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Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

nytimes.com

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Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#561

Solar and wind have a storage problem. Day-to-night storage is a solved problem, but summer-to-winter is very far from being solved. Batteries, pumped hydro, flywheels, compressed air are simply off by factors of 100x or more. There are just 2 plausible solutions: chemical storage, or massive overcapacity. Chemical storage means hydrogen, or ammonia, or iron powder, or some other substance that can undergo reversible…

> massive overcapacity

How bad of a solution is this? How bad does solar/hydro output get during the off season in most places (presumably wind is more consistent than those two when averaged out over shorter time frames than a whole year)?

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#562
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The storage problem has yet to be solved for the same reason why any nation has yet to solve the issue of pollution from fossil fuels. It cost money and any increase in energy costs is detrimental to growth. The insurance issue is similar identical to other energy sources. Why isn't hydro power insured in the case of accidental flooding? If they were it wouldn't be possible to run them at current energy prices. We do…

No. The storage problem has not been solved because we do not have the technology. There is no evidence that the technology os possible. The long term waste (not much in quantity, but it does mount up. A few million litres at the moment I believe ??) has to be stored for periods of time on the order of hundreds of thousands of years. There is no way we can write a warning sign that we know can be read for that long.…

>It is making future generations pay for our current consumption.

Okay, then in places where wind/solar/storage aren't up to snuff we'll just keep burning coal.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#563

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I don't think that's a common use of "unsolved at scale". We know how to do it, it just doesn't make economic sense right now. I mean, suppose you have hundreds of GW of storage of some form installed. You could just claim it's still not "solved at scale" because the global energy consumption is even higher.

The global supply chains for lithium batteries are already struggling to keep up just with current demand. Where are we going to get enough cobalt? Hopefully not DR Congo.

The advantage of lithium batteries is energy/weight and energy/volume. With grid storage, neither weight nor volume is much of an issue.

A couple years back, "60 Minutes" ran a segment of somebody developing grid batteries with seawater and dirt. They didn't store much energy per weight and volume, but who cares for grid batteries. I wonder what happened to this technology.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#564

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> Nuclear is not an load following source In France it is, and has been successfully for more than 33 years [1] [1] https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01977209/

Ok I didn't know that they implemented load following in France. However, note thatbbecause nuclear power cost is almost completely capex dominated so doing this essentially increases your power cost by the factor that you use for load balancing. So out of economic reasons you hardly ever want to not run a nuclear plant at 100%.

Seems like grid scale storage could "solve" this, in precisely the way it does for renewables (ie. Treat nuclear as a sun that shines 24/7 and build storage to allow you to generate a bit above the average and follow the actual usage curve with storage).

That is, assuming that grid scale storage is in fact viable.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#565

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Why? What will the rest be?

I know there are options like pumped water, compressed air, spinning disc. No idea how feasible they are at scale, but I can imagine a world where physical storage like that could be lower maintenance & cost in the long-term compared to chemical batteries. Even if less efficient, you can get enormous potential storage from pumped water with relatively simple machines compared to massive battery farms.

I know a fellow who is running a startup that moves a (very) heavy weight up a hill, and going back down it provides power. He says it is something like 90% efficient at energy recovery, whereas pumped water is far less due to friction in the pipes.

He also said the inertia of a falling weight is enormous, and would help stabilize the grid.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#566

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Do the same and use German data, and nuclear optimizes to 100%. The US has especially abundant wind and solar. I would very much like to see a similar model that includes a demand curve. Preferably, customizable demand curves, to allow for modeling of e.g. flatter curves due to electric vehicle charging at night.

Yes, Europe (and particularly eastern Europe) are better places for nuclear, because of higher latitude and (away from coasts) lower winds. This is all just delaying the crossing point though. Nuclear fans are betting nuclear's costs fall while renewables and storage run into brick walls and stop getting cheaper. It's not clear why one should assume this, or why an investor should bet on that outcome. And it is just…

Ok, but "I think renewables will get cheaper faster than nuclear" is a very different claim than "renewables are way cheaper than nuclear right now."

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what if it's used for chemical processes? To make it efficient, there is careful transfer of heat from the input stream to the outgoing streams, with compression/expansion to convert the heat energy back to work. Making this efficient involves just the kinds of components that are needed in a cryogenic energy store.

You correctly point out that air separation is made efficient by transferring the heat from the output stream to the input stream. After cooling air enough to isolate whatever chemical is needed (like nitrogen) the cold output stream is run back through the warm input stream to help cool the input stream. This also has the effect of warming the output stream back to ambient temperature. This is fine if you're separat…

You tell me: which component of a cryogenic energy storage system is not already in use in some process (air separation or otherwise)? One of the attractions of this sort of thing is it's composed entirely of things that are already quite mature, and that have existing supply chains.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#568

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It's a demolition of your nonsensical 5% number (which is also what-if).

In the state with the most solar built out in the US the curtailment is 5% https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49276 .

Which is of course meaningless, since curtailment increases with the amount of installed wind/solar. What matters is how much curtailment there would be in an optimal all-renewable energy system.

I tell you what: show me a cost optimized renewable energy system in which the electrolyzers have a capacity factor of 5%.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#569

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We've had demo reactors with various issues, none of which demonstrated they could compete even with burner reactors. I remind you the double standard involved criticizing renewables "at scale", so a few problematic breeder reactors won't dispel the hypocrisy.

For what it's worth, I'm not suggesting using breeder reactors as a primary source of electrical power, but as an option for reprocessing transuranic waste and spent fuel. So totally different levels of scale. Also, the main reason we haven't invested in breeder reactors is that it turns out uranium isn't actually scarce enough to justify it.

Oh but you have to use breeders (or perhaps sea water uranium extraction) for a global nuclear-powered economy. Burner reactors run out of sufficiently cheap uranium in less than a decade at that scale. That pesky "scale" thing again.

Re: Nuclear is back on the table for a green future

#570

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Everybody always says that solar + storage is cheaper. And sometimes there are even studies to support it. But if that's true where is it ?

Waiting for the CO2 taxes to rise high enough to drive off fossil fuels.

Many people support CO2 taxes to raise the price of fossil fuels when gas prices are low. When gas prices are high I see very few people cheering it on or attempting to claim credit for all their great work to raise the price.

It's tough to really get that ball rolling if that's your goal due to this marketing issue.

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