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Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

benoitessiambre.com

261–270 of 323 posts

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#261
I tried a number of different approaches, like

* Target 2% inflation

* Target 4% inflation

* Target positive but little real interest rates

* Keep interests at -0.5% the whole time.

The result didn't change much (more or less between 430k and 440k) with the best being the latter one: it seems that QE is not as bad as they paint it :-P

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#262
For people looking for an in depth simulation game you should try Capitalism Lab [1]. Just to warn you the graphics looks super old (and personally I like it) but like all games like that the best is not in the graphics but what’s behind the scene. And oh boy what a simulation! You have everything you can imagine a real economic simulation needs. From interest rates to wages to import and export to limited natural ressources and their implications to limited money supply and interest rates depending how your companies performs, to banking with the DLC and the list goes on…

The goal is to create a company and go as big as you can if it’s what you want. Almost all major industries are there. You can be selling beds to being the next Apple. There is even a DLC for software company (that is also a must have because it brings the talents feature). You can do vertical market dominance if you wish or go horizontal. And learn their own challenges and their ins and outs. And you can even do trading and do some M&A!

If you ever buy it get all the DLC they are all worth it. They add even more realism and tools to the game. And if you really don’t like it I think they have a money back guarantee.

As a tip to truly learn stuff play it in “hard mode”. Even if you fail at first it’s fine because you will learn from a realistic perspective and gain a lot of insight and knowledge each time. In the game options turn everything to realistic, with average in import, good quality for import, max out the total number of cities and companies. You should end up at 340-380% in difficulty. And then build whatever you want! You don’t have to know it all or learn it all. But since it’s that realistic you can go with your gut instinct and it will probably be right. From the impact of inflation on your business, to how marketing or real estate work. Just dive in and have fun!

I’m a huge fan of this game. I learned so many things with it. From real estate to supply chain that I was not that familiar with. It’s so good.

Oh did I mention it’s still in active development? :)

[1] https://www.capitalismlab.com

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#263

I tried a number of different approaches, like * Target 2% inflation * Target 4% inflation * Target positive but little real interest rates * Keep interests at -0.5% the whole time. The result didn't change much (more or less between 430k and 440k) with the best being the latter one: it seems that QE is not as bad as they paint it :-P

Have you tried kill all the poor?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#264
post #143

After a rather dismal first couple of runs I read the blog post for some hints. The best I found was to try to raise rates during the good times so there is wiggle room during downturns. I was able to get 443,904 by raising to over 10% during the initial prosperity period and was able to cut rates in half as soon as there was a crash. Ultimately I stabilized at around 3.5%. As of the time of this post I think that is…

I barely made any changes and resulted in 430K

Thank you for your hard work. Here is your salary and hard earned pension.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#265
post #68
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under certain Keynesian views, Fed policy is mostly irrelevant, and only fiscal policy matters. Or actual printing... which low rates and QE are very different from. Another view from the neoclassical school has a similar conclusion dubbed the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition. But others say Fed policy does matter because in the real world contracts and prices are sticky. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy-ineffe…

How is QE or low rates not money printing? Low rates causes higher private lending, borrowing creates money (fractional reserve banking). QE also creates money by Federal Reserve buying Treasury's bonds with printed dollars. Both of these are temporary, but we have had QE and low rates for over a decade now. QE was supposed to be unwound in 2018, but covid pushed it to new peaks.

> How is QE or low rates not money printing?

In any case, it is not the case here as private banks and bonds do not exist.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#266

The problem with this is that economic models are (to be kind) incomplete, so playing a game like this is essentially "how to make an economy work if economies worked how we think they work."

Too true. I’d prefer a game where you see every action by the agents, not differential equations.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, we haven't had a depression quite as world-shatteringly gigantic at the Great Depression since. Although I guess it isn't obvious if that's because the system we have now is somehow better, or if it is just the case that we've been more prosperous as a baseline since then, and so our various downturns haven't launched people into such a level of destitution.

Central banks and macroeconomists have learned a lot since the Great Depression, mostly of the “don’t do that again” variety. For example the Fed caused the Great Depression by contracting the money supply by a third in the middle of a recession, killing US economic growth for decades. They are unlikely to repeat that mistake.

Yes. This is why they no longer operate on a gold standard, which de facto contracts the money supply (people want to hold "safe" gold rather than circulate money) in the middle of a recession

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#268

After a rather dismal first couple of runs I read the blog post for some hints. The best I found was to try to raise rates during the good times so there is wiggle room during downturns. I was able to get 443,904 by raising to over 10% during the initial prosperity period and was able to cut rates in half as soon as there was a crash. Ultimately I stabilized at around 3.5%. As of the time of this post I think that is…

I ran it four times, with four different starting interest rates, that never changed throughout the 240 months. The best run was the 0% one: 442670. All results: 2%: 238773 0%: 442670 50%: 21106 (early crash) 4%: 255726 Edit: Forgot to note that, while the other runs got the +12% iMac trees and the -12% drought/disaster events, the 0% run also got a -10% "loss of faith in the market" event thrown at it as well. So, 0…

If you try to keep inflation flat (what the central bank is supposed to do). You can maximize score regularly in the 440k - 450k scores. I had constant very low unemployment and wages were very high.

In reality, I agree though. Just putting to 0% and letting it ride required far less prediction ability and it worked out fine.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ran it four times, with four different starting interest rates, that never changed throughout the 240 months. The best run was the 0% one: 442670. All results: 2%: 238773 0%: 442670 50%: 21106 (early crash) 4%: 255726 Edit: Forgot to note that, while the other runs got the +12% iMac trees and the -12% drought/disaster events, the 0% run also got a -10% "loss of faith in the market" event thrown at it as well. So, 0…

If you try to keep inflation flat (what the central bank is supposed to do). You can maximize score regularly in the 440k - 450k scores. I had constant very low unemployment and wages were very high. In reality, I agree though. Just putting to 0% and letting it ride required far less prediction ability and it worked out fine.

It gets weirder, I just got a 442181 run out of a constant -0.50% interest rate.

It seems that the whole system tops off at a zero-effort 500K or something, and the best approach is to do nothing to mess it up, just keep things cheap and stay away.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#270

After a rather dismal first couple of runs I read the blog post for some hints. The best I found was to try to raise rates during the good times so there is wiggle room during downturns. I was able to get 443,904 by raising to over 10% during the initial prosperity period and was able to cut rates in half as soon as there was a crash. Ultimately I stabilized at around 3.5%. As of the time of this post I think that is…

It’s strange to present an analogy without something linking it to the thing at hand. Why do you think interest rates and economy are like racing a car at all and not like launching a rocket?

Most people mean "metaphor" when they say "analogy".
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