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TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

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Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#271
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stablecoins are useful, because they let you set prices on the blockchain that aren't denominated in BTC or ETH or another currency that fluctuates wildly. A good stablecoin is pretty boring in terms of gains/profits, but can generate a modest stream of fees. Terra had a sister coin called Luna which it planned to use to keep Terra stable. Luna had the price dynamics of ETH or BTC, where it's value depended solely on…

How is having a sister coin supposed to stop volatility in the stablecoin?

It didn't.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any conversation with anyone involved in the industry quickly reveals that their goal is to get rich from asset speculation. Do you really think if you ask Charles Hoskinson (creator of Cardano) this, then this will become clear? If so why bother with so much peer-reviewed academic research? Is that all part of the scam? Similar question about Vitalik > This is fraud. There needs to be consequences, and the liars g…

they have all profited by destroying other people's lives. It's possible that they didn't know that's where the money was coming from. But unlikely, because they're smart people and they have extensive knowledge of this industry. Where did they think the money was coming from, if not ultimately gullible individuals whose lives are being ruined by this?

Okay so if I ask them it won't become clear? You seem to have changed this from "they will make it clear they are scammers" to "I think they are scammers"

Also, there is a lot of VC money in Cardano and Ethereum

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need to regulate stablecoins, and we need to regulate Web3 entities like regular companies. And I believe regulations are coming. Regulations don't conjure out of thin air - but tend to be the result of people or governments getting screwed over.

The whole point of crypto is that it's not regulated. As soon as the regulators take real action on crypto, the entire promise of crypto will vanish in a puff of smoke. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but I struggle to envision what a tightly-regulated crypto market would look like that wouldn't defy the entire point of crypto.

Indeed, regulation in the anti-thesis of crypto, and what crypto enthusiasts detest - but if crypto has any plans of going mainstream, regulations will have to be in place.

I think that regulations would come in the form of how so-called stablecoins and their owner companies can operate, how other companies (exchanges, etc.) can operate, and so on.

Take stablecoins - one might regulate these with hard requirements of how many % of their backing are in extremely liquid assets. Take tether - the idea is that it should be backed 1-to-1 with USD. Of course, that is not the case, at all. The owners have said that it's not backed at such ratio.

With extremely opaque stablecoins, you really have no idea what they're backed by. Imagine if stablecoin xyz said "We're 99.99% backed by [some currency]!" but then it turns out that they're backed 5% by said currency, and the rest has been put on the stock market - because the owners figured they could get filthy rich by betting all that money on low-risk stocks. Works until it doesn't work, and then people do a run on the coin.

So, regular audits, full transparency, hard regulations around what they can or can't do. That alone will probably flush out the majority of fly-by-night scams.

I think it is understood that most people are in it for huge and quick gains. Some crytpo fundamentalists will say that they're in it "for the tech", but I would be very, very surprised if that was the case for majority of crypto holders. So you are right - a regulated crypto space will probably drive out many of the speculators and gamblers, but I think that's OK. In the end there's a need for cheap and efficient cross-boarder payments, without having massive companies as middle-men. But to achieve true mainstream adaption, that will come at costs. The wild-west days are closing up.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#274
post #265
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once read an article describing this basically as "farming" vs "trapping" tactics. For a farmer, there is basically always more work to do (weeding, sowing, harvesting, maintaining tools and buildings, looking after animals etc etc etc) and often more work directly results in more profit. Trapping on the other hand is not like that. Once you have set your traps, you must now sit still and wait. Checking every 5 min…

That's an interesting premise, but as someone who does regular trapping for exotic pests, actual trapping is very much work. You do your rounds (a lot of walking), pull out dead animals and carry them with you, re-bait your traps, repair traps as required, dump the dead animals, and repeat over and over again. I guess there are other forms of trapping - more like hunting, a one off exercise to get that - but I would…

I agree that the actual "setting up traps" is work, but so is choosing investments (even if that is usually shunted off to an index fund these days).

My gist was more that in both investing and trapping there is a point where the positions are set up and there just isn't anything that you can do to make the process go faster. Not being able to make it go faster by putting in additional work seems to be psychologically difficult to cope with for many people.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#275
post #261

Lots of noise in the crypto space and the HN comments are always bad. BTC and ETH are the interesting and worth putting a small percentage of your holdings into (BTC [0] as an international store of value that has benefits over gold, ETH as the core programmable token that backs anything that stores stuff on chain to manage decentralized state). Vitalik is earnest and his writing is pretty great. Everything else I'd…

>ETH Which ETH? As far as I understand the currency keeps forking and rewinding every now and then because whatever safety features it provides to "smart" contracts are widely insufficient and the resulting buggy mess falls over the moment a sufficiently motivated script kiddy so much as sneezes into its general direction.

It only happened once, so hardly "every now and then".

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's ego and over-confidence. People think they can outperform the S&P500. They can't.

Yes they can and many do. It’s just not likely if you’re actively trading.

Of course some do, but there are just as many (and a bit more) that under perform. The average performance relative to the index matters.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#277
post #31

I occasionally get asked by relatives and friends of what to invest in. Now I'm no expert but I guess in the valley of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Thing is what I tell them seems to bore them because, well, it's boring. My advice is basically this: Put your money in a broad index fund and don't look at it for 10 years. In giving this advice you start to realize it's not what people want to hear. It's not that…

> There's no fundamental belief in blockchain technology. For skeptics, sure. But there are many investors who hold crypto precisely because they believe in the technology. > Put your money in a broad index fund and don't look at it for 10 years. This is a good safe and low risk bet. It doesn’t invalidate an investment thesis based on crypto currencies and blockchain tech. Crypto is higher risk and higher maintenance…

But the technology doesn't actually work for anything useful (besides tax evasion). Cryptocurrency is a zero-sum ponzi scheme; for someone to win, others have to lose. With stocks, there are on average more winners than losers because new value is being created.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#278
post #116
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reporting is skipping some steps. You'd buy UST then deposit it into a "separate" bankish thing called Anchor which would pay you 20% APR. The interest was supposed to come from Anchor loaning out your UST at a higher rate. This would be sustainable in theory, but they were actually paying interest out of their marketing budget to bootstrap the Terra/Luna/Anchor "ecosystem".

So I take my coin, pegged to the dollar, and lend it Anchor for a 20% return. Anchor lends it out to someone else at >20% APR because that other person is… brain dead? Who would accept that? But again, where do the new Terra coins come from? If Anchor pays me in more stable coins, they had to buy USD to be allowed to mint them right? Does that mean I bought Terra with USD to allow Anchor (which is Terra?) to sell my…

I think the issue at play with UST is that they juiced the returns with their own money to attract holders hoping that due to market cap alone their stable coin would eventually gain adoption on the exchanges and be embraced by traders.

The reality is that these juiced returns were not sustainable and in the end made it even harder for them to defend the peg of their poorly designed pegging mechanism.

You can't compare the returns in the crypto space to the banking sector. At the moment leverage on an exchange (Binance) costs 7.3% PA at the moment. The exchange also takes a fixed percentage of your trade as a fee. This is why locking up stable coins on Binance nets you more interest than the average savings account. A bank can't or won't lend you money against crypto.

Another scenario is someone who holds say Bitcoin. They have a decent income and want to buy a new car. If they think Bitcoin will appreciate in value instead of selling Bitcoin to buy a new car (which will trigger a capital gains taxable event) they can just borrow against their Bitcoin. The cash or stablecoin for the loan has to come from somewhere. Like I said above banks won't accept Bitcoin for a secured loan.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#279
So we can establish that Terra's ridiculously high 20% yield was only sustainable so long as investors continued to put massive amounts of money into the protocol, but if a de-peg ever occurred it would create a death spiral that would send it nearly to zero and collapse the entire system. Let this be a signpost for future investors to avoid high yield promises and assume it comes with extreme risk.

But the comments here are wrongly equating Terra to the rest of crypto such as ETH, and assuming everything will collapse just the same. The value of ETH is not that the price will go up or provide predictable yield - its primary use is as a gas token in order to interact with the network, like trading any token or depositing value in a smart contract. The price of this fuel can go up and down, but the asset will always remain in demand for as long as people still wish to continue to do these things on the network.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your friend only had $5k in total and threw them all in Terra then I guess the lesson he got in the crash is way more valuable than any savings he might have kept. He would have lost them anyway on the next shitcoin.

This was my main lesson. I lost some money on Terra/Luna - thankfully much less than $5k, but still enough to sting. Looking back, I can see that I really had no idea what I was getting myself into and it was mostly just FOMO. Obviously I'd rather still have the money I lost, but in a sense I feel lucky. If Luna had waited an extra six months to collapse I would have become confident enough to put more money in, i.e.…

yes, I had similar lessons years ago with options, forex etc. (ok, yes... I needed more than one lesson :D) However, since I am a person that likes to "risk" their well-earned money, I think it's good that I have burnt my fingers early when I had less money. Now I have learnt that at the very least I should not put all my money into one bag. That's the biggest lesson: Split your investments. Split your accounts even. It doesn't rescue all your investments in a downturn but at least you'll likely never lose more than 50%.
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