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Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

benoitessiambre.com

101–110 of 323 posts

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#101

This game needs a "gold standard" mode to see what happens to the toy economy with no central bank! EDIT: It would also be nice if the game paused around major events to give you more time to think & adjust. I found that the economy went off the rails if you don't react right away.

My limited understanding, is (feel free to correct me):

The problem with gold is that it's finite. It might be stable, but it's stable for a very small amount of money. The existing system allows us to create a huge supply of money that is used to drive the creation of these monster companies that end up doing things like inventing new microchip fabrication processes and iPhones. If you suck up all the money supply the economy might be stable in terms of inflation but it can't grow.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#102
post #68
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under certain Keynesian views, Fed policy is mostly irrelevant, and only fiscal policy matters. Or actual printing... which low rates and QE are very different from. Another view from the neoclassical school has a similar conclusion dubbed the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition. But others say Fed policy does matter because in the real world contracts and prices are sticky. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy-ineffe…

How is QE or low rates not money printing? Low rates causes higher private lending, borrowing creates money (fractional reserve banking). QE also creates money by Federal Reserve buying Treasury's bonds with printed dollars. Both of these are temporary, but we have had QE and low rates for over a decade now. QE was supposed to be unwound in 2018, but covid pushed it to new peaks.

https://www.pragcap.com/bernanke-explains-why-qe2-is-not-mon...

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#103
On the financial end of the spectrum, there's "american dream" [1] by Stephen Lavelle [2], an enigmatic fellow who releases almost all his games as open-source. Putting you in the shoes of a trader, the game is a strong contender in the argument for treating video games as art with its subtle cultural commentary (even if I don't agree with some of it ;p).

[1] - https://www.increpare.com/game/american-dream.html

[2] - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/02/increpare...

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#105
> A lot of real economic models involve advanced math and differential equations. The goal here was to keep this type of mumbo jumbo to a minimum to make it more easily understandable for those who like to right click view source (and more importantly to make it less work for me to build).

> mumbo jumbo

It's very efficient mumbo-jumbo, though. I've spent years learning maths, but not economics, so just show me the equations!

In fact I'm going to have a heated Lamport Moment and say that Math >>>>>> Code in matters such as this.

I have a very short attention span and this page just looks like a blur to me. Evidence: It took me 2 skim-throughs to even spot the phrase I quote. Maybe I'm dyslexic.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#106

This game needs a "gold standard" mode to see what happens to the toy economy with no central bank! EDIT: It would also be nice if the game paused around major events to give you more time to think & adjust. I found that the economy went off the rails if you don't react right away.

My limited understanding, is (feel free to correct me): The problem with gold is that it's finite. It might be stable, but it's stable for a very small amount of money. The existing system allows us to create a huge supply of money that is used to drive the creation of these monster companies that end up doing things like inventing new microchip fabrication processes and iPhones. If you suck up all the money supply t…

It's all fun and games until someone discovers ore deposits that would double world supply https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-s...

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#107

442,329 by controlling interest to keep inflation as close to 1.5% as I could (which isn’t always easy). 442,306 by just immediately setting interest at -0.5% and leaving it there entire time. Inflation varied widely, but seemed to correct itself around 12% and -4% and spent a lot of time near 0%. Can anyone explain an economic theory why that happened, or is the game not reflective of reality?

In the blog post (https://benoitessiambre.com/simcb.html) I explain why it's difficult to get inflation to rise very much under normal circumstances. I think it's mostly because I don't have a government doing deficit spending.

You can reach higher scores (through lower menu costs) if you try to maintain lower inflation (like 1% or lower), however keeping it too low can make it harder to keep stable and you will be penalized through menu costs if it destabilizes.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#108
post #70

I made this game in order to try to wrap my head around central banks, inflation and macroeconomics, in order to get a better understanding of the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the current period of high inflation. Here is a blog post that goes into further details: https://benoitessiambre.com/simcb.html

Can we scam little people with crypto using central bank scapegoating as well ?

As in, scam people and then scapegoat 'crypto bros' for the current financial crisis that has more to do with printing money than anything else?

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#109
post #61
post #40

I tried to keep inflation between 1.5-2% for the first 50 months and then decided to find out what happens if I YOLO permanently fix the interest rate to -0.5%. After the 240 months I somehow ended with GDP 442999 and 1.53% inflation. How come? Shouldn't I have a runaway inflation?

Similarly I immediately lowered to -0.25% and left it there, really quite stable and climbed gradually (not monotically, but close) to 442370. I assume it needs a bit of a tweak for negative inflations, or is limited by the events being fixed - 'people spend 12% less' is more likely to happen at higher interest rates for example. And in particular if we weren't leaving it fixed but had only just lowered it, (i.e. inc…

Isn't a negative interest rate basically UBI?

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#110
post #50
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early…

Yeah, these days we only have existential risk to our system via structural contagion twice per decade. Good thing we moved past that era! Those issues were real and went o longer than they needed to but also weren't as deeply structural as the issues today. Our issues are different but not better.

I don’t know what you would consider “deeply structural,” but not having influence over the money supply seems fairly structural. Going back further, the issues are larger: not having a central bank, not having a single currency, no deposit insurance, etc.
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