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Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

benoitessiambre.com

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Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#41

Post by pbourke »

anm89 wrote: post #24
jb12 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I found that the economy went off the rails if you don't react right away Sounds pretty realistic to me!

While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. The idea that the world would burst into flames if central banks weren't there to micro tinker is not historically supported. It is far from a fringe viewpoint in the finance world that central banks have contributed more to volatility than to stability over the last 20 years.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm.

Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early industrial economic model leant itself to boom and bust cycles eg massive instability.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#43

Post by Jakawao »

pbourke wrote: post #41
anm89 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. The idea that the world would burst into flames if central banks weren't there to micro tinker is not historically supported. It is far from a fringe viewpoint in the finance world that central banks have contributed more to volatility than to stability over the last 20 years.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early…

> The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early industrial economic model leant itself to boom and bust cycles eg massive instability

Glad to see we put those patterns behind us /s

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#44

Post by doubleunplussed »

BenoitEssiambre wrote: post #2

I made this game in order to try to wrap my head around central banks, inflation and macroeconomics, in order to get a better understanding of the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the current period of high inflation. Here is a blog post that goes into further details: https://benoitessiambre.com/simcb.html

Thank you so much! I've similarly been trying to wrap my head around monetary things recently, and as with learning anything in physics (my field), I believe you don't really understand a model unless you can code up a simulator.

It's been maddening not being able to find a comprehensive model of how all the bits fit together, and I have many times wondered if the lack of existence of a game like yours meant that no such model actually existed. Happy to be wrong!

And of course a game is a brilliant way to build intuition whether you know the equations of the underlying model or not.

I haven't played it yet but am greatly looking forward to it, really hoping to answer various gaps in my knowledge. Thanks again!

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#45

Post by FastMonkey »

yreg wrote: post #40

I tried to keep inflation between 1.5-2% for the first 50 months and then decided to find out what happens if I YOLO permanently fix the interest rate to -0.5%. After the 240 months I somehow ended with GDP 442999 and 1.53% inflation. How come? Shouldn't I have a runaway inflation?

Ha, I did the exact same thing. I guess the fed has it all wrong!

Edit: I guess it's not as fair to the player, but maybe there should be more randomness in there, or perhaps some kind of forcing function that makes things a bit less stable.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#46

Post by BirAdam »

jcfrei wrote: post #28
mmastrac wrote: post #11

This game needs a "gold standard" mode to see what happens to the toy economy with no central bank! EDIT: It would also be nice if the game paused around major events to give you more time to think & adjust. I found that the economy went off the rails if you don't react right away.

That would result in an economy with huge deflation: People consuming the bare minimum of apples needed for survival because their gold savings would appreciate each year in value.

If that were true then the Victorian era should not have happened.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#47

Post by BirAdam »

pbourke wrote: post #41
anm89 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. The idea that the world would burst into flames if central banks weren't there to micro tinker is not historically supported. It is far from a fringe viewpoint in the finance world that central banks have contributed more to volatility than to stability over the last 20 years.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early…

The Great Depression happened after the US central bank was created in 1913.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#49

Post by dpatru »

jcfrei wrote: post #28
mmastrac wrote: post #11

This game needs a "gold standard" mode to see what happens to the toy economy with no central bank! EDIT: It would also be nice if the game paused around major events to give you more time to think & adjust. I found that the economy went off the rails if you don't react right away.

That would result in an economy with huge deflation: People consuming the bare minimum of apples needed for survival because their gold savings would appreciate each year in value.

For decades computers and related technology have been dropping in price. Yet people still buy and the industry is one of the most prosperous in the economy.

Re: Show HN: A central bank simulator game with a realistic economic model

#50

Post by anm89 »

pbourke wrote: post #41
anm89 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. The idea that the world would burst into flames if central banks weren't there to micro tinker is not historically supported. It is far from a fringe viewpoint in the finance world that central banks have contributed more to volatility than to stability over the last 20 years.

> While there were panics and issues before the era of active central banks, most fo the time, things were calm. Wow - this is insanely inaccurate. Before the active central bank era (call it post-WW2), recessions lasted up to twice as long as they do during the modern era. Unemployment also peaked at much higher numbers: 25% during the Great Depression, for example. The pre-central bank localized agrarian and early…

Yeah, these days we only have existential risk to our system via structural contagion twice per decade. Good thing we moved past that era!

Those issues were real and went o longer than they needed to but also weren't as deeply structural as the issues today. Our issues are different but not better.

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