Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just wish it was done earlier and more cheaply during otherwise good times.
Exactly, the best time to raise rates was 6 years ago when the economy was humming along well. Instead the fed kept them too low creating huge bubbles, which it's now in the process of popping. These next few years are going to be a lot rougher than they needed to be. This isn't just hindsight bias either. Plenty of people have been warning about exactly this problem for years.
Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
241–250 of 593 posts
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#242Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here is one example. "Not Even at $200 a Barrel: Shale Giants Swear They Won’t Drill More" [1] https://energynow.com/2022/02/not-even-at-200-a-barrel-shale...
First, the title is not the quote, the quote was "Whether it’s $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we’re not going to change our growth plans". Second, that has nothing to do with our production capacity, doesn't prove that "covid" caused us to drop our net export status, or that the industry is unwilling to fill production. It's one misconstrued quote from an exec. He was talking about not collapsing the price when we…
That is what you requested and that is what I provided. There are other articles if you would like to research them yourself.
The full quote is "“Whether it’s $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we’re not going to change our growth plans,’’ Pioneer Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said during a Bloomberg Television interview. “If the president wants us to grow, I just don’t think the industry can grow anyway.’’"
>Now that I've addressed your article, would you like to address the above administration policy decision I linked?
"Federal land accounts for about 24 percent of oil and gas production in the United States, mainly in the offshore Gulf of Mexico. But since companies with existing leases will not be affected, the near-term impact on exploration and production as well as royalties to states will be limited. With more than 26 million onshore acres and 12 million offshore acres already under lease, there is a deep inventory of exploration opportunities. "
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#243* Private car leases at near zero interest rate will stop. At one point it was sometime cheaper to lease than to buy a car for cash
* Housing bubble. Near zero central bank/bank interest rates has inflated a housing bubble. Higher interest rates will decrease housing prices since fewer buyers will be able to afford higher interest mortages.
* Tech bubble. Cheap interest has also funded some startups with non viable long term business ideas
* Electric scooter rental companies. There will be fewer electric scooters since the interest rate to lease them will be higher. Electric scooter rental companies will afford fewer scooters.
* Less investment companies buying up farmland. It will be more expensive to finance these deals
* High leverage tech stocks over schiller p/e 15 rate will deflate.
* There was no exponential startups growing forever. There was however debt growing an exponential rate. The world is still linear. Linear power production.
* Graphic cards for gaming will be more available for gamers again. Reason crypto currency mining will decrease deflate by higher interest rate not flowing as much into crypto.
* Tech bubble less tech startups will effect cloud vendor footprint. Fewer tech startups less need to rent cloud services.
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#244I know this may sound petty and the wording is regularly found even in the best editorial offices, but the engineer in me resists every time: the correct wording should be "by 0.75%-points" instead of "by 0.75%". Am I the only one who is bothered by this?
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#245Earlier quoted context omitted.
Mandate work from home capability for anyone who can work from home; prioritize oil consumption for non discretionary use cases where you have no choice but to move atoms vs bits. Agree with your thesis otherwise, no way to juice output in the short term, only shims until electrification ramps faster (which, I argue, should carry the same gravity and speed as a wartime effort, but alas I am not a politician). Edit: N…
Mind you, I think the electric future s 15-30 years away, not 8-15 - but the lifetime of a refinery is 40-50 years. Thats the issue, it wont pay for itself on a conventional amortization schedule.
Lots of folks interested in EVs when fuel is $5-6/gallon, which will remain for some time. Gotta scale up faster, build the machine that builds the machine and whatnot.
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/new-analysis-suggests-we-have-p...
https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-vehicle-sales-set-to-ri...
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#246Earlier quoted context omitted.
Related (but different): I'm wondering how much inflation will shift tax payers into higher brackets and increase the overall income for the government from those taxes.
You probably know this already, but I thought I'd pass on a correction to what is a common misconception. If you start making more money and end up in a higher tax bracket, only the amount of income in the new tax bracket is taxed at the higher rate, not the whole income. For example: Pretend you currently make $75,000/yr and the next tax bracket is at $80,000. And you get a nice raise to make your salary $85,000 thi…
(i.e. For an absurd example - suppose inflation is 100%. Last year you made 50K, this year you make 100K, which is the same in real terms (after inflation)). However, you will pay more of that 100K in tax than you would have last year, so your real income will decrease.
This tax drag can also happen for investments. If your investment goes up 100% and inflation is also 100%, you pay tax on the inflated nominal value of your investment even though the real value has not changed. Long term capital gains taxes are one way to reduce the impact of this - but they don't eliminate it altogether.
Tax brackets are usually (but not always) inflation-indexed to avoid this effect.
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#247Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Every single of the thousands of innovation that goes into an iPhone was subsidized by rich venture capitalists and rich early adopters Don't forget the governments which helped fund the basic research used to make such things, the middle and lower classes that pay more in property taxes so companies can be bribed to build factories, and other such things. Put another way it's a much more complicated picture than ju…
Wealthy people pay almost all the taxes. the top 10% pay 71% of taxes and the top 25% pay 87%. 75% of the country contributes nearly nothing but complaints.
Wow, this is pretty eye-opening.
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#248It is a joke now that people complained about babyfood and government said it will give money; only to get a reply of: no there just isn't any baby food delivered.
Increasing rates will likely have the opposite result. The goal of the Fed is to break the backs of people with low means. I am not sure why I should applaud that instead of the government doing its job and taking steps and establish agreements to stabilize supply of oil and food. Generally establish "world peace for trade" again.
P.S. Yes I know there is a war out there but right now U.S. oil companies are simply not improving supply to even pre pandemic levels.
P.S.2 We opened the economy too early, and by we I mean the government. You need to have the resources to run the economy. We did not.
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#249This is a typical overcorrection (the Fed is run by humans after all). US debt is over $23x10^12, so such rates are unsustainable even in the short term (12-24 months). Algorithmic Monetary Policy > Dictated Monetary Policy(TM) IMHO.
Re: Federal Reserve raises rates by 0.75%
#250Earlier quoted context omitted.
takes guts to do this and it was needed. Problem is that it will expose that most of the US economy is a sham that needed 0% interest rates to even fake growth. our "leaders" have been kicking the can down the road for a long time. US economy used to grow even with very high interest rates, now even a slight increase puts us into a recession.
Is this because of the transition to a service economy?
The reason "dutch disease" is a problem for resource producing countries is that manufacturing productivity growth is much stronger compared to commodity production. It's better to be a manufacturing powerhouse than it is to be a commodity powerhouse.
It's entirely plausible that services are the same way, it's better to make things for other people than to do things for other people.