Any predictions on how Fed will react and the possible impacts and outcomes of the Fed rate hike?
Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
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Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#2The WSJ and some investment banks have said 75bp is likely. That's my guess, although 50bp is also possible. The Fed does not like to shock the markets, so I think 100bp is very unlikely.
I wonder how high Fed Funds will have to go. The Fed Funds futures market prices a 3.8% rate by May 2027. Historically, Fed Funds has risen to at least the level of inflation, which is currently 8.6%, during a tightening cycle.
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#3Pretty sure it will be 75bps at this point. Bank of Canada will be making the same move in July.
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#450bps. Fed rarely surprises the market (so either 50bps or 75bps) plus 50bps gives the market a bit of breath that it needs, given that it got hammered pretty badly.
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#5def 50 bps. i will be very shocked if it is not 50bps. NOw, 0.75bps is questionable but given how behind fed is it is probable but they are in the business post '08 of not surprisng the market.
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#6Expectations are overwhelmingly for 75bps. Prior to yesterday, 50bps was expected.
- https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#7Treasuries historic extreme overbought. Perhaps peak? Retreated in Fed expectation for 75bp hike now and july priced in. Thats massive tightening! No need for panic, just a bumpy landing. Just realize inflation is beyond any one institution's control and we now have competition. Alternate monetary tools in synthetic and digital currencies designed to stabilize prices ;)
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#8Expectations are overwhelmingly for 75bps. Prior to yesterday, 50bps was expected. - https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...
Exactly. Not sure what the point of these articles are with the futures implied probability.
The probability right now of 225-250 for July is incredible as well.
Re: Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?
#9def 50 bps. i will be very shocked if it is not 50bps. NOw, 0.75bps is questionable but given how behind fed is it is probable but they are in the business post '08 of not surprisng the market.
Well prepare to be shocked then.