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Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

benoitessiambre.com

201–210 of 323 posts

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#201
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Saving money is equivalent to investing. Investing is pretty good for the economy.

There is no such relation. You can save cash which does not result in additional investment. When banks refuse to lend money, saving does not result in additional investment, in fact that is the cause of QE. The government feeling compelled to invest because people in the private economy refused to invest.

Cash behaves like an interest free loan to the central bank.

Stuffing cash under your mattress takes it out of circulation. An inflation targeting central bank will 'print' more money to make up for the missing cash.

That new cash will be spend. (Or, if people keep stuffing it under mattresses, the central bank can just keep 'printing' money.)

In a few years, when you take the money from under your mattress and buy yourself a nice ice cream, the central bank will notice that total spending has gone up, and decrease the amount of money in the economy to keep inflation on target.

It's exactly as if you had lend out the money from under your mattress to the central bank.

(And by 'print money', I mean that they will buy assets with newly created money. Typically they buy government debt, but they can also buy stocks or gold or foreign exchange or rare Lego sets.)

In any case, it looks like we don't actually disagree on what's happening, only on how to interpret it.

I hold that stuffing money under your mattress isn't the problem here. Central bank monopoly on printing money is.

If you stuff privately issued money under your mattress, it's the private issuer that can increase its balance sheet. No government-run central bank required for this.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#202
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My limited understanding, is (feel free to correct me): The problem with gold is that it's finite. It might be stable, but it's stable for a very small amount of money. The existing system allows us to create a huge supply of money that is used to drive the creation of these monster companies that end up doing things like inventing new microchip fabrication processes and iPhones. If you suck up all the money supply t…

Why does the supply of money matter when it isn’t consumed? I understand why the supply of, say, steel is important: because we consume x tonnes of steel to create a building, so a limited supply of steel limits our ability to build new buildings. However, when we use money we don’t consume it. It simply changes owner. Sort of moving through the economy unchanged in form. > If you suck up all the money supply the eco…

The gold standard (and by extension fiat because it is still very similar to a gold standard because of the existence of cash) causes artificial wealth transfers from the poor to the rich.

Let's say you own 1% of the gold of the economy. Notice that you also end up owning 1% of the savings in the economy. If an enterprising individual increases productivity and his company produces more, the value of gold will go up, leading to unearned gains in the value of your savings. Since you own 1% of the economy and the gold standard artificially enforces this against the will of other participants, you will gain a 1% share in the improvements of the company even though you have contributed nothing and taken away potential income from the entrepreneur. If the invention caused the economy to grow by 1% then the entrepreneur would expect to receive a 0.9% in the economy. That share would require everyone to give up 0.9% of their savings. Meaning your savings must go down to 0.91% of the economy. Of course, this doesn't happen in a gold standard which massively hurts the productive economy and that is exactly why there is a constant need to mine out more gold, to let new entrants into the economy as the old ones don't want to give up their gold and let it circulate in the economy. The gold standard is effectively a tool for violence and extortion.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#203
post #41
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. The idea that the world would burst into flames if central banks weren't there to micro tinker is not historically supported. It is far from a fringe viewpoint in the finance world that central banks have contributed more to volatility than to stability over the last 20 years.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early…

The Great Depression was unprecedented because prior to that no one had had the power to mess up the economy that badly. The Fed was extremely active. They made the Depression Great by contracting the money supply by a third when the economy was in recession.

Given the consequences of the Great Depression (WW2) it seems unlikely active central banks have been a net good.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#204

442,329 by controlling interest to keep inflation as close to 1.5% as I could (which isn’t always easy). 442,306 by just immediately setting interest at -0.5% and leaving it there entire time. Inflation varied widely, but seemed to correct itself around 12% and -4% and spent a lot of time near 0%. Can anyone explain an economic theory why that happened, or is the game not reflective of reality?

The negative interest rate works because your orchards don't go bust which in turn means there are enough apples for everyone putting downward pressure on prices.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#205
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early industrial economic model leant itself to boom and bust cycles eg massive instability Glad to see we put those patterns behind us /s

I mean, we haven't had a depression quite as world-shatteringly gigantic at the Great Depression since. Although I guess it isn't obvious if that's because the system we have now is somehow better, or if it is just the case that we've been more prosperous as a baseline since then, and so our various downturns haven't launched people into such a level of destitution.

Central banks and macroeconomists have learned a lot since the Great Depression, mostly of the “don’t do that again” variety. For example the Fed caused the Great Depression by contracting the money supply by a third in the middle of a recession, killing US economic growth for decades. They are unlikely to repeat that mistake.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#207

I think, as of writing, I have a new high score: 444823. I achieved this by trying to keep interest rates as high as possible. I started out with 5% which gradually increased to 7%. During the prosperity, I was mostly fixed at 13% and then lowered to 6% just before the drought. I kept the interest rate wiggling between 6% and 8% for the rest of the game (though I probably could've gone much higher until the people sp…

Play prosperous universe. It will make your head hurt.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are still gonna want the new iphone and latest suv. Having a hard money as the reserve currency doesn’t undermine the economy, quite the opposite.

How are they supposed to do that when a rich person A who earns more than he spends accumulates ever greater amounts of gold, leaving everyone else who wants to trade and don't care about trading with A stranded. Think about it this way. Germany keeps saving more euros. Greece and Spain are trading with each other. At some point all the money is in Germany, making it impossible for Spain and Greece to trade with each…

Rich people from Germany come to vacation/retire in Spain and spend money there.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#209

Why can't we just quit, leave the quantity of money static and and let the market decide the rates?

You can, but the market will reach negative interest rates and then everyone starts hoarding cash because the returns in the real economy are lower than the returns in the financial economy. When people abandon the real economy there will be unemployment and eventually countries go to war or alternatively think of peaceful ways to pointlessly employ their people. Pointless savings lead to pointless investments which lead to pointless jobs.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j5l_Oeg6kMo

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#210

This is a very nice toy model, perhaps the only surprise came while reading "profits are distributed equally as dividends to everyone". I was wondering if this turns the simulation into a combination of capitalism and communism? Not sure how to find a simple alternative, any ideas anyone? Thanks!

In capitalism profits are given to the capitalist i.e. owners of capital... This model is not simulating capitalism.
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