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TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

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Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#201

Post by Zizizizz »

shimonabi wrote: post #196
jmyeet wrote: post #31

I occasionally get asked by relatives and friends of what to invest in. Now I'm no expert but I guess in the valley of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Thing is what I tell them seems to bore them because, well, it's boring. My advice is basically this: Put your money in a broad index fund and don't look at it for 10 years. In giving this advice you start to realize it's not what people want to hear. It's not that…

Which are broad index funds? I put a tiny amount of my savings in a pharma ETF last year and got destroyed almost as much as crypto. I hope it recovers soon.

Non industry specific

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#202

Post by SilasX »

arcticbull wrote: post #34
dubswithus wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who did you tell?

You're welcome to review my post history.

Okay, I’ll bite. Your comment history doesn’t have you mentioning Terra, TerraUSD, or Luna before May 9, e.g.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

You just made generic anti-crypto recommendations, some of which look good in hindsight. That’s not the same as identifying the specific mechanism that proved to be Luna’s downfall; it’s more like being a permabear who predicted 8 of the last 3 stock market crashes. You can likewise claim to have “told you so” about Dai’s collapse, with equally good epistemic grounding.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#203

Post by matteotom »

theplumber wrote: post #195
jmyeet wrote: post #31

I occasionally get asked by relatives and friends of what to invest in. Now I'm no expert but I guess in the valley of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Thing is what I tell them seems to bore them because, well, it's boring. My advice is basically this: Put your money in a broad index fund and don't look at it for 10 years. In giving this advice you start to realize it's not what people want to hear. It's not that…

Why you think someone trades the same stock 10 times per day? (i.e day trader). Isn't that greed? The advantage of crypto/defi done right is that at least you have some transparency and your positions won't be put on hold or liquidated arbitrary by someone like it happened on LME case or GME

Even if the on-chain stuff is transparent, there’s much less transparency in crypto/defi exchanges than any traditional investment firm.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#204

Post by randomhodler84 »

adrr wrote: post #91
dustyharddrive wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s worth mentioning USDC (Circle) reserves have never been audited, and they don’t even claim to hold dollars anymore ( https://archive.today/2021.07.12-223553/https://www.ft.com/c... ): > Until March 2020, the attestations said USDC was backed by dollars, held in government-backed US depository institutions. After that, they said the reserves were held at institutions and in “approved investments”, but did not giv…

I always wondered if the USD based stablecoins just hold each other's coins in lieu of cash. It's like an infinite money glitch if it's circular.

This is what is happening to an extent, however the reserve requirements do not allow undercollaterization so you can’t print more value than you put in. A large slice of DAI is USDC.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#205

Post by SilverBirch »

I think we really need to start talking about the broader "why" of why crypto. There's a good reason that we're seeing /r/antiwork and people throwing their last pennies into crypto. People have seen that those with assets got rich and those that work get poorer. There's no point aspiring to a better life through work. In reality what has happened is inflation that we don't measure. Assets are inflated by easy money but the government thinks this is apparently a good thing. Now inflation in the broader economy is coming, and the government response is going to be push us into a recession. So in the boom times the rich get richer, and during the bust the poor get poorer. This is not a sustainable economic settlement.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#206

Post by RC_ITR »

jmyeet wrote: post #31

I occasionally get asked by relatives and friends of what to invest in. Now I'm no expert but I guess in the valley of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Thing is what I tell them seems to bore them because, well, it's boring. My advice is basically this: Put your money in a broad index fund and don't look at it for 10 years. In giving this advice you start to realize it's not what people want to hear. It's not that…

The problem is:

Ask most people today and they’ll tell you Internet stocks were overvalued in 1998. But then you take their IRR since then and you realize you could open a hedge fund and be a billionaire just by buying the ones that were big enough to get time magazine covers, even if you bought at the absolute peak (there are literal billionaires who did basically just this!)

So now you have this thing that feels a lot like the internet, especially to lay people, and it’s not totally unreasonable for them to think “this could happen again.”

It’s just that crypto is way stupider than the internet and is unlikely to have a similar impact, so they’re probably wrong.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#207

Post by randomhodler84 »

sbf501 wrote: post #67
ntoskrnl wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are ~18000 cryptos, and out of all those, maybe two worth owning. Do I need to go open short positions on 17998 assets before I can tell people "don't buy shitcoins"?

The type of crypto the world ends up with will absolutely not be BTC or ETH. It will be closer to Zcash with zero-knowledge proofs, and will like only be used for things like international exchanges, escrow, new types of trusts (contracts are quite brilliant), or transfers between banks. People will use it the same way the used to use Moneygram, or the way they pay a thousand dollars for an escrow agent. I also belie…

Wait until the point of sale terminals support Lightning. It’s coming. International trade requires transparency in a zero trust environment.

I do like privacy tech and coins but no, I think we are far off acceptance. The risk of zk schemes is way too great for anything beyond science right now.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#208

Post by fragmede »

dubswithus wrote: post #29
jrmg wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes you are able to hold a short position for the indefinitely long irrational period in which the bubble can grow unpredictably large and your gains increasingly negative. It’s therefore also irrational to take a short position. The sensible thing to do was to stay away - and I think it’s perfectly fine for people who did so to smugly say ‘I told you so,’ presuming they did indeed do that.

Surely if you believe crypto is coming to an end in the next few years there is some way to profit.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: TerraUSD crash led to vanished savings, shattered dreams

#210

Post by ddorian43 »

prostoalex wrote: post #119
gruez wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Edit: There are also lots of investment strategies where people are short tail-risk and don't realize it or properly account for it. For instance, my dad is a pretty smart guy (practicing medical doctor who never got his undergrad degree because he crushed the MCATs and got into med school after 3 years of undergrad, back in the 1970s when med school was less competitive) but he's convinced that his gut-feeling cove…

Not saying the strategy outperforms, but he should be aware that there are ETFs now covering the covered-call strategy - XYLD, RYLD, QYLD - which automate most of that at reasonable cost.

Extremely expensive 0.6% fee and certain to under-perform the index in the long run.
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