Live data from Hacker News

If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

99d.substack.com

61–70 of 120 posts

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#61
This was written by a VC who has no track record as an operator or founder.

The only consistent advice I have ever gotten from the most financially successful people I know (many worth >$100MM) has been to never give up. Some of them took decades to get to even moderate success.

The last decade has been an illusion of how quickly you can get rich starting a company. It can take years to see payoff and it is not always obvious.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#62
We decided to persevere through hard times by mostly annually checking 'is tech X / market X / milestone X being reached?', and then ahead of time updating the same 'in 1 year, will...'. Beliefs got validated, we went from default dead to default alive, and now growing & hiring without really caring about the frozen capital markets beyond how to help our customers through their side of it. Especially in something like category creation and deep tech, this can be a long marathon.

But it also comes down to personal goals. If I was in it for the $, we would have been Google employees years ago and many m&a offers earlier. Shutting down can be the right move, so depending on the goals, different questions to ask.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I burnt years of my life following advice like this when I was young and didn’t know better. If your formula is sufficiently wrong, which is the rule not the exception, you can’t make up for it with perseverance. There’s a selection bias in these stories you hear. Stories about people who gave it their all and failed aren’t popular.

What would you do differently? How do you know now that you were wasting your time? These moments make you more powerful than ever to be able to articulate why those precious (auto corrected but worked) times were not the myths you heard.

Guess: when you validation of the problem, validation that there is money to fix the problem, but don't yet have validation that your particular solution or business mode has product-market fit.

Though I've worked at a few startups, I don't have enough experience to know to know the above generally applies. But if there isn't a market for your product, no amount of effort is going to fix it. I don't mean existing market, sometimes good products make their own category ... but you need to have evidence that is true.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#64
post #53
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's up with the weird Elon hate recently? I don't care for the guy one way or another, but it's just bizarre. Plus, I have friends that worked for both Tesla and SpaceX and from what I hear, apart from being big and corporate-y, it's a pretty awesome place to be at.

It is not weird. He is the world's biggest grifter. Precisely, a great deal more of what he says is a lie than is true, and he has profited more from his grift than anybody except (maybe!) Putin. Pedo Guy. Hyperloop. Full Self-driving. Electric truck-tractor. Cybertruck. Sub-orbital passenger service. Sub-orbital freight. One-day turnaround. Mars Colonization. (To be clear: Starship, even 1000 of them, is totally ina…

> He is the world's biggest grifter

I mean, this is a bit dramatic, don't you think? Or do you not know who Jordan Belfort and Bernie Madoff are? Apart from annoyingly trolling Twitter, I don't really think Musk's really done anything that terrible.

Just seems like weird and reactionary "rich guy = bad" groupthink. I remember when everyone hated Bill Gates, but I guess now he's a humanitarian so it's totally cool.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#65

This was written by a VC who has no track record as an operator or founder. The only consistent advice I have ever gotten from the most financially successful people I know (many worth >$100MM) has been to never give up. Some of them took decades to get to even moderate success. The last decade has been an illusion of how quickly you can get rich starting a company. It can take years to see payoff and it is not alway…

Well, yes, but let's bear in mind that there's a big confirmation bias there. Were these hundredaires more or less willing to give up than your ordinary founder who ends up with nothing after a few years to a decade at the wheel of a zombie company? Have they never given up on anything at all?

Extraordinary people can fail and regular people can make a lot of dough. I've met with a few billionaires myself and I have to say I didn't find them to be a different class of human. Just luckyer, from good families and with a very good sense of timing. Obviously very good at what they do. But fundamentally not that different from you and I.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#66

This was written by a VC who has no track record as an operator or founder. The only consistent advice I have ever gotten from the most financially successful people I know (many worth >$100MM) has been to never give up. Some of them took decades to get to even moderate success. The last decade has been an illusion of how quickly you can get rich starting a company. It can take years to see payoff and it is not alway…

Well, yes, but let's bear in mind that there's a big confirmation bias there. Were these hundredaires more or less willing to give up than your ordinary founder who ends up with nothing after a few years to a decade at the wheel of a zombie company? Have they never given up on anything at all? Extraordinary people can fail and regular people can make a lot of dough. I've met with a few billionaires myself and I have…

I am not by any means calling it an absolute. But the data points tilt in favor of working through the pain and difficulties instead of throwing in the towel at the slightest speed bump.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#67
post #53
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's up with the weird Elon hate recently? I don't care for the guy one way or another, but it's just bizarre. Plus, I have friends that worked for both Tesla and SpaceX and from what I hear, apart from being big and corporate-y, it's a pretty awesome place to be at.

It is not weird. He is the world's biggest grifter. Precisely, a great deal more of what he says is a lie than is true, and he has profited more from his grift than anybody except (maybe!) Putin. Pedo Guy. Hyperloop. Full Self-driving. Electric truck-tractor. Cybertruck. Sub-orbital passenger service. Sub-orbital freight. One-day turnaround. Mars Colonization. (To be clear: Starship, even 1000 of them, is totally ina…

Of all the people to call a grifter you choose the one who's doing the most to solve climate change, pushing forward EVs and space, is employing thousands of great engineers and inspiring new generations of engineers?

Get a grip.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#68
post #64
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not weird. He is the world's biggest grifter. Precisely, a great deal more of what he says is a lie than is true, and he has profited more from his grift than anybody except (maybe!) Putin. Pedo Guy. Hyperloop. Full Self-driving. Electric truck-tractor. Cybertruck. Sub-orbital passenger service. Sub-orbital freight. One-day turnaround. Mars Colonization. (To be clear: Starship, even 1000 of them, is totally ina…

> He is the world's biggest grifter I mean, this is a bit dramatic, don't you think? Or do you not know who Jordan Belfort and Bernie Madoff are? Apart from annoyingly trolling Twitter, I don't really think Musk's really done anything that terrible. Just seems like weird and reactionary "rich guy = bad" groupthink. I remember when everyone hated Bill Gates, but I guess now he's a humanitarian so it's totally cool.

Bill Gates, Bernie Madoff, and Jordan Belfort are smaller grifters, the latter two much smaller. (Gates, additionally, was tight with Jeffrey Epstein for decades, also a much smaller grifter.)

Rich does not mean bad. Grift is bad. I think there is a difference. Or do you mean that nobody can be that rich without being a grifter? That might be true, but I don't think of Warren Buffet as one. Or even Jeff Bezos.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#69
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's up with the weird Elon hate recently? I don't care for the guy one way or another, but it's just bizarre. Plus, I have friends that worked for both Tesla and SpaceX and from what I hear, apart from being big and corporate-y, it's a pretty awesome place to be at.

He’s of the wrong tribe now it seems

No.

Re: If it isn't going to work, just shut it down

#70
post #55
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compare it to water energy storage. Water is 1kg/L. Concrete is 2.4kg/L. Therefore, the volume of concrete lifted is 40% the volume of water you would need to store the same amount of energy. Here's the biggest water energy storage facility in the US: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Dominion+Bath+County+Pumpe... Cost of the water for that facility? $0/L. Equivalent cost for concrete? $0.15/L ( https://www.google.co…

> like thousands or tens of thousands of the motor/generator devices. I can't imagine the cost. ? The number of motor/generator pairs is proportional to the charge/discharge rate of the system. I'm not saying that because I'm an insider or have any special knowledge, I'm saying that because nothing else makes sense . So the question is whether it's cheaper to maintain a bunch of cranes and miles of steel cable and pu…

You also need hundreds of motors to shunt the blocks from their penthouse apartments to the elevators and back.

Hydro power dams and generating stations have been through thousands of serious earthquakes, worldwide, over more than a century. A condo penthouse packed with concrete blocks? Not so much. We have a lot of experience with earthquakes and stone blocks stacked high without mortar. The name for those is "ruins".

Post reply on HN