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Does the Tank Have a Future?

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Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#61
Does infantry have a future, given what WWI taught us about their vulnerability to artillery and machine guns? Do (naval) ships have a future, given what WWII taught us about their vulnerability to torpedoes? Do air defenses or air forces have a future, given what happened in Mole Cricket 19 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19 )? Do...

Zzz.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand this comment. The anti-tank weaponry is an order of magnitude less expensive than the tank (some is several orders). The M1A2 Abrams has a unit cost of around 10 million USD (numbers from 2016, so likely higher now). The drones currently destroying tanks in Ukraine (Bayraktar TB2) had a unit price of around 5 million, although some estimates are as low as 1-2 million per unit delivered to Ukraine a…

It's the scarcity of the parts, not the overall cost. Javelins require rare-earth minerals (which largely come from Russia) and rare silicon chips that are in short supply worldwide. I edited my original post to include a link to an article about the difficulties in replacing the diminishing stock of anti-tank weapons.

Modern tanks also use minerals and chips, they're basically armoured computers. They also, obviously, take a huge amount of resources to produce, transport and train to use.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#63

Yes it does. See "The Chieftain: No, The Tank Is Not Dead" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 TLDW: Tank has a task on a battlefield and fact that you can easily kill it won't take that task away. Same goes for infantry and they are not going away either. On the other hand we don't see battleships anymore, because big guns were replaced by precise missiles with much more range.

The only reason you'd use tanks or infantry in a modern war is that you don't have enough drones and missiles. Maybe you're willing to climb into a tank after what we've seen in Ukraine recently, but that's all you, pal.

I'm not sure willingness matters as much in the military as you seem to think.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#64
post #27

Yes it does. See "The Chieftain: No, The Tank Is Not Dead" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8 TLDW: Tank has a task on a battlefield and fact that you can easily kill it won't take that task away. Same goes for infantry and they are not going away either. On the other hand we don't see battleships anymore, because big guns were replaced by precise missiles with much more range.

Is there a good rundown of every piece of weaponry and its corresponding utility and strategy somewhere? I'd love to update or correct my understanding of tanks, artillery, HIMARS, aircraft carriers, cruisers, littoral combat, submarine classes, F-22, F-35, AWACS, etc.

I used to get a copy of Janes Defense Weekly at work. It was always a good read when I was a young kid on the hill. They even used to put out a buyers guide for IFVs/LAVs. If you want to cut through the noise for good military analysis you usually have to drop some decent dough.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#65

I never understood why the tank tracks weren't targeted. They look easy to immobilize.

I believe that tank tracks break frequently and the tank will carry the spare parts required to make a repair.

Also if you look at a tank it's basically a shell around the treads - you have to hit it directly on the side or a small opening on the front, both of which may not disable the tread.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#66
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tank is 15-75 tons of armor, engine, chassis and gun. It costs millions of dollars per tank. An antitank weapon is 6-120 lbs of propulsion, controller and warhead. It costs between a thousand and tens of thousands of dollars per weapon. Economics refutes you.

A soldier is tens of thousands of dollars of training and gear. A bullet costs pennies. Thus soldiers have no place on the battlefield? I think you should watch Chieftains video and read some military theory. Simply being vulnerable to less expensive weapon systems does not make a unit/vehicle/soldier useless or obsolete.

Personally - I agree. I don't yet think we're at the point where tanks are obsolete.

That said... I think the niche the tank occupies right now is getting a LOT smaller.

Infantry screening is no longer enough. It's not just manpads and other anti-tank weaponry coming in from close quarters... it's gps guided missiles dropping on the tank from drones miles above.

We're definitely still going to see ground vehicles play an important part in combat, but I strongly suspect it's going to move back towards favoring nimble vehicles with specific utility. Not the current style of armored tanks.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#67
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason you'd use tanks or infantry in a modern war is that you don't have enough drones and missiles. Maybe you're willing to climb into a tank after what we've seen in Ukraine recently, but that's all you, pal.

I'm not sure willingness matters as much in the military as you seem to think.

We'll see. We have an all-volunteer military here in the US, and that won't change, at this point. The idea, as always, is to get more done with fewer people.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#68
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small drone warfare? The Ukraine / Russian conflict has degenerated into trench warfare with thousands of 155mm / 152mm artillery being shot into each other's positions per day. These are the kinds of conditions where tanks excel. Humans who try to walk at 3km/hr get blown up by shrapnel, even 100m away is "close enough" to cause a significant injury and take a human out of a fight. Tanks? They pretty much ignore eve…

In support of your statement, I'm impressed that Russian doctrine seems to rely so much on good ol' trusty massive artillery, of the dumb kind. I guess, if it works...

Both Russian and Ukrainian, also grad rockets. They're pretty much fighting each other with the same weapons.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#69
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tank is 15-75 tons of armor, engine, chassis and gun. It costs millions of dollars per tank. An antitank weapon is 6-120 lbs of propulsion, controller and warhead. It costs between a thousand and tens of thousands of dollars per weapon. Economics refutes you.

A soldier is tens of thousands of dollars of training and gear. A bullet costs pennies. Thus soldiers have no place on the battlefield? I think you should watch Chieftains video and read some military theory. Simply being vulnerable to less expensive weapon systems does not make a unit/vehicle/soldier useless or obsolete.

Indeed, if you value a soldier's life the same as a human's life, you really don't want them on the battlefield any more than absolutely necessary to defend against the invaders.

Spears and catapults and bows make your soldiers effective dozens of yards away from the enemy.

Rifles get your soldiers to a hundred, sometimes two hundred yards away.

Artillery and drones make your soldiers effective up to a few miles away.

The further away you can keep your soldiers while accomplishing your goals, the better.

Re: Does the Tank Have a Future?

#70
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to understand how "we" could not have prepared sufficiently. This conflict in Europe isn't a spur of the moment thing. Arguably it could have been in the making since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but even if you don't go that far back, then at least from 2014. It certainly didn't come out of the blue! I'll make my comment more assertive: I think "we" (for almost any value of "we") prepared for this.…

If war was the predictable outcome, Ukraine should probably have been more dovish towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East, ie. not banning Russian language, not shelling cities. Obviously what Russia has done is reprehensible, but if Ukraine saw war as incoming I don't see why they took these aggravating steps.

Let's just say I find your comment very on point. I would like to discuss this, but I don't think this is the best venue, and also this is a very sensitive topic and people are likely to be upset. And I wouldn't blame them.

I did want to say your observation is astute.

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