will come through investments in scaleable energy technology such as advanced leak detection and methane capture, process automation and controls, renewable natural gas, and synthetic microbes that absorb greenhouse emissions."

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#76
post #14

During the current situation I learned an interesting thing about nuclear power plants: if you bomb them, the amount of radioactivity that will be released into atmosphere because of waste products storage on site is vastly larger than the one that would be released by a nuclear explosion in a random place. Because unfortunately most nuclear waste is stored on site because of the NIMBY problem. So every nuclear power…

Not only that, but even ignoring the radiation, a nuclear plant is a single point of failure that will leave a lot of people without electricity.

And it can easily become a target in case of war, terrorism but also social unrest.

A decentralized network of both domestic solar and public solar, wind, hydro, geothermal sources is much more resilient / anti-fragile.

Also, centralization of political power around big energy companies is not good for democracy.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. So what? Or put another way, if its so cheap, why is Germany building natural gas pipelines to ship Russian gas for decades to come? What do they (and every other country) know that you don't? The reality is you're not comparing apples to apples. Natural gas can serve as base load and power a modern economy. Solar/wind can…

By the time any new nuclear reactor is designed, built and turned on, we'll certainly have many new/more ways to store energy for longer time (e.g new battery chemistry, hydrogen…). Here in France, half of our nuclear reactors are now off (and we had to turn on some old coal plants because of many unexpected technical issues). https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/business/france-nuclear-p... The new EPR (Flamanville) c…

We’ve been BEGGING for more nuclear power for decades.

The world still uses coal for 40% of electricity and now Europe is firing up more coal plants because of the war in Ukraine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/ukraine-war-europe-turns-to-...

Would it be safe to assume we lost at least a decade of time waiting for the windmills, batteries, etc?

We could be talking about carbon neutral by 2060 instead of 2050.

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#78

The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. Filling the gaps left by intermittent production with storage is rapidly decreasing in costs, and will soon be low enough that Solar/Wind/Storage will outcompete Natural Gas or nuclear 95% of the time. There is probably a small role for other sources in filling capacity gaps during uncommon weather events (i.e. natural gas…

The cost or the price? The price of renewable energy is often very low, frequently even negative. This does not reflect renewables advantages, but their disadvantages: being available in abundance when the energy is not needed or wanted. Even the Energy Return on Investment is barely sufficient for solar, for example, so I have a hard time believing that the cost is actually competitive.

This is false[1].

PV produces 10 to 20 times as much energy as it takes to make, dropping all the time with improvements.

[1] https://reneweconomy.com.au/busting-the-myth-on-energy-retur...

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#79

The cost per kWh of solar and wind is a third of natural gas and nuclear. It's not even close. Filling the gaps left by intermittent production with storage is rapidly decreasing in costs, and will soon be low enough that Solar/Wind/Storage will outcompete Natural Gas or nuclear 95% of the time. There is probably a small role for other sources in filling capacity gaps during uncommon weather events (i.e. natural gas…

[deleted]

Re: Chasing utopian energy: How I wasted 20 years of my life

#80

I am flabbergasted how much governments, media and institutions lie to the public about the feasibly of wind and solar as a replacement for fossil fuels.

What motivation do you think they have to lie?

Oil, gas and nuclear companies are among the most wealthy and powerful is the world and have been actively lobbying for decades.
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