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Scotland starts renewed case for independence

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Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#691

Post by Gordonjcp »

Emma_Goldman wrote: post #467
randomsearch wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1] How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?

Scotland's deficit is persistent. Between 2014-15 and 2019-20 it averaged 9.2%, compared to 3.2% for the UK as a whole. [1] Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn. Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is c…

> Scotland's deficit is persistent.

Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow.

What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#692

Post by Gordonjcp »

DonaldFisk wrote: post #430
Emma_Goldman wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea what you are talking about. In the UK general election citizens of all realms of the UK vote, meaning that Scotland being more left-wing has led to comparatively more left-wing UK governments than would be the case in its absence. So 'if you want rid of the Tories', Scotland is a great asset.

The union worked well as long as voters in Scotland and England voted similarly, but that hasn't been the case since the 1970s. Scottish voters only rarely influence the outcome of elections to the Westminster parliament, because even thought they vote differently, they only make up about 10% of the GB population (Northern Ireland has different political parties). Almost always, whatever the English electorate votes…

> In the few exceptions where England voted Tory but got Labour because of Scottish votes, how was that fair on England?

That hasn't happened. The UK gets the government England votes for.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#693

Post by hypertele-Xii »

native_samples wrote: post #645
hypertele-Xii wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World peace sounds dystopian to you?

One world government would be so ineffective, totalitarian and corrupt that it would be in a state of either constant uprising or permanent heavy handed suppression. It would definitely not be "peaceful" except in the sense that an effective police state is "peaceful" because anyone who suffers from it is crushed, before they even get to the point of being able to disrupt the peace.

How would an ineffective, totalitarian and corrupt goverment manage to supplant all the existing ones? I think that if a world government manages to form, it cannot be any of those things. To unite all the peoples of Earth it has to be efficient, democratic, and just.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#694

Post by enriquto »

gadders wrote: post #625
enriquto wrote: post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is a certain tension between wanting to be an independent country, and then also wanting to join the EU Not necessarily. For example, regarding official languages, there's no way that Gaelic would be an official EU language if Ireland was not directly part of the EU. And if Catalonia gained its independence, then Catalan would likely become an officially recognized language in the EU (which it isn't, due to s…

So they could have a language, but lose most of everything else?

That's a pretty big deal, actually... imagine (assuming that you are an English monolingual) that suddenly the geopolitics around your city change, and you can not live your daily life using English anymore. You need to learn another, foreign language, that becomes the sole official language. Would you be happy, even if you kept "most of everything else" ?

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#695

Post by native_samples »

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #693
native_samples wrote: post #645

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One world government would be so ineffective, totalitarian and corrupt that it would be in a state of either constant uprising or permanent heavy handed suppression. It would definitely not be "peaceful" except in the sense that an effective police state is "peaceful" because anyone who suffers from it is crushed, before they even get to the point of being able to disrupt the peace.

How would an ineffective, totalitarian and corrupt goverment manage to supplant all the existing ones? I think that if a world government manages to form, it cannot be any of those things. To unite all the peoples of Earth it has to be efficient, democratic, and just.

By exploiting people with views like yours, and by hiding the truth about it's own nature? Look at the EU for an example of how to do this. The hard core remainers are all convinced anyone who doesn't like the EU is brainwashed, racist, stupid or all three but they struggle to keep up in a debate involving the details of what the EU really is and how it works. That's what converted (deconverted?) me: realising at the start that my pro-EU position was based on the sort of wishful thinking your comment implies. It's all about cooperation and world peace, right? Then I listened to the Brexit campaigners and discovered that I had no idea what was really going on in Brussels. It was very far from the friendly face.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#696

Post by scott_w »

brigandish wrote: post #687
scott_w wrote: post #685

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given Farage was also preparing the ground to re-run the Brexit referendum when he thought he was going to lose it, I would think the answer is obvious.

How is that relevant? I also wonder how two wrongs make a right, perhaps you could illuminate me on that.

Where did I say it was wrong?

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#697

Post by ncmncm »

brigandish wrote: post #684
ncmncm wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's none of your business why they want to call a referendum, or why anybody would vote as they would, or how they would vote, individually. There may be as many reasons as votes. You will of course vote on it as you please, or not vote, and it's also nobody else's business whether or how you voted, or why. You are free to announce how you will vote, and why. And you can change your mind afterward, and vote the oppo…

> It's none of your business why they want to call a referendum The intentions of politicians are not my business and that is "absolutely elementary civics". That isn't credible. As to the rest, obvious and irrelevant. When did I make any comment on someone else's right or reasons to vote? I didn't, thank for noticing enough that you refrain from attempting to use it to obscure the issue at hand - your claim about wh…

Politicians are expected to do what voters are demanding.

They can guess reasons why they think voters want it, and some voters may suggest reasons they think will be persuasive. The pols might offer reasons, too, but they don't really know, so you won't really know either.

And, it doesn't matter. You will vote for, against, or abstain, regardless. People can try to persuade you, but they are not obliged to tell you the truth about their own reasons. The pols, anyway, just want to get elected again and hope that supporting or blocking a referendum vote will do that for them. That is their actual reason. but it doesn't help you any.

If you really believe everybody is telling you the real reasons why they do, promote, or block this or that, I have a bridge to sell you.

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#698

Post by Emma_Goldman »

Gordonjcp wrote: post #691
Emma_Goldman wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scotland's deficit is persistent. Between 2014-15 and 2019-20 it averaged 9.2%, compared to 3.2% for the UK as a whole. [1] Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn. Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is c…

> Scotland's deficit is persistent. Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow. What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.

That blindingly obvious fact is why I wrote 'implied deficit' in the parent comment. Scotland has public expenditure and tax intake figures. There are things you need to apportion - like oil revenues and UK debt obligations - but even with generous assumptions, if it became independent it would be running a large deficit. This isn't just a random figure.

This is a good overview:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#699

Post by smcl »

reillyse wrote: post #657
smcl wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> very very poor and depressed country Scotland suffered greatly from the decline of a few key industries in the 70s and 80s so and parts of it are indeed poor and in decline. But if you're to categorise a country by its very poorest areas, you'll end up saying the USA, France, England are very very poor and depressed. Scotland isn't Norway - that ship has long sailed and we should discard any ideas that oil wealth c…

True, it's not in the poorest of European countries, so maybe "very very poor and depressed" is not accurate. I feel it is a lot poorer than it should be though and whenever I visit Glasgow, Edinburgh or Aberdeen they don't feel vibrant and alive, they feel depressed, like everybody who wants to make a change has left. The oil situation is definitely worth talking about. Not because I think the English should give th…

Couldn't have said it better myself. I think we can learn from how both Norway and Shetland handled things. While not as famous as Norway's sovereign wealth fund, Shetland did quite well out of the Sullom Voe field: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-27138927

Re: Scotland starts renewed case for independence

#700

Post by bennysomething »

native_samples wrote: post #641
atoav wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am an outsider on the topic, but wouldn't such a stark change of the political landscape as Brexit be a really valid reason to ask the question again? After all, independence before would have meant exiting the EU, while it now could mean re-entering it. Independence is ultimately the question about how a region wants to see itself in the world, and the alliances you are in are a big factor in that qestion.

"I am an outsider on the topic, but wouldn't such a stark change of the political landscape as Brexit be a really valid reason to ask the question again?" You could argue that, but, the nationalists never did. Instead they said the issue would be categorically resolved by the referendum for an entire generation. Perhaps if they were a bit smarter they'd have thought ahead and caveated their promises, but they wanted…

Well said
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