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The silent majority of experts (2012)

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Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#151

Post by ggm »

This is very true. Self help books feed a mania for advice, and manage to imply the knowledge is pearls of wisdom when the truly wise are not reading or writing these books, or responding to the "how" question.

I don't count myself amongst the wise btw. But I am at times surprised by how age masks foolishness, and people ask me for advice which I wouldn't trust!

Richard Rhodes discusses the scientists at Los Alamos, confounding the more urbane partners: Fermi insisted on leading square dances at the saturday socials, despite not having danced the square in his life: he just spent some time beforehand watching how it was done. Apparently he did it perfectly. I consider that evidence of wisdom beyond words: He watched, he learned, he didn't ask. A scientists wife called Claus Fuchs "penny in the slot" because he said nothing, unless asked. He didn't volunteer. When you consider his role in history, maybe he was well schooled? A natural spy? Again, he didn't proffer advice, but he was very good at what he did (as were the Krogers, and many others. Whereas the amateurs recruited in the US were by and large bumbling fools)

I suspect spying-wisdom, like other wisdom, is not found in self-help books.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#152

Post by LAC-Tech »

peterangular wrote: post #22
insightcheck wrote: post #6

Yep. On a related note, when I was younger, I searched for advice from experts for how to develop expertise in studying and productivity on Reddit. It led to lots of highly-upvoted advice (including stuff like supplements, largely with few real benefits besides placebo), popular blogs by influencers (like Scott Young), and popular self-help books. However, the actual experts I knew in high school who later went on to…

> Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions (e.g. were professors or physicians), so they may have learned these strategies from them, versus inventing them independently. As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't. It doesn't even take financially or professionally successful parents. Many of my pe…

Many of my peers had middle-class parents working normal jobs who just loved unconditionally + put effort forward... the difference between them and those who had less than ideal upbringings is typically vast.

I think it's definitely a starting handicap, no doubt about it. But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful.

Without getting too touchy feely - I definitely had un-supportive, unstable, conditionally-loving parents. Was it a setback? Yes. Would I be financially ahead of where I am now had they been better? Probably. But you know what, I'm doing alright. Maybe not by HN silicon valley standards well ahead of the curve in my little first world country. Never lost ambition even if I stumbled a lot along the way.

So yeah if you're younger, and reading this, and a bad childhood is still messing with your mind - please don't think all hope is lost. It will be harder but not impossible.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#154

Post by carbonguy »

jollybean wrote: post #133
random-human wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't. This really gets lost in the traditional nuclear family argument. From personal experience, having both biological parents in the same house doesn't mean a healthy family environment, and no amount of moralizing is going to wish it into being. Also overlooked is the impact one can have through simple acts of…

The data is conclusive on Single Parent vs. Two Parent and it's not even close. The 'moralizing' is from those who want to equivocate. This is also from deep life experience myself, with close family and colleagues. In everything but the best scenarios: 'Everything Is Hard' in a single family household, whereas things 'Can Be Hard' in regular family scenarios. I think a 'single mentor' can make a big difference, but…

> I will be[t] $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation.

I'd take the other side of that bet; in my experience, a parent who still feels the need to take on their adult child's domestic labor likely hasn't prepared them well for independence in other respects, such as managing their own education well enough to get good grades in university classes.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#155

Post by Karrot_Kream »

LAC-Tech wrote: post #152
peterangular wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions (e.g. were professors or physicians), so they may have learned these strategies from them, versus inventing them independently. As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't. It doesn't even take financially or professionally successful parents. Many of my pe…

Many of my peers had middle-class parents working normal jobs who just loved unconditionally + put effort forward... the difference between them and those who had less than ideal upbringings is typically vast. I think it's definitely a starting handicap, no doubt about it. But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful. Without getting too touchy…

> But I'd be very wary in telling those people - if any are reading this - that they're just not going to be successful.

If they're reading this, they're already the type of person trying to find success. It's important to remember that a lot of these results about families and finances are _statistical_. There are a myriad of other factors, whether known or not, that lead to success and anyone reading this who thinks they aren't cut out for success should never let that get to them.

I also grew up in a similar family to you, but (other than the crazy amount of times I've gotten lucky) I distinguished myself from my peers in my income-depressed area by being excited and interested in trying to get out of my circumstances. Most didn't. So if you're reading this and worried you aren't as far ahead as your peers, don't. The fact that you're worried will go a long way.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#156

Post by jollybean »

carbonguy wrote: post #154
jollybean wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data is conclusive on Single Parent vs. Two Parent and it's not even close. The 'moralizing' is from those who want to equivocate. This is also from deep life experience myself, with close family and colleagues. In everything but the best scenarios: 'Everything Is Hard' in a single family household, whereas things 'Can Be Hard' in regular family scenarios. I think a 'single mentor' can make a big difference, but…

> I will be[t] $1000 immediately that kid will do well without knowing a single other thing about that family or situation. I'd take the other side of that bet; in my experience, a parent who still feels the need to take on their adult child's domestic labor likely hasn't prepared them well for independence in other respects, such as managing their own education well enough to get good grades in university classes.

Helping a kid through exams is not 'doing their domestic labour' for god sakes.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#157

Post by borroka »

jollybean wrote: post #135
pvarangot wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tell myself it's the difference between starting adulthood at 14 or whenever your family fails you, and starting it at 24 or 26 after college. The extra years of "streetwise" usually come at an expense of early onset of burnout, for various reasons. Leaving your shell with the energy to take over the world at 26 usually results in more productive endeavors than when you are a teenager.

I see what you mean, but let's not confuse 'productive' with 'lucrative'. Even a lot of people with seemingly 'good jobs', I would argue, are not necessarily providing a ton of material value. For example, I'm coming to the point where I believe the vast majority of 'Data Science' is 'Business Academia' and a giant pile of over-optimization and busy work. The surpluses are concentrated in groups that have power, but…

Data Science is a poor term (unfortunately, the right one, statistics or statistical modeling, was deemed to be "unsexy"), but the expertise is certainly very relevant in today's data-driven businesses. Think predictions, forecasting, clustering, A/B experiments, recommender systems. Yes, some parts of what's commonly called Data Science can also be called Machine Learning, then maybe Deep Learning can be called AI, and in the end it seems that whatever choice we make with definitions, it is largely a mess anyway. And, on the top of that, the definitions are situational.

There is certainly a lot of busy work in DS like there is a lot of busy work in any non-critical pockets of operations, software engineering included.

I don't know what "over-optimization" means. If it means that, for instance, that the accuracy provided by the models is greater than the business needs, sometimes that's true and I agree. But are other parts of the business at fault for not being, broadly speaking, responsive enough or it is an "over-optimization" problem?

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#158

Post by agumonkey »

peterangular wrote: post #22
insightcheck wrote: post #6

Yep. On a related note, when I was younger, I searched for advice from experts for how to develop expertise in studying and productivity on Reddit. It led to lots of highly-upvoted advice (including stuff like supplements, largely with few real benefits besides placebo), popular blogs by influencers (like Scott Young), and popular self-help books. However, the actual experts I knew in high school who later went on to…

> Less in one's control, their parents were financially successful or were in competitive positions (e.g. were professors or physicians), so they may have learned these strategies from them, versus inventing them independently. As I grow older, I see a huge divide between those who have/had parental support vs those who don't/didn't. It doesn't even take financially or professionally successful parents. Many of my pe…

Family lineage is a strong force in personal life and society too. The emotional baggage inherited forbids a lot of people to live fully or even healthy.

Re: The silent majority of experts (2012)

#159

Post by borroka »

peterangular wrote: post #45
dgb23 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in many cases it might be hard but in an unfair way. I think some people are just wired differently. It is easy for them to stay focused and disciplined for longer, so they never worry about it or try to seek help and just do the work. People who do seek help often have some weaknesses that they cannot seem to overcome by themselves. They are vulnerable and they can be exploited by snake-oil salesmen. Some ge…

I was a smoker for many years... everyone in the family smoked - father, mother, and brother. I was a dumb kid in an industrial town in Iowa - constant opportunity and social pull to consume nicotine. After awhile I didn't want to be a smoker anymore and found a self help book - "Allen Carr's Easy Way To Stop Smoking." Friends of mine suggested it, and I found a PDF and read it during a dead afternoon at work. Instea…

I was a smoker for many years. One day, I decided to stop. I did not read books or got any other support. I did not want to die of lung cancer (crossing fingers!).

I now occasionally a smoke a cigarette (say, once every month or two), something that, according to the vast majority of many ex-smokers, appears to be almost impossible to do.

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