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Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

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Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#121

Post by Judgmentality »

Judgmentality wrote: post #117
sgt101 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Not really true, collateral is decided at the end of the day and not mid day. Ho ho ho - no it's decided as soon as your lender things that it needs to liquidate you, and if it does it will know that you're not going to be able to go to court to fight afterwards. A lot of nasty scenes start with someone on a phone shouting "you can't do that for another 2 hours". Yup. Yup we can.

You write this comment as if you regularly liquidate people. Is this something you've done a lot?

Someone responded and deleted a comment that this isn't how it works. I guess I'll never know.

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#122

Post by everfree »

shuntress wrote: post #105
CapmCrackaWaka wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All kinds of speculative assets exist solely to hedge and make money on. The algorithmic traders on Wall Street aren’t trading soybeans futures because they can eat them. They’re making money. If people see price fluctuations in anything, and I mean literally anything, there will be people trying to capture those alphas. I should also point out I’m not bullish on crypto. I just acknowledge it’s unique asset class, an…

I understand that speculative trading exists. I'm saying people will continue to speculate on soybeans because they will always have some value. With a purely speculative asset, the market will eventually run out of "bigger fools". At that point, any speculative trader will look at the asset and say "Why would I pay more for this than the 0 dollars it is worth?"

How long do you predict until Bitcoin hits a price of 0 dollars?

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#123

Post by iqkznnft »

chollida1 wrote: post #2

The crypto community continues to speed run the history of traditional finance. This weeks lesson is that in an up market its leverage that makes you money and in a down market its the unwinding of leverage that kills you. They are also learning that interconnectedness will hurt more in a downturn. You can be perfectly delta hedged( don't care which way the market moves) and its the counter party risk that will sink…

> tend to make things worse by turning firms into forced sellers when they may have been able to ride things out

What do you mean, may have been able to ride things out? They owe money they don't have...

Oh, you mean, if you wait long enough crypto might come back up and they're solvent again? Right, after they lost more than they had on the first bet, you wanna let them bet again that it might come back up?

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#124

Post by bitxbitxbitcoin »

ouid wrote: post #75
chollida1 wrote: post #2

The crypto community continues to speed run the history of traditional finance. This weeks lesson is that in an up market its leverage that makes you money and in a down market its the unwinding of leverage that kills you. They are also learning that interconnectedness will hurt more in a downturn. You can be perfectly delta hedged( don't care which way the market moves) and its the counter party risk that will sink…

What follows is loose speculation, but I do not think the equilibrium price of a single bitcoin after a crash is any more likely to be $100 than $1. This is due to the anatomy of a bubble. A belief in the long term value of cryptocurrency is very tightly correlated with ones current cryptocurrency position. The demand curve, then, for cryptocurrency, is extremely steep, and the "buy pressure" for cryptocurrency will…

Guess that’s the difference between a bubble and spike?

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#125

Post by LiquidSky »

airza wrote: post #26
dcolkitt wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crypto has tried to solve this by strict liquidation rules that tend to make things worse by turning firms into forced sellers This is literally how traditional finance works as well. If you have a leveraged position at a futures or options exchange, you absolutely will be liquidated as soon as your position gets close to being in the red. I 100% guarantee you that the CME or Goldman will not let you "ride things o…

Individual investors tend to get liquidated, but for hedge funds larger investors the story is more complex. See https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-29/archeg... >: > In the traditional financial system, very few things work like this. One thing that mostly does is a margin account at a retail stock brokerage: If your stock declines, you will get a margin call, and if you don’t post margin within a def…

That old saw is evergreen: If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#126

Post by fmc30 »

shuntress wrote: post #92
CapmCrackaWaka wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The physicality of an underlying asset isn’t what makes people trade stocks, commodities, options or anything else. If you’re day trading soybean futures, it’s not the ideal of soybeans that wakes you up in the morning. It’s the money you could make. Bitcoin is a unique speculative asset because it’s value is based entirely on human interest, nothing else. I think crypto is here to stay as a speculative asset class.…

Soybeans exist and people consume them. Obviously you can speculate on whether the price of soy beans will go up or down but they will always (excluding, of course, obviously unreasonable scenarios) have some value because the soybeans themselves have some value. The producers and consumers of soybeans are extremely likely to continue producing and consuming soybeans even if no one speculates on the value of soybeans…

Any service can provide value, and Bitcoin does provide value: secure peer to peer transfer of money without a third party, nearly instantly. Why do you say there is zero use case? But like any service, its users decide what it's worth and sometimes that means network effects impact the value. I'm not making an argument for how much value this is or should have, but please stop saying the value is zero. It simply isn't true.

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#127

Post by chollida1 »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #56
chollida1 wrote: post #2

The crypto community continues to speed run the history of traditional finance. This weeks lesson is that in an up market its leverage that makes you money and in a down market its the unwinding of leverage that kills you. They are also learning that interconnectedness will hurt more in a downturn. You can be perfectly delta hedged( don't care which way the market moves) and its the counter party risk that will sink…

>$5,000 BTC and $200 ETH are in site if Tether starts to fail. IMO, pre-2017 prices for BTC (<$1000) returning is inevitable. If Tether fails, then pre-2014 prices (<$100) are more likely. BTC was at $5K a little over 2 years ago, anyone who thinks the bottom is at that level is deluding themselves.

I'll take that bet. I say BTC doesn't breach $5,000 in the next 18 months.

What do you want to bet?

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#128

Post by ouid »

ipnon wrote: post #97
ouid wrote: post #61

>Firm’s founders say they still believe in the future of cryptocurrencies. How the fuck is this the subtitle? The firm's founders saying they believe this is evidence of nothing . A responsible journalist would not include it at all. It is journalistic malpractice to make it the subtitle.

A journalist's job is to report the facts. The fact is Davies said he still believes. Seems like good journalism to me!

PR is not facts.

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#129

Post by shuntress »

fmc30 wrote: post #126
shuntress wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soybeans exist and people consume them. Obviously you can speculate on whether the price of soy beans will go up or down but they will always (excluding, of course, obviously unreasonable scenarios) have some value because the soybeans themselves have some value. The producers and consumers of soybeans are extremely likely to continue producing and consuming soybeans even if no one speculates on the value of soybeans…

Any service can provide value, and Bitcoin does provide value: secure peer to peer transfer of money without a third party, nearly instantly. Why do you say there is zero use case? But like any service, its users decide what it's worth and sometimes that means network effects impact the value. I'm not making an argument for how much value this is or should have, but please stop saying the value is zero. It simply isn…

On paper, sure. But that just is not the case in reality and probably never will be.

Re: Battered Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Considers Asset Sales, Bailout

#130

Post by shuntress »

everfree wrote: post #122
shuntress wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand that speculative trading exists. I'm saying people will continue to speculate on soybeans because they will always have some value. With a purely speculative asset, the market will eventually run out of "bigger fools". At that point, any speculative trader will look at the asset and say "Why would I pay more for this than the 0 dollars it is worth?"

How long do you predict until Bitcoin hits a price of 0 dollars?

Once the last fool has bought in.
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