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Does the Tank Have a Future?

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Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#151
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We'll see. We have an all-volunteer military here in the US, and that won't change, at this point. The idea, as always, is to get more done with fewer people.

It'll change very fast once US gets into a major war. Say, with China.

That war (god forbid) might only take a couple of hours

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never say never, but you really don't want that to happen.

I didn't say anything about wanting it to happen. But if it happens, does anyone seriously believe that US could avoid re-instituting the draft?

There are a lot of voices that seem to believe that isolationism is the way to go and that this will protect their 'lifestyle' from being impacted by the war in Ukraine. It's interesting how apparently some of history's lessons are impossible to learn, the exact same thing happened in 1938 and the end result was a much bigger war.

Also, the degree to which the world economies are now interconnected make it next to impossible to believe that a major war in Europe would not impact other parts of the world, which is super naive. Time will tell but I fear that we're in for a very rough ride if this current war doesn't get stopped in its tracks before it can engulf more territories, which ultimately will happen.

The only good thing is that now that the Russians have shown their true goals that the bulk of the 'NATA did this' or 'The Ukrainians only have themselves to blame' people have something to chew on.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#153
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's a potentially useful idea. At this point, putting people in tanks is irresponsible. But that doesn't mean they couldn't be used as remotely-operated vehicles.

How could you figure? How would they be controlled while under communication jamming? Until autonomous AI exists we'll need people on the ground.

The same way that airplane drones are controlled, from a satelite in orbit directly above. To jam that you'd need to get yourself above the tank, which to be fair is probably doable to some extent, so there would have to be countermeasures for it. But it's not exactly impossible.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To paraphrase The Chieftan (who's video is linked elsewhere in this thread but I'll included here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 ), it's not about the tank's vulnerabilities, but the capabilities it provides that have yet to be provided elsewhere. ATGMs, RPGs, guided mortar rounds and switchblade drones are not offensive weapons that can take and hold ground. But infantry, supported by a tank which they…

Why do portable drones not offer the instant firepower?

If you're talking about DJI or equivalents they only have 30 minutes or so of flight time and can carry at most one bomb at a time. They can be useful in guerrilla situations but firepower wise it's not even in the same league as a tank with 40-60 cannon rounds and several thousand machine gun rounds.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#155
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to understand how "we" could not have prepared sufficiently. This conflict in Europe isn't a spur of the moment thing. Arguably it could have been in the making since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but even if you don't go that far back, then at least from 2014. It certainly didn't come out of the blue! I'll make my comment more assertive: I think "we" (for almost any value of "we") prepared for this.…

If war was the predictable outcome, Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language, not shelling cities. Obviously what Russia has done is reprehensible, but if Ukraine saw war as incoming I don't see why they took these aggravating steps.

>...Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language, not shelling cities.

This is an understandably myopic view. Especially now, as the whole charade of justification and "objectives" of russia's invasion in Ukraine is in full swing.

Perhaps, remembering that in putin's view, Ukraine is not an independent state, its existence is a mistake, the land is a sphere of russia's influence... well, the madman outright wants it "back" into the "empire".

Thus it has long been clear that no amount of pacifying or "non-irritating" is to alter such policy. Language, aspirations and affinities are simply pre-texts for the forceful grab.

Fundamentally, we're dealing with a clash of mentalities. One adopting to modern day and the one still stuck in the "age of empires".

To putin's russians, tank is a symbol of forceful conquest. So it's not going away. Perhaps, more images of the charred russian army tanks could break this perception... temporarily.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically you have put no thought into this except that you don’t like war. I think most people will agree with you that war is bad. But if you get attacked, then all you can do is either give up or defend yourself. Afghanistan chose to give up to the Taliban, and now their rights are being taken away. Ukraine chose to defend themselves, and the jury is still out on whether they’ll be successful and what the cost…

Plenty of people have put thought into what to do to end war. You don't need original thoughts from me. The natural corollary of someone attacking you is not to get into an arms race. Afghanistan didn't choose Taliban. Pakistan and Saudi chose Taliban and armed them enough to take over. War obviously works. What's going to happen in UKR is that the warlike will win and then naturally turn their guns towards the local…

> the warlike will win and then naturally turn their guns towards the locals

Whether they do that as a democratic government, a dictatorship, a paragovernamental entity, or a set of mobs makes all the difference in the world.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To paraphrase The Chieftan (who's video is linked elsewhere in this thread but I'll included here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 ), it's not about the tank's vulnerabilities, but the capabilities it provides that have yet to be provided elsewhere. ATGMs, RPGs, guided mortar rounds and switchblade drones are not offensive weapons that can take and hold ground. But infantry, supported by a tank which they…

Why do portable drones not offer the instant firepower?

They don't offer the same level of firepower. A portable drone may be faster employed than a helicopter, large drone, or close support aircraft, but it suffers from lack of payload. It also takes longer to get on target, and has it's own set of vulnerabilities. (The vulnerability argument being that even if it is expendable, a drone disrupted or shot down does not help your unit eliminate the threat it was facing.)

A large-caliber, direct-fire gun provides long range, precise, and instant effects. As The Chieftan explains: https://youtu.be/lI7T650RTT8?t=934 (timecode link provided.)

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say anything about wanting it to happen. But if it happens, does anyone seriously believe that US could avoid re-instituting the draft?

There are a lot of voices that seem to believe that isolationism is the way to go and that this will protect their 'lifestyle' from being impacted by the war in Ukraine. It's interesting how apparently some of history's lessons are impossible to learn, the exact same thing happened in 1938 and the end result was a much bigger war. Also, the degree to which the world economies are now interconnected make it next to im…

I completely disagree. You can't go preemptively flattening every country you don't like (I mean, we did for a little while and all it seems to have done is made a bigger mess.)

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To paraphrase The Chieftan (who's video is linked elsewhere in this thread but I'll included here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 ), it's not about the tank's vulnerabilities, but the capabilities it provides that have yet to be provided elsewhere. ATGMs, RPGs, guided mortar rounds and switchblade drones are not offensive weapons that can take and hold ground. But infantry, supported by a tank which they…

Why do portable drones not offer the instant firepower?

Because when a tank fires its APFSDS gun, the muzzle velocity is 1500 meters-per-second.

In contrast, a drone flies at 25 to 50 meters-per-second.

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To put it in concrete terms, a tank 3000 meters away will hit its target in 2 seconds. A drone 3000 meters away will take 1.5 minutes.

In contrast, the Javelin you launch will take 12 seconds before it hits the tank at that range. That's more than enough time for the tank commander to see the Javelin and return fire, killing you before the Javelin even strikes the tank. (This is why "fire and forget" is so important on a missile like the Javelin). So we can see that even a missile like a Javelin has a significant speed disadvantage on these long-range plains that exist on the Donbas region. Its a different fight than the typical heavy-urban environment that Ukraine was doing well in a few months ago.

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Its one thing to fight a tank in urban combat, where they can only see 200 meters out (too many buildings blocking your vision and the tank's vision).

Its a totally different thing to fight a tank on open plains, where 3000m worth of vision is common.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#160
It's easier to make a weapon that takes out a tank, than it is to make a tank that can defend itself to it.

Javelin missiles are just one thing, but cheap drones with simple rockets on them should be able to take out a moving force of numerous tanks.

Imagine having an arsenal of 20 tanks storming your city.

Now imagine having about 100 drones ordered from Amazon, outfitted with RKG-3 anti-tank grenades. One each. You can fly low, you can fly through the woods, and you can fly each individually operated drone right up to the top part of a tank, and boom.

No clever software automation. Just a drone that can lift something like 1 kg worth of anti-tank grenade.

You have 20 drone operators. You'll have 5 drones per tank. One after the other. Skip the already defeated tanks. Attack the tanks that will create a barrier when destroyed first, take natural barriers into account.

Your tanks can have all the power and shock and awe you might think they have, but any 12-year old will be able to take you out as if they were playing a video game.

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