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The silent majority of experts (2012)

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Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#171

Post by maze-le »

whitepoplar wrote: post #59
maxk42 wrote: post #25

I think about this constantly while reading Hacker News. So many articles and comments by people whose level of enthusiasm doesn't match their experience. Try to voice a comment that goes against the flow of that enthusiasm and you'll be downvoted to oblivion, even if you speak with more experience and context than the masses. I'm horrified by some of the stuff I see here and feel like it's often useless to speak out…

Care to share some of the stuff you've been horrified by on here? I'd love to read more.

Anything even slightly critical about nuclear energy. Even if you are pro-nuclear but with certain doubts about some aspects of the technology or its role in society.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#172

Post by usrbinbash »

> That we're unable to learn from the silent majority of experts casts an unusual light upon online discussions.

This has been a problem with (and not just) online discussions since...well...ever. What is discussed the loudest or most frequent, isn't necessarily the most important topic in the field.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#173

Post by Karrot_Kream »

annyeonghada wrote: post #168
Karrot_Kream wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful. If they're reading this, they're already the type of person trying to find success. It's important to remember that a lot of these results about families and finances are _statistical_. There are a myriad of other factors, whether known or not, that lead to success and anyone reading this who think…

>by being excited and interested in trying to get out of my circumstances. There are a lot of people who are "excited and interested" and never amount to anything because of the above mentioned "circumstances" that you were able to overcome, given a series of factors: natural predisposition, hard work, luck, gravity of the initial conditions and so on. Textbook survivorship bias.

I acknowledged the role that luck played in my post, I'm fully aware that I'm a survivor. Unless you're saying my insight is incorrect, I'm simply saying what I think will improve the odds, not guarantee victory. I'm not sure why you're replying to me about this.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#174

Post by CM30 »

This article has a great point, though it definitely also depends on the field in question. The best web developers/software engineers may or may not be visible online, since they could be working on internal stuff at companies with NDAs, or dislike marketing, or whateber else.

But the top experts for a lot of 'internet first' fields will likely overlap heavily with those who are loudest about them online. The world's foremost experts in say, blogging, SEO or content marketing will probably be extremely active online, since their expertise is in large part about marketing themselves and their work. The best speedrunners, game modders and others in such communities will probably have a visible online presence, since the community only exists on the internet and someone who does well at one of these things has a decent chance of getting a YouTube/Twitch career out of it.

And on the contrary, I suspect a lot of fields with an older demographic will probably be more representative of the situation in this article, where many of the people who are best at them aren't used to the internet or social media, and stick to doing their work/hobby offline instead.

So it's very much based on the field. The world's best carpenter or sprinter might not be on Reddit or Twitter that much if at all, whereas the world's best Super Mario 64 player is probably going to have quite the internet presence.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#175

Post by DeathArrow »

Sometimes I have the impression that just small, vocal minorities of software developers are visible.

Some frontend developers using the latest trends in JS frameworks. Some FAANG developers doing hyped stuff. Some mobile developers who can effectively promote their apps. Some AI and ML developers doing the stuff that is reported in newspapers.

All the rest are unseen. The millions of developers using C++, C# and Java everyday to make the actual World work, are unseen. People working on financial transactions, traffic management systems, security systems, telecom and so on, don't have a voice. All that people that are hard at work so we can keep our current ways of living, are not seen. They aren't doing fancy things, they aren't using latest fads, they aren't being promoted in news bits.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#176

Post by [deleted] »

fleddr wrote: post #106
maxk42 wrote: post #25

I think about this constantly while reading Hacker News. So many articles and comments by people whose level of enthusiasm doesn't match their experience. Try to voice a comment that goes against the flow of that enthusiasm and you'll be downvoted to oblivion, even if you speak with more experience and context than the masses. I'm horrified by some of the stuff I see here and feel like it's often useless to speak out…

Horrified is a bit strong, but you have a point. There's a few themes that are strongly popular or unpopular by some type of community consensus. In those cases, it doesn't seem to matter what you have to say as minds are already made up. Another interesting effect I experienced is regarding expert credibility. When I found this place, I was impressed. I figured the world's top engineers are posting. I see them writi…

[deleted]

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#178

Post by zemvpferreira »

annyeonghada wrote: post #100
pvarangot wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tell myself it's the difference between starting adulthood at 14 or whenever your family fails you, and starting it at 24 or 26 after college. The extra years of "streetwise" usually come at an expense of early onset of burnout, for various reasons. Leaving your shell with the energy to take over the world at 26 usually results in more productive endeavors than when you are a teenager.

>The extra years of "streetwise" usually come at an expense of early onset of burnout I almost cried reading this sentence. I've never realized how my precocious adulting wasn't healthy: every adult compliments you about how "mature" and "responsible" you are. You're actually just anxious because you paternal responsibility on yourself : I had to basically raise myself. The cost of this "independence" has been that,…

There's still time, friend. If you have the means, see a therapist. You can undo plenty of damage before it undoes you, and keep the good from your forced growth.

Wishing you the best.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#179

Post by throwaway0a5e »

annyeonghada wrote: post #168
Karrot_Kream wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful. If they're reading this, they're already the type of person trying to find success. It's important to remember that a lot of these results about families and finances are _statistical_. There are a myriad of other factors, whether known or not, that lead to success and anyone reading this who think…

>by being excited and interested in trying to get out of my circumstances. There are a lot of people who are "excited and interested" and never amount to anything because of the above mentioned "circumstances" that you were able to overcome, given a series of factors: natural predisposition, hard work, luck, gravity of the initial conditions and so on. Textbook survivorship bias.

Where does personal agency end and circumstances begin?

A good work ethic isn't "luck". If someone has a good work ethic it's because the people in their life when they were growing up worked their butts off to give it to them. People don't escape poverty because of luck (look at lottery winner outcomes). They escape poverty after about three decades of hard work toward that goal, usually spread across multiple generations.

>Textbook survivorship bias.

Textbook "doesn't fit my narrative, find a way to discount it" bias.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#180

Post by michaelt »

carbonguy wrote: post #154
jollybean wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data is conclusive on Single Parent vs. Two Parent and it's not even close. The 'moralizing' is from those who want to equivocate. This is also from deep life experience myself, with close family and colleagues. In everything but the best scenarios: 'Everything Is Hard' in a single family household, whereas things 'Can Be Hard' in regular family scenarios. I think a 'single mentor' can make a big difference, but…

> I will be[t] $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation. I'd take the other side of that bet; in my experience, a parent who still feels the need to take on their adult child's domestic labor likely hasn't prepared them well for independence in other respects, such as managing their own education well enough to get good grades in university classes.

Eh, it's a bit culturally dependent.

My native culture prizes gender equality and self-reliance; has washer-dryers in every home; and doesn't care about wrinkled clothes. If a grown man from my culture needed help with his laundry, it's probably because his life's a shambles - if you're struggling with depression or something, that ain't a good sign for your exam success.

On the other hand, someone from a more patriarchal culture; where white goods aren't in everyone's reach; and they like clothes that need to be carefully ironed? That might just indicate they have the support of their very traditional parents.

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